Adam Jones (BAL - OF): Alright I admit it. Now that Adam Jones has hit his 25th HR, I feel a little bit better about winning my "WhoYaGot" bet with Mike Leone about Jones eclipsing the 23.5 HR line we set at the beginning of the season. Jones ended a long homer-less draught (last HR on July 27th) on Tuesday night with a deep opposite field blast. Jones power numbers have been in decline since the opening two months of the season and the question when assessing Jones is whether the power decline is a result of normalization and regression in his pace or latent issues with the wrist injury he first suffered at the end of May. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle of Jones' stellar start (.314/.365/.618) and the underwhelming line since (.270/.313/.423), but the uncertainty around the impacts of the wrist makes him a tough player to project going forward. For this season, its clear Jones owners shouldn't expect the stellar early-season production as he's become a watered down version of his pre-2012 self. Jones continues to square balls up well (as evidenced by 20+% LD Rates last two months), but the lack of power is undermining his fantasy value. For keeper leagues I still think as Jones body matures he'll make consistent runs at 30 HR's, but the raw totals this year (which were a bit inflated early in the season) are probably going to finish about where I'd expect him to produce next season.
Alex Gordon (OF - KC): Gordon got off to such a bad start this year hitting .237/.330/.366 through the first two months of the season that it's hard to appreciate just how good he's been since (.331/.391/.489). When looking back at what "changed" in Gordon's performance from the first two months to the last three, it's hard not to be excited about his performance. Gordon's batted ball data is almost identical as he's posted LD Rates of 24.2%, 22.1%, 25.8%, 31.1%, and 23.1% by month with corresponding BABIPs of .259, .314, .404, .422, and .361. Now given Gordon's extraordinary LD Rates a normalized BABIP for him should settle in around .370, suggesting the recent surge is a bit closer to the deserved level of production than Gordon's early season struggles. While the results .295-73-9-57-8 certainly leave much to be desired from Gordon this year, I actually think 2012 is confirmation that 2011 wasn't a fluke. Gordon's numbers are down this year because of an unusual distribution in his doubles rate (79% of his XBH's are 2B's, career - 66%, last year - 63%) and an unusual number of PA's in the leadoff spot where Gordon's RBI opportunities have been limited. Although it is a small sample in 14 games as the #3 hitter Gordon has produced 8 Runs and 11 RBI's which if we extrapolated over just a 140 game sample would be 80 Runs and 110 RBI's. The counting totals will improve as the Royals commit to Gordon as their #3 hitter and the power rates will improve as some of those 2B's turn into HR's. He'll be a nicely undervalued OF option heading into drafts next year.
Hisashi Iwakuma (SP - SEA): Make it 8 straight starts in which Iwakuma has allowed 3 ER's or less. Iwakuma limited the Twins to just 1 unearned run over 6 innings of work en route to his 5th win of the season. He walked 4 but yielded just 1 hit as a rather obscene amount of luck appeared to be on his side on Tuesday night. Iwakuma allowed a 30.8% LD Rate which when paired with walking 18% of the batters faced typically results in pretty disastrous results, but on Tuesday night it yielded a tidy 0.00 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. For the season Iwakuma has benefited from a low .269 BABIP and high 81.5% LOB% that are the main drivers behind an ERA (3.40) that is 60 pts ahead of his xFIP (4.00) and over a full run lower than his FIP (4.75). Iwakuma has improved his swinging strike rate (9.8%) to above league average since I first checked in on him, which explains the improving K Rate here in August (6.93 K/9), but the total package still doesn't add up. It's not as if the league is having a hard time seeing or adjusting to a player they haven't faced as Iwakuma's batted ball data (20+% LD Rate, 18.6% HR/FB Rate) and his BB Rate (3.90 BB/9) suggest opposing batters are seeing him just fine. He's simply having a ton of good fortune. With his next two starts in favorable environments at home (LAA, OAK) owners can continue to ride the hot streak, but I get particularly concerned relying on a pitcher whose peripherals suggest he's about to break.
Chris Carter (1B - OAK): In order to prevent the Chris Vernon Carter player page on Fantistics to look like something other than Schuyler Dombroske yelling in the woods, I've decided to write a blurb on the young A's 1B. Carter homered for the 12th time this season, raising his line to .270/.378/.572 in 180 PA's this year. I've never been a particularly big fan of Carter (saw a lot of whole in his swing and long-term contact issues), but he's really transformed himself this year. Carter's chasing just 19% of pitches outside the strike zone and has brought his swinging strike rate down to a more reasonable 12% (career 14.4%), while consistently punishing pitches he does make contact on (24% LD Rate, 25% HR/FB Rate). Carter's always been able to hit minor league pitching (career .283/.378/.535), but he's finally found a way to translate it to the big leagues this year. His pace has slowed a bit in August, with the K Rate rising above 30% and the ISO dipping below .200, suggesting his current 30 HR pace may be exaggerated, but a .250-75-25-75 pace over the remainder of the season seems reasonable. In deep leagues he should already be snagged, but the power will play in all formats and especially for those who can spot Carter on the road (1.021 OPS away from the Coliseum). Credit my man Schuyler Dombroske for seeing something I didn't in Carter and for driving a one-man bandwagon since the beginning of July.
Doug Fister (SP - DET): Fister was able to get through a bullpen session on Tuesday without any setbacks and is now expected to return to the rotation on Friday against the White Sox. Fister was forced to skip a start after a groin issue popped up in his last outing. I touched on Fister back at the end of July, noting his peripherals placed him in an unusually elite category given his combination of GB's (over 50%), control (BB's under 2.0 BB/9) and K's (7.75 K/9 or higher) that made him the only pitcher in baseball to have all three. Fister was in the midst of a 7-start quality start streak before it came to an end last time out against the Orioles. With an FIP and xFIP in the 3.20's and an ERA of 3.67, Fister looks like a prime candidate to improve his level of performance in the final month of the season. I targeted Fister in the SiriusXM Hosts League via trade in July and he's one of the horses I intend to ride confidently towards the finish line. A fantasy starter who is perceived as a #4, but actually has the skills of a #2, Fister remains significantly undervalued.
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