Cliff Lee (SP-PHI)- Lee was shelled by the Brewers on Tuesday night, but did not earn the loss because of the Phillies comeback in the eighth inning. He allowed six runs on 12 hits (four home runs) and one walk while striking out six in seven innings of work. Lee's record remains at 1-6, and he saw his ERA increase to 3.95 for the season. Much has been made of Lee's struggles this season, but I happen to still be a believer in the former Cy-Young award winner. Both his 3.41 FIP and 3.13 xFIP indicate that he has pitched better than his numbers would lead one to believe, and he has been hurt by an increased HR/FB ratio this year (13.5 percent is a career high). In terms of his batted ball rates, he everything looks similar to last season except a two point increase in his fly ball rate (coming from his line drive rate). His .319 BABIP is also a career high, and I expect improvement considering his strong peripherals (8.52 K/9 and 1.75 BB/9).
Paul Maholm (SP-CHC)- Maholm delivered another strong performance on Tuesday night against the Pirates. He allowed only one run on four hits (one home run) and one walk while striking out seven in eight innings of work. He improved his record to 9-6, and lowered his ERA to 3.88 for the season. Maholm is putting together his best fantasy season since 2008 when he finished with a 3.71 ERA and a career best 6.06 K/9. While he has always been a strong ground ball pitcher (52.1 percent for career), Maholm has benefitted from a career best full season BABIP of .285. Most importantly, he has produced a career best 2.38 BB/9 with some help from his 63.1 percent first pitch strike percentage (another career best). A 4.16 FIP and 4.15 xFIP are in step with his ERA, but I would expect his strikeout rate to regress to his career rate of 5.50 K/9. He should continue to hold his own in deep leagues.
Jason Heyward (RF-ATL)- Heyward went 1-for-2 with two RBI, two walks and a strikeout to help lead the Braves to a 4-3 victory over the Marlins. He produced the game winning hit in the seventh inning to improve his slash line to .267/.346/.466 for the year. With 14 home runs and 14 stolen bases, 2012 is shaping up to be Heyward's best all around season, as he looks poised to finish the year as a 20/20 player. An adjustment in his fly ball rate (career best 50.3 percent) has helped him to produce a career best ISO (.199) and a 20.8 percent line drive rate has allowed him to produce a .322 BABIP compared to a dismal .265 rate last season. The increased power has come at somewhat of a price considering Heyward's strikeout rate has increased to a career worst 23.5 percent (His 11.4 percent swinging strike rate is also a career high), which is why he should finish with a lower batting average than his rookie year. I believe it is a trade-off owners are happy about.
Drew Stubbs (CF-CIN)- Stubbs went 3-for-4 with a walk, a strikeout and the game winning two run home run to help lead the Reds to a 4-2 victory over the Astros. The home run was his tenth of the season, and he as 19 stolen bases to go along with his .227/.297/.371 slash line. The 27 year-old outfielder has been hot over the last week hitting .320, but owners should be skeptical about whether he can get his line closer to his career average of .247/.320/.400. He has been hurt by a career worst .290 BABIP (.327 for career), but that drop has not been primarily luck driven. Stubbs has produced the highest ground ball rate of his career (50.5 percent), and his 17 percent line drive rate is below his career average. He will probably finish with more home runs than last season, as he has improved his HR/FB ratio from 11.5 percent in 2011 to 15.9 percent. Owners should expect a .230/.305/.375 type of line with 17-19 home runs by the end of the year.
Francisco Cordero (RP-HOU)- Cordero appeared in his first save opportunity for the Astros since being anointed the closer after Brett Myers was dealt to the White Sox on Saturday. He blew his first save after allowing three runs on three hits (one home run) and two walks without recording a strikeout in 0.2 innings of work. Drew mentioned on Twitter that he believes Wilton Lopez is worth a pickup, and I tend to agree with him considering some of Cordero's numbers. He has a 6.25 ERA along with a 5.93 FIP and 4.87 xFIP while his average fastball velocity has dropped to a career low 92.6 mph. Throw in the fact that Cordero has seen his ground ball rate drop from 50 to 40.5 percent, it is hard to imagine him last another two weeks as the closer let alone the rest of the year. Lopez is the best reliever in the bullpen, and I would be very surprised if he does not get the call eventually.
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