AJ Pierzynski (C - CHA): Back in April I wrote an extensive blurb about how AJ Pierzynski's hot-start simply could not be sustained. I recommended not only selling high if you owned Pierzynski but passing on him outright in 1-catcher leagues. Needless to say, this has not been a particularly good call. Pierzynski swatted his 23rd HR of the season on Sunday in a 2-4 effort that also included his 66th and 67th RBI's. Pierzynski now leads all Catchers in HR's and ranks 2nd in RBI's (as of this writing tied with Miguel Montero). This all from a player who had never topped 18 HR's in a season and hadn't eclipsed the 60 RBI mark since 2008. At 35 years old, Pierzynski is having a career season; and I still have no idea how it's happening. Digging in on Pierzynski's peripherals not much has changed. His FB Rate this year is about 35-36%, which is consistent with a career rate of 33.3% and his LD Rate is replicating his career rate (20.6%). He's shown zero improvement in approach. He's still swinging at 42% of pitches outside the strike zone and his swinging strike rate has actually increased to 7.8% (consistent with earlier in his career). Perhaps he's swinging through more pitches because he's swinging harder than in years past, but even in his peak years his HR/FB Rates topped out at 11-14%. This year it's over 21%. He's had 5 "just enough" HR's which suggests a small amount of good fortune as does the average HR distance of 390 feet, which is about even with the league average of 389 feet. While those numbers suggest some small level of good fortune being involved, it doesn't equate with Pierzynski hitting 4 more HR's than he ever has in a full season and it being mid-August. I simply can't explain it and to be honest every time Pierzynski hits another bomb, it drives me nuts. To those who took my advice on Pierzysnki early in the season, I apologize. The performance is maddening and has absolutely no track record to stand on. These types of anomalies drive us mad.
Jason Vargas (SP - SEA): Vargas continues to defy sabermetric analysis. Vargas allowed just 1 ER on 7 hits and a walk over 8 1/3 strong innings against the Angels on Sunday afternoon. He struck out 5 and improved his record to 13-8 on the season, while lowering his ERA to 3.56. If you compare Vargas' 2011 season to his 2012 season, it's pretty hard to understand where all the success is coming from. Vargas has struck out slightly fewer batters per nine (slightly more per batter, 15.9% to 15.3%) and walked practically the same number of batters (6.5% this year to 6.9% last year), while giving up FAR more HR's (1.38 HR/9 vs. 0.99 HR/9). So why on earth did Vargas post a 4.25 ERA last year when his current ERA sits at 3.56? The simple answer is good fortune. Vargas' BABIP allowed is just .245 (career .275) and it's come at a low rate despite Vargas actually allowing MORE line drives and fewer infield-fly-balls. Once again something that would seem unlikely to correspond with a lower BABIP. In addition Vargas' LOB% has been a career best 80% (career average of 70%). So while Vargas was mildly unlucky last year (68% LOB%, .285 BABIP) as his 4.25 ERA was a bit higher than his 4.09 FIP, he's been absurdly lucky this year to outpace his 4.72 FIP. You'd think a tough matchup with the Angels might be one in which Vargas felt some of the inevitable regression, but he was once again very good on Sunday. Going forward, I'd be very careful to expect much more than a 4.00 ERA and 1.25 WHIP out of Vargas.
Jesus Montero (C/DH - SEA): THIS is a little more like it. We were pretty aggressive on our expectations for Jesus Montero this season and while his performance has been enough to hover around a back-end #1 catcher, it hasn't been the top 10 potential we saw in him at the beginning of the season. Montero's struggled with spacious SAFECO and has had particular issues against RHP, but his performance has REALLY picked up since the end of June. Montero's been far more selective at the plate, walking 9 times in the last 27 games after walking just 14 times in the first 70. With the improved plate patience, Montero has also cut down significantly on the K's (14 K's in last 102 AB's, 75 in first 265 AB's). As a result the batting average (.348) since the end of June and the power have rebounded. Making adjustments was considered one of Montero's strengths at the minor league level, but it's taken him a long time to make them at the big league level. I think he'll finish extremely strong and ultimately earn his draft day value now that he's tightened up the strike zone. On Sunday he took Jered Weaver deep twice and has now picked up multi-hit games in 4 straight and 6 of 7. Look for a big finish to the season as Montero starts driving his average towards .280 and his HR total into the high teens. I think he's a borderline Top 7 catcher the rest of the way.
Bartolo Colon (SP - OAK): For the first time in 4 starts Bartolo Colon allowed an earned run and then another... and another... and another... and a few more after that. Colon ended up allowing 6 runs (5 earned) on 9 hits and 2 BB's over 5 2/3 innings. As is typically the case with Bartolo, he only struck out two and relied heavily on batted balls in play. The formula had worked pretty well during Colon's recent stretch when he had a .261 BABIP, but didn't work so well on Sunday when the BABIP reversed closer to league average (.333). For the season Colon's 3.55 ERA is a bit lower than his FIP (3.81) and xFIP (4.16). Some of that is the home park deflating Colon's HR/FB Rate, but a decent portion of it is simply good fortune. Colon's going to provide league average WHIP thanks to his good control and league average ERA thanks to his home park and good defense behind him, but the low K Rate makes him a volatile option who owners should be careful where deploying. I've spot-started Colon a few times this year, but have done it when he's at home against lesser offenses. On the road in a favorable hitters environment like the Cell, Colon should've been squarely on your bench (even with the incredible hot streak).
Adrian Gonzalez (1B - BOS): Remember the wide-spread panic we had surrounding Adrian Gonzalez at the end of June when he was hitting .274/.324/.410 with just 6 HR's and 43 RBI's? Since then Gonzalez has hit .340/.374/.510 (before yesterday's game) while more than doubling his HR total and almost doubling his RBI total. Gonzalez now sits at .309/.354/.478 and remains on pace for another .300+ season with 20+ HR's and 100+ RBI's. Certainly it won't be anything close to the eye-popping numbers many projected from Gonzalez when he moved to Boston, heck it won't even be close to some of the big numbers he posted in San Diego, BUT Gonzalez has been a Top 10 player over the last 30 days. So what has changed between the beginning of the year and now? Well the first thing I see when looking at Gonzalez's monthly splits is a dramatic change in his GB Rate. Gonzalez was really struggling elevating the ball early in the year, but in August his GB Rate is down to 35% and as his HR/FB Rate has normalized in July and August (15.4% and 14.3% respectively), Gonzalez's ISO has started to surge. Along with the additional lift unlocking some power, Gonzalez has tightened his strike zone and made more contact. His K Rate since the end of June has been just 8.2% and while his BB Rate hasn't returned to the previous elite levels, it has shown some modest signs of improvement in August (8%). While I think Gonzalez's 2012 season has tempered many of our expectations for a monstrous season in Fenway, I think the 2nd half is reminding us he's still a pretty darn good offensive player. Hopefully you held on through some of the struggles to start the season and are reaping the rewards of 1st round production here in the 2nd half.
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