NL Daily Notes - September 5th, 2012

Ian Desmond (SS - WAS): Desmond's magical 2012 season continued on Tuesday as he racked up 4 RBI's in the first two innings of an 11-5 win over the Cubs. Desmond knocked out his 20th HR and 26th 2B of the season in the game and is now hitting .289/.324/.504. The .215 ISO Desmond possesses is nearly double anything he's ever done at the big league level and would also represent a 30 point jump over his best power season in the minors. In fact heading into the 2012 season, Desmond had posted just one MONTH in his entire career when his ISO was above .195 and it came in September of 2009 when he was first called up. To put it bluntly... I'm not sure anyone could have predicted this season. A look at Desmond's peripherals doesn't reveal much of an explanation either. Desmond is swinging at more pitches outside of the strike zone than ever before (38% chase rate) and his swinging strike rate (11.6%) is a career worst as well. He is certainly striking the ball more consistently with power as evidenced by a jump in his overall extra-base hit rate (10.9% vs. career 8.1%), but the astronomical jump in the slugging percentage and ISO are largely driven by a 18.1% HR/FB Rate that is 8-11 percentage points above his recent years' performance. Desmond will turn 27 later this month so it's not surprising to see some of the power skills improve this year, but the current rates seem pretty exaggerated.

Adam Eaton (OF - ARZ): Although September can be a bit of a confusing portion of the year for fantasy owners, it sure doesn't lack news-flow or entertainment. The Diamondbacks called up top OF prospect, Adam Eaton, on Tuesday and he immediately made his debut at the top of the Arizona lineup on Tuesday night. Eaton's a sabermetrician's dream as a prospect, but hasn't been considered a truly elite prospect from most scouting services. At 5'8, 185 lbs he lacks ideal size to play a corner OF position but isn't quite the defender to hold up long-term in CF. He does possess a bit of a speed (44 SB's in 2012), but his high slugging percentages in the minors are largely driven by favorable hitting environments and high batting averages. The things he does do well, and frankly he's done them exceptionally well at the minor league level, are draw walks and hit for average. Eaton's posted BB Rates above 10% at every stop in his minor league development with the exception of AAA this year where he's posted a pretty solid 9.4% rate. Along with the strong BB Rates, Eaton's hit above .300 at every level while compiling a career .355/.456/.510 line at the minor league level. His consistently high BABIPs (.370+) are supported by strong LD Rates and above average speed which coupled with the good zone command make him a threat to contribute in average. Eaton reminds me quite a bit of one of my favorite Cubs prospects in the last 10 years: Matt Murton. Murton didn't put together much of a major league career, but it wasn't really his fault as he hit .286/.352/.436 in over 1000 career PA's and has now gone to break Ichiro's single-season hit record in Japan. Eaton does have a bit more speed than Murton, which will help serve him as a fantasy asset, but he has less of a clear long-term path to playing time. With Justin Upton and Jason Kubel locked up in corner OF spots, Eaton will have to prove he can handle CF in the near-term to draw playing time or be the beneficiary of an offseason trade (Upton perhaps?) to find a place next year. For fantasy owners he's worth a speculative add in almost all formats because of the hitting environment he plays in, but is going to best be used in 14 team or deeper leagues with daily transactions where he can be spot-started. With the depth in the DBacks OF I expect playing time to be spotty in September. Long-term I see Eaton as a potential .300/.360/.430 type hitter whose speed will determine how park-dependent his fantasy value is.

Shaun Marcum (SP - MIL): Marcum struggled for the 2nd consecutive outing as he allowed 4 ER's on 7 hits and 1 BB over 5 2/3 innings. Marcum was victimized by the HR ball, allowing 2 of them, as he continues to struggle with fly balls (50% rate for the game) and velocity (85 mph - avg FB). Those aren't new issues for Marcum, but they have been a bit more exaggerated since his return from the DL. With a challenging matchup (@STL) on-deck, Marcum owners should strongly consider reserving him. Marcum has yet to throw a quality start since his return, despite facing weaker competition (@PIT, @CHC, @MIA). When Marcum is right he's a nice mid-rotation fantasy starter, but a history of 2nd half struggles (4.18 ERA vs. 3.36 ERA in the 1st half) coupled with the arm problems Marcum has dealt with this year make it tough to treat him as anything more than a matchups play currently. After not exploiting some of the favorable matchups of late, owners should exhibit caution with the Brewers right-hander.

Jordan Pacheco (3B - COL): Back in spring training when I was assigned the Rockies for our team coverage, I highlighted not one but TWO potential catcher-eligible sleepers in Wilin Rosario and Jordan Pacheco. Rosario has been the breakout candidate as he's swatted 23 HR's and earned himself a spot in the Top 10 at his position, but Pacheco hasn't been so bad either. On Tuesday night Pacheco launched just his 4th HR of the season, but improved his 2012 line to .313/.344/.428. In the preseason I noted Pacheco didn't have much in the way of power or speed, but what he did have was strong line drive skills that would translate to batting average production and enough positional flexibility that he could build value in quantity of AB's. Turns out both were right as Pacheco has posted an incredible 29% LD Rate in nearly 400 PA's. His good contact skills and line-drive rates will always play up the batting average (especially in Coors), but this might be a one-year wonder in terms of fantasy value for Pacheco. Defensively he's well below average at 3B and the Rockies have identified Wilin Rosario as the backstop of the future. Pacheco could settle in as a super utility type player but with defensive positioning limited to C/1B/3B the AB's will be sparse. Enjoy the production as the AB's pile up in a rebuilding year for the Rockies, but don't expect Pacheco to rack up too many more 450+ PA seasons without showing significant improvements in his power or finding a home defensively.

Jayson Werth (OF - WAS): Werth has been phenomenal since returning from the DL as he entered Tuesday's game with a .346/.419/.490 line in 104 AB's since being activated. Werth only added to that total with a 4-5 effort that included 2 more runs and another 2B and RBI. On the season Werth has recouped some of his value by cutting down his strikeouts and putting a lot more balls in play. Once out of Philadelphia Werth's power numbers haven't been the same but this year he's cut his K Rate down by 8 percentage points and his BABIP has rebounded to .384 (.286 last year). Unfortunately for those excited about the prospects of Werth's performance continuing, there isn't a lot of solid evidence to support it. While Werth has cut down on his K's, he's done so despite chasing more pitches outside the zone and racking up more swinging strikes than he did last year. His overall swinging strike rate is still down below his career levels, but should not support the giant drop in K's he's experienced. In addition the .380+ BABIP has come with a LD Rate (18%) that is 2 percentage points below his career average. We expected Werth to bounce back nicely when healthy this year, but a big part of that expectation was some subtle rebound in skill. So far we've gotten much of the rebound in performance, but in order to expect it to maintain, we need to see some improvement in skill. At 33, that would appear unlikely going forward. Owners can continue to ride out Werth for this year's production, but there's a meaningful chance his performance pace slows down this year and gaps down back closer to 2011 levels in 2013.

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