Daniel Murphy (2B/1B-NYM)- Murphy went 1-for-4 with a strikeout in the Mets loss to the Phillies on yesterday. He has not recorded an extra base hit in 19 straight games, as he has seen his slash line drop to .285/.327/.395 to go along with his four home runs and seven stolen bases. I thought at the beginning of the season Murphy could provide the same value as Neil Walker would, but a drop in his fly ball rate to a career low 25.4 percent has led to the drop in his power in addition to a career worst HR/FB ratio. Murphy is ranked fourteenth among qualified second basemen in terms of wOBA (.313), but he might be able to get his average back to the .295 range considering his 24.4 percent line drive rate (career high). In terms of home runs, it's looking as if Murphy's 2010 season of a 41 percent fly ball rate was the exception.
Brooks Raley (SP-CHC)- Raley was knocked around by the Brewers on Thursday, but did not earn a decision in the Cubs 11-9 win. He allowed seven runs on ten hits, two home runs and two walks while striking out two in four innings of work. The Cubs announced that this appearance was Raley's last start of the year because of an innings cap, but if his five major league starts are any indication, Raley will not provide any value in 2013. He compiled an 8.14 ERA in 24.1 innings pitched with poor peripherals (5.92 K/9 and 4.07 BB/9), and was not able generate an average amount of ground balls (37.9 percent). Raley's stuff might be considered below average with an average fastball of 88.2 mph, but he did have a 10.2 percent swinging strike rate entering yesterday's start. It looks as if Raley could use some time in Triple-A next season to possibly improve his control, and does not look like a realistic option for the rotation in 2013.
Carlos Beltran (OF-STL)- Beltran went 1-for-4 with two strikeouts in the Cardinals loss to the Nationals last night. He has 28 home runs, 85 RBI and 13 stolen bases, but his second subpar month in a row has lead to his slash line dropping to .268/.340/.504. Beltran has reproduced a similar batted ball profile, with the exception of an increased HR/FB ratio, to last season. However, he has seen a 37 point drop in his BABIP from .324 to .287 this season. Coupled with a 5 point increase in his strikeout rate has resulted in a drop in his overall batting average. Even with the drop in his overall line from last season, it has been a productive season for Beltran owners because of his likely 30 home run season and increased stolen base numbers. I would expect a stronger finish to the season as his BABIP is likely to improve, but a strikeout rate above 20 percent over the last two months indicate he should finish the year with a .275/.350/.505 type of line.
Matt Dominguez (3B-HOU)- Dominguez, who was acquired by the Astros in the Carlos Lee deal, was called up by the Astros on Thursday because of the organization's desire to get another right-handed bat on the 25-man roster. He went 3-for-4 with a double, a triple and a run scored in the Astros 8-4 loss to the Giants on Thursday night and is now 5-for-12 in 12 plate appearances this season. Considered a top-10 prospect by Baseball America in both the Marlins and Astros organizations, Dominguez has a sterling reputation as a defender but questions remain about his overall offensive production. He had a .258/.312/.431 line with 12 home runs in triple-A last season, but has not improve in 2012 as his .257/.311/.371 line (nine home runs) indicate. Dominguez looks as if he will get a legitimate shot at the position over the next month or so with an eye towards 2013, but I don't think his numbers are going to hold up a corner position.
Ian Kennedy (SP-ARI)- Kennedy improved his record to 12-11 on Thursday night after holding the Dodgers scoreless for 6.1 innings while allowing just two hits and two walks. He struck out seven and lowered his ERA to 4.27 for the year. Kennedy's peripherals (8.03 K/9 and 2.35 BB/9) are almost identical to last season (8.02 K/9 and 2.23 BB/9), but the right-hander has been hurt by an increased HR/FB ratio (12.1 percent), a higher BABIP (.306) and lower strand rate (75 percent) in 2012. However, his FIP (4.32) and xFIP (4.17) indicate that he has pitched about as well as his ERA would suggest, and that there is no much of a difference between his underlying performance over the last three seasons. The only difference has been in terms of his HR/FB ratio, and I expect that to continue to regress over the next month closer to his 9.7 percent rate to give him an ERA somewhere between 4.10-4.20.
These are only a few of the players we are covering today. We profile over 100 players everyday in our premium section, become a member today.
