Edwin Encarnacion DH (TOR) - Looking over leaders in certain categories in order to get a head start on who may be over or under valued heading into 2013, I was taken aback when I saw that Encarnacion leads the entire Major Leagues with an infield hit percentage of 13.4%. It's no secret I am a big fan of Encarnacion, but this is something that must be taken into account when deriving his 2013 value as his average will likely take a hit. While Encarnacion moves well for his size, there is no reason he should be the leader in infield hit percentage. For comparisons sake, Mike Trout who has one of the fastest home to first times ever has an IFH% of 11.4%. Sure enough, Encarnacion's current IFH% of 13.4% is an outlier when looking at his career mark (7.4%) and previous 6 seasons: 5.1/6.3/8.5/3.6/5.7/6.1. It's safe to assume that Encarnacion's infield hit total of 19 will likely be cut in half next year. Had Encarnacion had a normal (for him) IFH%, he likely would have collected 10 infield hits, giving him a .263 BA rather than a .281 BA. So, when projecting him for next year it is much more reasonable to start with a BA in the .260's rather than at .280.
Denard Span OF (MIN) - I've long been a Span supporter in deeper leagues as his BABIP in 2010 and 2011 masked a really solid leadoff hitter. This year Span's BABIP of .323 is in line with his career mark (.321) and the results are a solid BA/OBP combination of .287/.346. Span should hold this average next year thanks to a consistently high contact rate (career mark of 87.9%), which this year is supported by the lowest swinging strike rate (2.7%) in the American League. Another reason Span should hold his average is he makes solid contact (21.4% LD rate this year) and keeps the ball on the ground (54.5 GB%) which allows him to use his speed to collect infield hits (17 this season). Span isn't a complete singles hitter as his career ISO is at least in the triple digits (.104). Span isn't a complete burner on the base paths, but an 81% success rate over the past 3 seasons should keep him running.
Josh Hamilton OF (TEX) - While Hamilton's current injury issues, not his performance, are frustrating owners this year, I worry it might be his health and performance that frustrates 2013 owners that use a first round or early second round pick on Hamilton. For starters, the health isn't going to get better as Hamilton (31) gets older. He has averaged 120 games played per year the last 4 years, which accounts for about 75% of the season. Despite Hamilton's awesome .287/.358/.588 line, there are reasons to expect a decline in his play in the coming years. His current K% of 24.3% is a career high. It's not surprising given an absurdly high 45.4% chase rate and a major league leading swinging strike rate of 19.3%. This lack of plate discipline has led to career lows in GB% and LD% for Hamilton, which is good for his power but not his average. Next year, the K problem could get worse given this makeup, and he likely will be unable to repeat a 26.3 HR/FB% that is nearly 7 points higher than his career mark. Given Hamilton's health risk and deteriorating plate discipline, he's not someone I'm comfortable using a very early pick on or spending a lot of money on in 2013 drafts.
Robinson Cano 2B (NYY) - I was surprised to see that Cano is going to fall short of 100 RBI's. Looking into this I noticed that Cano, who is hitting .295/.365/.522 this year, is hitting just .241/.376/.376 with runners in scoring position. It has been shown that hitting with RISP really isn't a skill, so this is likely just the result of random variation and bad luck for Cano. At the age of 29 Cano's power just keeps getting better, so a strong bounce back in the RBI category is expected next year. Cano has seen his HR/FB% rise each of the past 4 seasons: 7.9/13/14.7/17/23.3. Part of that is Cano's development as he has really squared up on the ball each of the past two years as evidenced by career best LD rates of 22.3% and 24.6%. Part of this also has to do with new Yankee Stadium being very favorable for left handed power. In fact, according to Fangraphs, Yankee Stadium was the most favorable place for left handed homers. Look for Cano to be back around 30 homers again next season and to have a 20 or so bump in RBI's.
Wei -Yin Chen SP (BAL) - Chen struggled last night against the Jays, giving up 5 ER in 5 IP with a WHIP of 2. Chen served up 2 homers, and that's going to be a problem for Chen next season too. Chen entered the game with a low GB rate of 37.7% and an elevated HR/FB rate of 11.4%. The elevated HR/FB% is not a surprise as Chen faces some solid offenses in the AL East. Perhaps more impactful though are the AL East ballparks. In 2011 Camden Yards ranked as the 5th easiest ballpark to hit a HR while Yankee Stadium (3rd) and Rogers Centre (7th) were also in the top 10, and Fenway Park is known as a hitter's park. Despite solid K and BB rates, Chen will have a tough time maintaining an ERA under 4 due to his FB riskiness and environment.
