Craig Kimbrel (RP-ATL)- Kimbrel recorded his 38th save of the season on Wednesday night against the Marlins. He threw a shutout inning while allowing just a hit and lowering his ERA to 1.10 for the year. The 24 year-old has put together the best season by a reliever that I can remember with an impeccable 16.48 K/9 and an improved walk rate (2.20). His FIP (0.90) and xFIP (0.96) are even more impressive than his ERA, and his 18.8 percent swinging strike rate ranks best among qualified relievers. Furthermore, Kimbrel has also improved his ground ball rate to a career best 50 percent rate. In my mind there is no doubt that Kimbrel heads into 2013 as the best reliever in baseball. His ability to record more than 100 strikeouts in a season allows one to be aggressive in March drafts, and I have been impressed that Freddi Gonzalez has not overused him during the year.
Starling Marte (LF-PIT)- Marte went hitless in four plate appearances with a strikeout in the Pirates 3-1 loss to the Brewers last night. He saw his slash line drop to .239/.278/.418, but he has produced four home runs and seven stolen bases in only 34 games (146 plate appearances). While his power numbers have impressive (.179 ISO and 15.7 percent HR/FB ratio), Marte has struggled in terms of plate discipline since being called up in August. His average has been hurt by a 26.3 strikeout rate, and his 3.4 percent walk rate is very weak. Marte will be continued to be plagued by strikeouts in 2013 if he cannot lower his 12.9 percent swinging strike rate, but I was surprised to see chase rate of 35.3 percent considering his abysmal walk rate. That is not an ideal rate, but I feel he could double his walk rate next year. His ground ball rate of 56.4 percent is somewhat of a concern, but he could post .340 type of BABIPs if he could start to hit a few more line drives next year considering his blazing speed.
Matt Harvey (SP-NYM)- Harvey impressed once again last night allowing one run on just one hit (a home run) and three walks in seven innings. The rookie struck out seven, and lowered his ERA to 2.73 for the year in 59.1 innings pitched. With an impressive 10.92 K/9 and a better than expected 3.94 BB.9, Harvey has shown that he is ready to become a full time major league starter in 2013. He has averaged 94.6 mph with his fastball through his first ten starts with a better than advertised change-up, strong slider and good curveball. His 12.1 percent swinging strike rate is strong, but I've been impressed with his ability to throw first pitch strikes (60.4 percent rate). His stock will jump next year, and he is worth retaining in keeper leagues no matter what the price. His fly ball tendencies are little disconcerting, but his 16.3 percent infield fly ball rate and home ballpark will alleviate those concerns heading into next year.
Yadier Molina (C-STL)- Molina went 2-for-3 with a walk and a home run to help lead the Cardinals to a 5-0 win over the Astros last night. The home runs was his 20th of the season, and he has 12 stolen bases and 68 RBI to go along with his .324/.382/.513 slash line this season. Molina made himself one of the better fantasy catchers last season with a career year at in the batter's box, but Molina has become an elite player at the position this season with career bests in home runs, stolen bases, ISO (.189) and wRC+ (147). Whether Molina can repeat this kind of success remains to be seen, but his career best 25.4 percent line drive rate indicates that he has earned his .334 BABIP. At 30 years old, Molina probably has one great season at the plate left, but I'm concerned whether catching 110 games over eight straight seasons will start to have an impact sooner.
Trevor Cahill (SP-ARI)- Cahill earned his 12th win of the season on Wednesday night against the Padres. He allowed two runs on five hits and four walks while striking out four in six innings of work. Cahill managed to lower his ERA to 3.89 for the season, and his 3.93 FIP and 3.83 xFIP are the best of his career. With a move to the National League, Cahill has produced the best strikeout rate of his career (6.86 K/9) along with his best swinging strike rate (9.1 percent). The switch in leagues can be largely attributed to this success, but he has also implemented a harder slider this year (85.3 mph) at a higher percentage (11 percent). In terms of linear weights, it has been his most successful pitch saving him a little more than four runs. In addition, Cahill has also been able to generate an even higher percentage of ground balls this year (61.6 percent). While it is unlikely we see a repeat of his 2010 season, owners should be able to expect another 2012 campaign next year.
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