Wade Miley (SP - ARZ): Hopefully you took my advice earlier in the week when I touched on Wade Miley's recent hot streak. I noted Miley's skills have been great, but a favorable schedule may be inflating some of those skills and he was due for some eventual regression. Against a Nats offense that has gotten pretty darn good against LHP, I noted in the blurb I'd have Miley on my bench for this one. Thankfully I did. Miley allowed 6 runs (4 ER) on 9 hits, 1 BB, and 2 K's while lasting just 4 1/3 innings on Saturday night against the Diamondbacks. Miley was hit hard during the outing, allowing a 55.6% LD Rate and only generating an 8.7% K%. Miley's been giving up LD's at an ~20% clip through most of the season and was due for a bit of BABIP regression as he entered play with a .271 BABIP allowed. Miley's still a fine matchups play (as I mentioned earlier in the week), owners just need to pick their spots carefully and try to exploit Miley when he's on the road against weaker offenses. With an @HOU matchup on-deck, I'll likely have Miley right back in my lineup next week.
Stephen Drew (SS - ARZ): The performance hasn't been particularly impressive (.211/.305/.333), but the skills Drew has posted in his first 131 PA's have been truly exceptional. Drew has posted a career best 12% BB Rate and 32% LD Rate while showing tremendous plate discipline (18% chase rate) and great contact rates (86.6%). Though Drew's 19% K Rate is a bit elevated, it isn't the result of poor zone command or swinging through pitches; he's simply working counts deeper than before (career low 35.6% swing %). With an expected BABIP around .400 thanks to the great LD Rate and an actual BABIP of .250, Drew has plenty of room for upward regression. The only weakness in Drew's peripherals, relative to his career rates, is a slightly reduced ISO (.123, career .171) that is consistent with declines Drew has experienced in his power rates in recent years. While Drew might not be a high-end power hitting SS, his skills suggest he deserves to be a Top 10 SS and potential Top 5 SS the rest of the way. His current skills suggest a performance more akin to a .310/.405/.440 line than the current .211/.305/.333. If you own Drew continue to show patience. As long as the skills continue to be elite, I'm willing to bet the performance eventually comes around.
Anthony Rizzo (1B - CHC): Back at the end of July I wrote an extensive blurb on Rizzo detailing some of my concerns about his shaky plate discipline and it how it translated to his extreme power production early on. Since the July 27th blurb Rizzo's production has slowed (.259/.328/.500). Rizzo's K Rate has exploded early on in August (20%, season-long 13%) and his ISO has collapsed to .114. The HR/FB Rate in August (11.1%) has been a bit more normalized as has Rizzo's LD Rate (18%). Rizzo's still a valuable fantasy asset, hitting in the middle of the Cubs order in a favorable home environment, but as I alluded to in the July 27th blurb his performance is much more likely to be Top 15 at the 1B position the rest of the way than Top 10. It's just very difficult to be an elite player with a 40+% chase rate. Over time he'll need to improve the plate discipline if he wants to unlock all of his raw power potential, otherwise he'll likely remain a very good, but not great fantasy asset at 1B. I think a .260-20-8-25 line the rest of the way is a reasonable expectation for Rizzo.
Drew Stubbs (OF - CIN): Stubbs has been on a tear since July 23rd hitting .290/.359/.536 while scoring 21 runs, swatting 5 home runs, and swiping 9 stolen bases in those 17 games. Even during the span Stubbs has continued to have his usual contact issues, striking out 21 times in 78 PA's (26.9% K Rate). On the season Stubbs hasn't made much of an improvement in his game. He continues to walk at a 9% clip while striking out around a 27-28% clip and maintaining an ISO around .160. The combination makes him a slightly below league average offensive player, but his fantasy contributions (thanks to great park and his SB rate) leave him ranked as a Top 25 OF. Stubbs has had some favorable luck on his HR/FB Rate (18% this yr, career 15%) that is allowing his distribution of XBH's to be more heavily weighted to HR's than we'd typically expect and as a result he's on pace for a near 20-40 (HR-SB) season. Over the course of the season I'd expect the HR Rate to slow a bit as some of those HR's turn into 2B's and 3B's, but the rest of his production (R-RBI-SB-AVG) should probably remain steady. Stubbs' skills are that of a below average offensive player, but his environment and situation (good home park, top of a good lineup) makes Stubbs a Top 35 OF. It's important to remember when evaluating Stubbs long-term as his ability to maintain this level of performance is very dependent on the Reds continuing to prop him up at the top of their lineup.
Matt Harvey (SP - NYM): The command issues that I predicted would be an issue for Harvey didn't rear their ugly heads in his first three starts but they became a problem on Friday night against the Braves. Harvey left the start relatively unscathed, allowing just 2 ER's on 2 hits over 6 innings, but he walked 5 and now has a 4.84 BB/9 and has walked 12.5% of batters he's faced. To this point it hasn't flowed through to his WHIP (1.30), but that's largely thanks to a favorable .255 BABIP despite allowing a 24% LD Rate. Once the BABIP regresses, Harvey will be looking at a WHIP approaching 1.40. The K Rate remains fantastic (27% K%) as Harvey continues to generate tons of swinging strikes (13.7%). Because of the elite K Rate, Harvey deserves consideration in all formats, but owners trying to protect WHIP need to be careful. Harvey's 4.11 FIP is representative of what I'd expect his ERA to hover around the rest of the way. His high K Rate will help limit some of the damage of the high WHIP and keep the ERA respectable, but Harvey's a bit of an Edinson Volquez type until he improves the command.
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