Jesus Montero (C/DH - SEA): It's been an up-and-down year for Jesus Montero, but it looks like he'll end up finishing right around the Top 10 at the catcher position. Early in the season Montero was disappointing with an impatient approach that was leading to a lot of weak contact, but as the year has worn on he's started to make some of the adjustments he was so well known for at the minor league level. Montero's 2nd half production (.295/.335/.452 with a .295-17-7-26 fantasy line) is a bit more like the production we expected from the young slugger and indicates a more likely base-line going forward. Montero has cut his K's dramatically in the 2nd half (22.9% to 11.7%) while also modestly increasing his walk rate from 4.7% in the 1st half to 5.6% in the 2nd half. He still has plenty of work to do with his plate discipline (38% chase rate, 10.5% swinging strike rate) and specifically against RHP (.229/.263/.352), but if Montero's developmental seasons end up being a .260-50-18-64 type fantasy season, we can live with it. Given the Mariners appear committed to letting Montero work enough behind the plate to hold eligibility, his stock as a fantasy keeper remains high. I think Montero shows some growth in the batting average and the HR's next season as he challenges a .295-60-20-80 type year.
Eric Hosmer (1B - KC): There have been a few fits and starts this year for Eric Hosmer, but he just hasn't been able to put together an extended streak that would give owners confidence that the turn-around was here. An exceptionally talented player who numerous scouts referred to as the best hitter in the Cactus League, Hosmer has been a major disappointment in 2012. His 54% GB Rate is limiting his power and while he's tightened up his strike zone, he still hasn't become comfortable in using the entire field. When he does use the whole field, his talent shines through (1.083 OPS to LF, .525 OPS to RF) and the production comes. Looking ahead to next year, Hosmer is a talent that I will continue to bet on. His 19.4% LD Rate reminds us that he doesn't have a hard time generating solid contact and his jump in his BB Rate this year (9.1% from 6%) is a sign that he's becoming better at honing in on the strike zone. In my opinion it suggests the stage is set for mechanical adjustments in his swing (some suggest his hands are too high) that can create lift and drive could unlock tons of value. Hopefully 2012 serves as a development year for Hosmer that only brings about a cheaper price in his draft day value.
Brett Lawrie (3B - TOR): Lawrie moved up his rehab to the high A affiliate in Lansing on Thursday night and responded by picking up his first hits of the rehab assignment. Lawrie led off the game with a single and later tripled in a run. With the minor league season winding down, Lawrie only has a few days left that his rehab can even continue. If things continue to progress he should be back in the majors by the beginning of next week. On the season Lawrie has been a disappointment for fantasy owners as the incredible power rates and plate discipline Lawrie showed in 170 PA's last year hasn't been maintained in his first full season. The weaker plate discipline has led to a drastic reduction in power and far fewer opportunities on base to swipe bags. At 22, it's hard to be super critical of Lawrie's development and we're reminded that young players don't always develop in a linear fashion. Looking ahead to next year Lawrie will still be in a tremendous lineup in a great hitters' park with strong bat skills. Any slight improvement in development and Lawrie has the chance to be a fantasy monster with legitimate 25-25 skills and a floor of production around .280-85-15-65-15. While the 2012 season was a disappointing one for fantasy owners, the hype machine on Lawrie was probably pushing him beyond our valuations anyway. His 2012 season serves as a nice reminder when comparing young players to established veterans who have had a down season (Lawrie was being drafted next to David Wright) that the veteran's track record deserves the benefit of the doubt in most cases. Next year will be Lawrie's turn for fantasy owners to pounce on the value brought by one disappointing season.
Mark Reynolds (3B - BAL): Back at the end of July I wrote a scathing blurb on Mark Reynolds season-long power outage and indicated I was finally abandoning the "Reynolds will get his HR" train. Almost immediately after writing the blurb, Reynolds started showing signs of commanding the zone better, which is typically a precursor to Reynolds hot streaks. Well since August 14th, the power floodgates have been opened. Reynolds hit 2 on the 14th, 3 more the rest of the month, and with 2 HR's on Thursday night has now 6 HR's through the first 6 games in September. Back on August 17th, I quickly retracted my stance on Reynolds noting the improved plate discipline was usually a good sign for Reynolds and that he was the type of "lightening in a bottle" owners should be trying to catch. He's certainly been that in the last few weeks as Reynolds HR/FB Rate has quickly corrected and his ISO is climbing back to career levels. All season long Reynolds indicators have been in fine shape, but balls just weren't leaving the yard. Now they are and he's carrying fantasy owners to the finish line. He should be owned in all formats during this immense power streak.
Nelson Cruz (OF - TEX): Cruz is going to finish with his most valuable fantasy season in the last 3 years and perhaps the most valuable fantasy season of his career, despite seeing a noticeable drop in his skills this year. Cruz's ISO has dipped from the .250-.270 range all the way down to .204 and his K Rate has risen back above 23% for the first time since breaking in a full-time role in 2007. So how is Cruz producing a better overall fantasy season? Quite simply, he's stayed healthy. Cruz has already appeared in 135 games, which constitutes a career high and as a result his counting totals have been able to build above his previous career highs in Runs and soon will pass his career high in RBI's as well. Looking ahead to Cruz's value in 2013, I think the drop in power is more likely to hold than the sudden rebound in health. Cruz will be playing in his age 33 season and has had a history of leg issues. While the power may bounce-back some (ISO perhaps back into the .220's), I don't expect him to repeat a 130+ game season (a first for him this season). Cruz has been a nice player who had more upside than downside in recent years because of his fantastic per game production, but with his skills in modest decline I think the risk:reward ratio has
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