Jhoulys Chacin (SP - COL): Chacin picked up the win on Thursday, but that was about the only positive to come out of another uninspiring start. Chacin allowed 3 ER's on 7 hits and 4 BB's over 5 innings of work against the Cubs. He struck out just 2 and continued to struggle generating ground balls (42% for the game). Coming into the season there were some high hopes Chacin could turn in a Ubaldo Jimenez like breakout, instead he's turned in a Ubaldo Jimenez like disaster. Chacin entered the year having posted a 56% GB Rate last season and a 9+ K/9 the previous season. His command had always been spotty (4.15 BB/9), but if he could match the elite GB Rate with the strong K Rate, the shaky control could be overcome. Instead, nearly every indicator of Chacin's has gone in the wrong direction. His K% has dipped below 14% (sub-6.0 K/9) and his GB Rate has plummeted to just 38%. Add in some dips in velocity and continued struggles with command and you've got an abhorrent 5.19 FIP and 5.12 xFIP. Chacin has flashed the stuff in the past to be a worthwhile starter even in Coors Field, but the 2012 version of Chacin leaves little room for optimism. He'll head into 2013 off the fantasy radar for mixed leaguers.
Wily Peralta (SP - MIL): When the command is there, Peralta can be pretty special. On Thursday it was and he sure was. Peralta tossed 5 1/3 shutout innings against the Reds, striking out 6 and walking just 1. He allowed just 2 hits and a rather ridiculous 0% LD Rate, while also keeping the ball largely on the ground (60% GB Rate). Peralta's now made 5 starts at the big league level and in 3 of them he's walked 1 batter or less. In those 3 matchups he's allowed 1 ER in 19 1/3 IP while striking out 17 and allowing just 11 hits. In the other 2 starts he's allowed 6 ER's and 18 base-runners in just 8 2/3 IP. This isn't really a new concern for Peralta as he walked 4.79 BB/9 at AAA this year, but it highlights some of the immense upside he has with his stuff. With Zack Greinke gone and the Brewers holding an open audition for rotation spots next season, Peralta figures to get a long look in spring training. If he can show any strides in the command, he'll be one to watch.
Tommy Hanson (SP - ATL): It wasn't quite a quality start, but it was the best effort Tommy Hanson has turned in, in quite some time. Hanson limited a watered down Marlins offense to just 1 ER on 6 hits and 2 BB's over 5 1 /3 innings. It's been 7 starts since Hanson had a quality start and a big part of the problem is Hanson's inability to work deep into games. He's averaging just over 5 IP a start in his last 12 starts as he's had trouble working efficiently. Hanson's velocity drop this year has forced him to nibble a bit more which has led to an increased BB Rate and higher pitch counts. It's a poor combination and nearly a death sentence for a pitcher with heavy FB tendencies. Hanson previously relied on velocity to beat hitters and induce more infield fly-balls or lazy can of corn outfield flies. With the decreased velocity, Hanson has seen his infield fly ball rate decrease and his HR/FB Rate rise. His 4.38 ERA and 1.45 WHIP aren't fantasy worthy and I'm afraid Hanson won't be until he regains his velocity again. Sadly, I don't see that happening either. Hanson is just a reminder of how fickle pitchers can be and with his shoulder failing him, he'll be someone I'm avoiding in drafts again next year.
Jacob Turner (SP - MIA): Turner has gotten better at keeping the ball in the park and throwing strikes and the results have started to improve here in September. On Thursday night he tossed his 3rd quality start in the last 4 tries, allowing just 2 ER's on 6 hits and 3 BB's over 6 innings. Turner struck out 5, marking the first time he struck out more than 3 this month. I had kind of written Turner off as a prospect as his velocity hasn't been where it was in the minors in 2011 and his performance so far with the Marlins hasn't stood out much. Turner's striking out less than 6 batters per 9 innings, although his 9.9% swinging strike rate suggests there's room for growth there. His control has been strong (2.50 BB/9) but he's struggled with the long-ball (2 HR/9 innings) in part to an 18% HR/FB Rate. His 45% GB Rate is neutral, as is his 18% LD Rate allowed. A 63% LOB% has exaggerated some of Turner's struggles in the ERA category, but a .248 BABIP has also hidden some of the WHIP struggles. The entire profile reveals reasons for optimism and pessimism around Turner depending on your perspective. If you think Turner's 9.9% swinging strike rate is an indication he can improve the strikeout rate which will in-turn help the LOB% and the HR/FB Rate normalizes he could be a back-end rotation guy for fantasy owners. If the K Rate remains low and the command issues he had in the minors come back, it could get really ugly. I'm bearish, but I at least see the case in the indicators for taking a flier on Turner's former prospect pedigree next draft season.
Andrew McCutchen (OF - PIT): McCutchen left Thursday's game with a knee injury suffered on a diving catch. The extent of the injury is uncertain at this point, but with the Pirates out of contention it wouldn't be a surprise to see them be cautious with McCutchen's knee issue. Those in daily transaction formats will need to check lineups on Friday to make sure McCutchen is ok. McCutchen seemed somewhat optimistic after the game, noting he "hoped he'd be ready to play Friday", which is a good sign. McCutchen's season has certainly been MVP worthy and much of his growth with the bat can be attributed to an enormous growth in power (.228 ISO) brought on by a strong growth in his HR/FB Rate 19.9% along with some tremendous fortune on balls in play (.380 BABIP). A .200+ ISO out of the 25 year old isn't much of a surprise at all, but the magnitude in the growth of power and batting average is probably over-stated this season. He'll be a mid 1st rounder in fantasy drafts next year, but he'll probably be more appropriately valued as a late 1st/early 2nd rounder based on some regression in luck.
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