C. J. Wilson- LAA- Cold- Wilson experienced a lot of regression to the mean in August, when his 7.99 ERA was well above his 5.03 FIP. Even after getting knocked out early last night Wilson is still experiencing some good luck this month. His September ERA of 3.54 is quite lower than his 4.77 FIP. Last night may be the start of some season-ending regression and a continuation of a less than impressive trend of mediocre at best performances. He only has 3 quality starts in his last 10 outings.
Jake Odorizzi- Rookie- Top pitching prospect Jake Odorizzi will make his major league debut when he starts Sunday against the Indians. Cleveland is only hitting .259 against righthanded pitching so this is a favorable matchup in a first test at the major league level. Odorizzi had a 2.93 ERA after being promoted to AAA this year, but his FIP of 4.19 indicates that his drop in K rate and increase in BB rate after his promotion were offset by some good luck. Odorizzi is still a prime prospect but there may be some growing pains as he enters the majors the rest of this season and in 2013.
Brennan Boesch- DET- Stats- Boesch's decline this season appears to be partly bad luck (.288 BABIP down from .315) and partly trying to press to overcome that luck. While Boesch's Batting EYE didn't change much last year from 2010 even as his average rose, he has drawn fewer walks (5.2% BB% down from 7.4% last year) and his Batting EYE has dropped to .25. Boesch has been swinging at more pitches (52.8% up from 51.8%) and a greater percentage outside the zone (39.4% up from 37.9%). His contact rate on those outside pitches has dropped from 70.6% to 67.8%. Boesch's swinging strike % has gone up from 9.0% to 10.0%. Boesch's problems this year are correctable and maybe the offseason will help him get a fresh start next spring.
Ichiro Suzuki- NYA- Hot- Since joining the Yankees, Ichiro has had some positive regression to the mean. His .343 BABIP is helping his average as a Yankee of .317. Those are more familiar numbers than the .261 average and BABIP of .279 he had with Seattle this year. Ichiro has been hitting homers and stealing bases at a more prolific pace. In 95 games with the Mariners he hit 4 homers and stole 15 bases. In 53 games since the trade he has hit 3 homers and stole 10 bases. There seems to still be life left in him as we look towards 2013.
Jim Johnson- BAL- Hot- Johnson recorded his 45th save of the season, allowing 2 hits and a walk to the 4 batters he faced and benefiting from a double play and game ending caught stealing. Johnson's numbers (K/9, BB/9, HR/9, ERA, FIP, BABIP, LOB%) are all very close to what he posted in 2011. The big difference is in the team play of the Orioles, allowing him a lot of save opportunities in the closer role. His 5.31 K/9 isn't a typical closer production level and despite his 45 saves won't go into 2013 in the elite closer level.
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