Brett Anderson (SP-OAK)- Anderson was credited with his first loss of the season on Thursday afternoon against the Angels. He allowed five runs on nine hits, one home run and one walk while striking out five in five innings of work. His record fell to 4-1, and his ERA increased to 1.93. Despite the lackluster start on Thursday, Anderson has looked strong in his five starts coming back from Tommy John averaging 91.4 mph (90.9 mph in 2011) and recording the highest swinging strike rate of his career (9.2 percent). Command has not been a problem (1.10 BB/9), and he has been registering ground balls at a high level (60 percent). Anderson's strong performance has set the bar high for 2013, and I expect him to have a career year as he gains some velocity. I would not be surprised to see an ERA below 3.40 with a strikeout rate around 7.00 K/9 if he can remain healthy.
Adam Lind (1B/DH-TOR)- Lind went 2-for-4 with a double, a home run, a strikeout and two RBI in the Blue Jays 8-3 win over the Mariners. The home run was his tenth of the season, and he improved his slash line to .236/.296/.391. Despite getting off to a terrible tart start during the first half of the year, Lind has improved over the second half of the year producing a .286/.314/.398 line in 98 at-bats. However, his .155 ISO and 86 wRC+ are both career lows, and he has been hurt by his highest ground ball rate since 2008. A .267 BABIP has hurt, but his 17.9 percent line drive rate is the lowest of his career. Furthermore, Lind's 14.7 percent HR/FB ratio is line with his 15.3 percent career rate, but he has also been hurt by the worst infield fly ball rate of his career 11.8 percent. Considering he was demoted by the Blue Jays in the first half of the year and put on waivers, there are some real questions about whether the organization will move forward with him at the DH spot next season.
Phil Hughes (SP-NYY)- Hughes delivered one of his strongest starts of the season on Thursday night against the Red Sox. He delivered 7.1 shutout innings while allowing five hits and one walk with seven strikeouts. Hughes improved his record to 15-12, and he managed to lower his ERA to 3.96. We've discussed how Hughes has not been a reliable option this season because of his career worst HR/FB ratio of 12.5 percent and a career high fly ball rate of 48.5 percent, but he has been able to negate some of those negatives with a career best strikeout rate of 7.65 K/9 (as a starter) and a career best walk rate (2.06 BB/9). Hughes has started to work in a slider of late, which has given him another weapon against right-handed hitters. Hughes should see a regression in his HR/FB ratio next season, but he should be considered a known entity at this point if healthy. Expect another 3.90-4.05 ERA with similar peripherals in 2013.
Jason Kipnis (2B-CLE)- Kipnis went 1-for-5 with a strikeout and the game winning home run in the Indians win over Rangers last night. The home run was his fourteenth of the season, and he now has a .254/.327/.380 line to go along with his 27 stolen bases. I expected a bigger year from the 25 year-old second baseman, but his mix of power and speed has him ranked as the second best second baseman this season. His improved strikeout rate (16.6 percent) is a good sign, and I would expect a higher batting average next year as his 22.6 percent line drive rate would dictate a higher BABIP than .285. His production against left-handed pitching has been a real sticking point this year producing a .571 OPS against them this season, but that has also been a product of BABIP (.247). I would be surprised to see Kipnis reproduce these same stolen base numbers in 2013, which might have him overvalued heading into next year, but I would expect more of a .270/.340/.440 type of line.
Greg Holland (RP-KC)- Holland blew his first save (third of the year) since being named the Royals closer after the trade deadline after allowing a home run in 1.1 of work while striking out three opposing hitters. He has a 2.98 ERA for the year along with 13 saves in 60.1 innings pitched this season, and he his 2.28 FIP and 3.00 xFIP indicate he has pitched even better than his ERA would indicate. Holland's command has been somewhat of a problem (4.63 BB/9), but he has had to overcome a .359 BABIP this year despite having an average line drive rate (20.3 percent). His strikeout rate has improved to 12.53 K/9 despite a drop in his swinging strike rate, and his average velocity has jumped from 94.9 mph in 2011 to 96.1 mph this season. We do not know what the Royals plans are for Joakim Soria, who would probably come cheap as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, but I would consider Holland a top ten closer heading into 2013 considering his strikeout rate and ability to limit home runs (career 6.5 percent HR/FB ratio).
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