Russell Martin (C-NYY)- Martin went 1-for-4 with a home run and three RBI to help the Yankees take an 8-5 win over the Orioles on Friday night. The home run was his 16th of the season, and he improved his slash line to .204/.306/.382 for the year. The veteran catcher has performed better of late hitting two home runs with a .300 average since the beginning of the month. Despite a batted ball profile almost identical to the one he produced in 2011 and for his career, Martin's overall numbers have been hurt by a .213 BABIP. He came into the game with a 17.9 percent, the highest of his career, and his .178 ISO also represents a career high. I don't know what to make of his three-year drop in BABIP, but I believe that rate has to improve next season and he should be able to hit 16-20 home runs once again spending half of his time in Yankee Stadium.
Felix Doubront (SP-BOS)- Doubront saw his record fall to 10-8 after allowing five runs in four innings against the Blue Jays on Friday night. He allowed six hits, two home runs and two walks and struck out four while his ERA increased to 5.21 for the year. This was his fifth straight start in which he has allowed four or more runs without working through more than five full innings. An xFIP of 3.95 suggests that he has pitched better than his ERA would indicate, as he has been subjected to an above average HR/FB ratio of 16.7 percent. While that ratio is more than likely to regress in 2012, I believe his DIPS are overstating his value as well. His .325 BABIP has been heavily influenced by an above average line drive rate (24 percent), and his strikeout rate is likely to decrease as his 9 percent swinging strike rate does not correlate with a strikeout rate greater than 9.00 K/9. His control is still considering below average (3.88 BB/9 in 2012), and I would only expect slightly improved numbers in 2013.
Lorenzo Cain (OF-KC)- Cain went 2-for-5 with two strikeouts, two home runs and three RBI in the Royals win over the White Sox last night. He increased his home run total to seven, while his slash line improved to .256/.306/.407 for the season in 217 plate appearances. I was expecting Cain to have an impact season this year, however a slow start and a torn hip flexor cost him most of the first half of this year. Since July, Cain has been somewhat inconsistent, but his HR/FB ratio is higher than I thought it would be this season and he looks like he should be a 20 plus stolen base player for next year. His strikeout rate of 22.8 percent needs to improve if he is going to hit .275 or higher, and his walk rate is below average (6.5 percent) However, he could be should be able to be a strong contributor to any owners team next season as he has the potential to be a 20-20 type of outfielder.
Chris Perez (RP-CLE)- Perez earned his 35th save of the season on Friday night against the Twins preserving a 7-6 win for the Indians. He allowed a run on one hit, but did record a strikeout without issuing a walk. A 3.62 ERA might lead some owners to believe that Perez has taken a step back; his 2.53 FIP and 3.17 xFIP (both career bests) indicate it has been a career year. In terms of peripherals, Perez could not have been any better so far. A strikeout rate of 10.33 K/9 is his best since 2009, and a walk rate of 1.99 BB/9 represents a career low. Furthermore, he has been recording more ground balls in 2012 (career high 39.7 percent) rate. A 65.4 percent strand rate is mostly responsible for his inflated ERA, but Perez has also allowed the highest BABIP of his career (.286). Perez probably will not be able to reproduce similar peripherals in 2013, but he is definitely considered a better bet heading into this offseason than he was last year.
Ervin Santana (SP-LAA)- Santana allowed just two runs on four hits, two home runs and one walk while striking out ten in 6.2 innings of work on Friday against the Tigers, but did not earn a decision. His record remains at 8-11, but he managed to lower his ERA to 5.21 for the season. 2012 has been a disaster for Santana owners who drafter him in mind with a sub 4.00 ERA and a 6.75-7.00 K/9 strikeout rate. His strikeout rate of 6.38 K/9 is his lowest since 2006, and his average fastball velocity has dropped a mph to 91.8 mph. An 18.8 percent HR/FB ratio is the main culprit in Santana's bloated ERA, but a 4.52 xFIP indicates that he would not have performed especially well even if his HR/FB ratio was closer to the league average considering he has benefited from a .244 BABIP this year.
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