Jeremy Hellickson (SP-TB)- Hellickson earned his ninth loss of the season on Saturday afternoon after allowing four runs on six hits (two home runs) while striking out five without issuing a walk. His ERA increased to 3.42, but he continues to outperform his DIPS (4.87 FIP and 4.64 xFIP). This is the second straight season in which he has been able to strand runners at a rate above 80 percent with a BABIP below .260. While it is entirely possible that maintaining a BABIP can be an acquired skill, there is still not a enough data to suggest this is one of his innate skills. Furthermore, his strand rate success in entirely luck related and he will eventually run into some regression even whether it be during this or next season. While his peripherals could see some improvement considering the underlying plate discipline numbers, but I would continue to be hesitant in my use of him down the stretch in daily leagues.
JJ Hardy (SS-BAL)- Hardy went 3-for5 with a strikeout, a home run, three runs scored and two RBI to help lead the Orioles to an 8-2 win over the Blue Jays. The home run was his 17th of the season, and he was able to improve his slash line to .232/.278/.385. Hardy has produced his second best month of the year in August, but his numbers are still nowhere close to the ones he produced with the Orioles last season. This is mostly in due part to a below average BABIP of .246 despite producing almost an identical batted ball profile to last year except for a drop in his HR/FB ratio from 15.7 to 9.7 percent. The drop in his HR/FB still does not explain the lower BABIP, and I'm attributing this more to luck than anything else. His career rate of .275 is below average, but he is still 29 points below that mark. His 15.1 percent strikeout rate is an improvement from last season, and his 4.8 percent swinging strike is the second lowest of his career. I would bet that he has nice a finish to the year.
Brandon Morrow (SP-TOR)- Morrow made his first start on Saturday night since injuring his oblique on June 11th against the Washington Nationals. He took the loss last night after allowing four runs (two earned) on six hits and one walk while striking out seven in 4.2 innings pitched. His record fell to 7-5 for the year while his ERA increased to 3.06. The results might not have been there entirely, but this performance should be considered good news for owners who have stashed Morrow in a DL spot. He averaged 94.4 mph with his fastball last night (92.9 mph for the season), and he recorded a 12.5 percent swinging strike rate. Owners should not hesitate putting Morrow back into the starting lineup considering his strikeout ability (8.09 K/9). With improved control (career best 2.73 BB/9) and career best ground ball rate (40.2 percent), getting Morrow back is better than any waiver wire pickup.
Raul Ibanez (DH/OF-NYY)- Ibanez went hitless with two strikeouts in the Yankees 3-1 loss to the Indians last night. He has 15 home runs, 51 RBI and three stolen bases with a .240/.306/.444 line in 102 games and 346 plate appearances this season. These type of numbers are what we expected for Ibanez this season, but he has struggled of late hitting .238/.347/.381 in August (entering last night's game). He has provided solid power numbers along with a HR/FB ratio of 15.2 percent entering last night's game; his highest since 2009. Ibanez has certainly been unlucky this season producing a BABIP of .244 (his worst as a regular player) considering his 19 percent line drive rate is just about average and his ground ball rate of 41.7 percent is his lowest since 2008. Even with his recent struggles Ibanez remains a solid play against right-handed pitching, and he should finish the season with 19 or 20 home runs.
Jose Valverde (RP-DET)- Valverde recorded his 26th save of the season last night against the Angels after recording a 1-2-3 inning. He did not strikeout a batter, but Valverde lowered his ERA to 3.42 for the year. 2012 continues to be Valverde's worst season to date because of a steep decline in his strikeout rate, which has gone from 8.59 K/9 last season to 6.49 K/9 in 2012. His average fastball velocity of 93.4 mph is his lowest since 2007, but his swinging strike rate has dropped to a career worst 8 percent (13.1 percent for career). Furthermore, Valverde's DIPS (3.76 FIP and 4.89 xFIP) suggest he is due to regress over the next month and into next season. His 4.5 percent HR/FB ratio is at a career low, and below his career rate of 4.5 percent. Wherever the veteran lands next season, he would be a closer I would try to avoid heading into fantasy drafts for 2013.
Follow us on Twitter all year: @Fantistics and @enehsy
These are only a few of the players we are covering today. We profile over 100 players everyday in our premium section, become a member today.
