Ivan Nova (SP - NYY): Nova was spectacular in his return from the DL on Saturday against the Rays. Nova allowed just 2 ER's on 4 hits and 2 BB's over 6 innings while striking out 8 and posting a solid 46.2% GB Rate. Nova did give up a HR in the win (his biggest weakness all season) but this time it was just a solo HR. Nova has outpitched his ERA all season long, showing great growth in his K Rate and his BB Rate, but a drop in his GB Rate has negatively impacted his production. With fewer GB's and an inflated HR/FB Rate (15.9%, career 11.9%), Nova's ERA has stayed in the high 4's all season long while his peripherals have suggested he's more of a low 4's ERA or even high 3's ERA pitcher with a more normalized HR/FB Rate. While it's easy to just write off the elevated HR/FB Rate, Nova's 22% LD Rate allowed suggests hard-hit balls are a consistent issue for the young RH. It will be interesting to see how Nova performs in 2013 as a few adjustments in one direction or the other could make all the difference. Nova's been able to raise his swinging strike rate this season, but it's been at the expense of GB's and thus more LD's and FB's. If Nova can somehow hold the swinging strike rate while getting his GB Rate back up, he can transition to a high-end #3 fantasy SP. However, if Nova's swinging strike rate drops and the GB's don't come back, he could fall off a cliff.
Lorenzo Cain (OF - KCC): Cain finished the injury riddled season with a .266/.316/.419 that led to a .266-27-7-31-10 rotisserie line in just 61 games. Projecting that production out over a more normalized 150 game season and Cain would have put together a .266-66-17-76-25 that offers average to above average 5-category production. Cain was able to put together this performance despite pretty underwhelming peripherals. His 32% chase rate is about league average but a 11% swinging strike rate is well below league average and is the reason for his 23% K Rate. Cain helped mitigate the effect of his high K Rate by posting an above average LD Rate (22%) that allowed him to post a strong .319 BABIP. The high LD Rate is consistent with Cain's prior performance at the big league level and gives some hope that he can maintain a respectable batting average to pair with the strong power-speed combo in spite of the contact issues. This is important because Cain's 18.5% K Rate at the minor league level suggests they're not going away. Looking ahead to next season, the key to Cain's fantasy value will be the ability to repeat his .153 ISO. If Cain can hold the ISO, he'll be able to post 15+ HR's along with the typical 20-25 SB seasons. While he'll never amount to an elite fantasy player because of the contact issues, Cain has a chance to be a Mike Cameron type; someone who can knock out 20-20 seasons with below average batting average performance.
Alex Avila (C - DET): Avila hasn't been able to replicate the incredible 2011 season from a production perspective, but his skills have been awfully close. Avila has actually improved his BB Rate (13.9% vs. 13.2%), while keeping his K Rate just about the same (24.1% vs. 23.8%) and building on his strong LD skills (21.7% last year, 24.4% this year). The difference in the performance has been 1) a big drop-off in Avila's ISO (.211 last year, .140 this year) and 2) vastly different luck on balls in play (.312 BABIP this yr, .366 last year). Avila posted a career .142 ISO in the minor leagues, which suggests this year's performance is much more likely to continue going forward. As a .242/.349/.382 type hitter, Avila is more of a back-end catching option than a front-line one.
Francisco Liriano (SP - CHW): There's only one thing Francisco Liriano has done consistently all year long: Kill the Twins. Liriano was on point on Saturday as he tossed 7 1-hit innings against his former team, allowing just 2 ER's and 2 BB's while striking out 9. The performance was good enough to earn Liriano his 6th win of the season, but also qualified as just his 1st quality start in his last 5 appearances. Liriano still has great stuff, as evidenced by a magnificent 13.4% swinging strike rate, but his inability to repeat his delivery and command the zone is too much to overcome. You simply can't walk over 5 batters per 9 innings and be an effective big league starter as you'll pitch in too many hitters' counts and big league hitters will make you pay. Liriano's 21.8% LD Rate and 1.09 HR/9 act as evidence of this fact. Looking ahead Liriano will continue to tantalize with his electric stuff but until he can get the BB Rate under control he'll be a non-factor in fantasy. He tricked me with a stellar spring training that included great command, which means I'll have a hard time investing in Liriano again next year (even with a stellar spring).
Carlos Villanueva (SP - TOR): I've always kind of liked Carlos Villanueva's arm, but I never thought it would be could enough to start in the AL East, let alone thrive. Villanueva tossed his 9th quality start in his last 13 outings with 7 strong innings against the Red Sox on Saturday. Villanueva posted his usual combination of adequate command (2 BB's) and strong K Rate (6 K's), while limiting the Red Sox to 2 ER's on 4 hits. Villanueva's posted a strong 9.9% swinging strike rate in the American League this year, but I'm not sure how it equates to his current 23.9% K%. Even when Villanueva was posting strong 10% swinging strike rates out of the bullpen in Milwaukee his K% was right around 20%. In addition to the above average K Rate it appears Villanueva has experienced plenty of good fortune this season. His .272 BABIP is about 20 points below league average and his 81.3% LOB% suggests Villanueva's ERA should be trending closer to 4. Villanueva has still done enough to show he's a capable starter in the AL East, but I'm not sure he'll be fantasy worthy next year in mixed leagues. Villanueva's current skill set, which some seems exaggerated to me, is probably that of a 4.00 ERA, 1.30 WHIP with a high 7's K/9. It's good enough to hold some spot start value, but probably not draft-worthy. Villanueva gets @TB in his next start, which should be a favorable environment for his FB propensity. I'd be comfortable deploying Villanueva next week as a stream option.
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