Mike Fiers (SP - MIL): Fiers really struggled on Thursday against an opponent that he had some previous success against this year (18:3 K:BB Ratio in 11 2/3 IP). Fiers allowed 3 ER's on 5 hits and a walk while needing 81 pitches to get through 3 innings. Fiers average fastball velocity was down 1 mph on Thursday and it really showed in a reduced swinging strike rate (6.2% vs. 8.2% this season). With Fiers now 35+ innings over his career high, it's natural to wonder if he's battling some fatigue. For the season Fiers has been one of the nicer surprises in the National League. He's held the great K Rate and BB Rate he posted in the minor leagues, overcoming some of the concerns that his stuff (88.5 mph avg FB) wouldn't be able to play at the big league level. A 5% HR/FB Rate and 27% LD Rate make me a bit nervous about Fiers heading into next season. While his performance suggests the scouts' questions over his stuff were answered, some of the indicators suggest good fortune may have played a role. With Fiers now turning into two below average starts in a row and the velocity down, I'd be uncomfortable relying on him next week @CIN where his FB tendencies (39%) could lead to trouble in a small park.
Justin Upton (OF - ARZ): It seems like it took all season to see this version of Justin Upton. Upton is finishing strong here in September as he entered Thursday with a .283/.323/.533 line and added to it with a 3-4 effort that was a HR short of the cycle. Upton extended his hitting streak to 7 games and picked up his 3rd multi-hit game in the DBacks last 4. Upton's long been treated as a "growth stock", a player that hasn't quite put together an elite 1st round season but because of his prospect pedigree, hitting environment, and age we're all caught waiting for the big step forward. This year it was a step back for Upton as what looked like growth in his K Rate last year was revealed as fraudulent. A look at Upton's swinging strike rate, which actually increased last year, hinted at this. In addition, a regression in Upton's ISO brought on by an increased GB Rate has only furthered the drop-off in production. Oddly, Upton has alternated good and bad power seasons as his development has shown no signs of being linear. His strong BB rate and above average base-running have held his SB and Run production pretty stable, but he'll likely finish with his 2nd season in the last 3 years with less than 20 HR's. Upton has all the tools to produce like an elite 1st rounder in fantasy, but the inconsistency around his performance makes it tough to value him as more than a 2nd rounder come draft time.
Todd Frazier (3B - CIN): We harped on the fact that this might be a possibility almost all August, but once Joey Votto and Scott Rolen have returned to the Reds lineup, veteran-lover Dusty Baker has made ROY candidate Todd Frazier a part-time player. Frazier got his first start of the series against the Cubs on Thursday and promptly went 0-5, dropping his September line to .209/.292/.256. Frazier certainly has struggled in September and Rolen has outproduced him this month, but it's bit "chicken or the egg" with whether Frazier is struggling because of the inconsistent playing time or his struggles have earned a demotion. Over the course of the season Frazier has steadily out-performed Rolen and should be playing over him now. Since he's not, fantasy owners can abort and look for additional CI help. The good news for those who own Frazier in keeper leagues is that Rolen is a FA at the end of the season, clearing the path for Frazier to be left alone. He'll likely enter next season as a Top 15 3B for mixed leaguers.
Ross Detwiler (SP - WAS): I wish the Nationals had more reasons to be patient with Detwiler early in the season when he went through a brief period of struggles in the rotation. I, along with many of our other analysts, was pretty high on the combination of ground balls and elite command Detwiler had shown and liked him as a back-end fantasy starter with mid-rotation upside. While he'll never blow fantasy owners away because of his low K potential (5.60 K/9), a lefty with a 52% GB Rate and good command (sub-7% BB%) doesn't come around too often. Detwiler's probably only a deep league play next year as his ERA is likely to regress into the high 3's and his WHIP will surge back into the 1.20's, but his performance is really no different than Wandy Rodriguez and his name will carry a lot less value. His final 2 starts of the season will come against PHI, who he threw 7 shutout innings against in his only start this year against them. Given Detwiler's holds opposing LHB's to a ridiculous .154/.241/.256 line it's not hard to see why Detwiler would make for a good spot start against a LH heavy Phillies offense (Utley, Howard, Dom Brown).
Jayson Werth (OF - WAS): Werth has done some exceptional work since returning from the DL as he entered play Thursday with a .309/.397/.441 line that has made him an ideal leadoff man for the Nationals. Werth continued to get on base on Thursday night as he picked up 2 singles and a walk in 4 PA's and even stole 2 bags. Werth's strong batting average has been spurred on by a drop in his K Rate, but it hasn't been met with any improvement in his chase rate or his swinging strike rate, which suggests (to me) that the drop in K's might be temporary. Werth does still have elite plate patience and the Nationals commitment to him at the top of the order should help his fantasy value, but I think a .270 batting average rather than the .300 or so is a good expectation heading into next year. For the stretch run though continue to ride the hot streak and treat Werth as a 15-15 power-speed threat with elite run scoring skills.
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