Starling Marte (OF - PIT): Baseball America's preseason #73 rated prospect debuted with a bang on Thursday night as Marte homered off the first pitch he saw. Marte finished the evening 2-4 with that run and RBI, immediately sending fantasy owners blindly to the waiver wire in search of the next big thing. Marte is an intriguing fantasy prospect because of a solid power-speed combination (.500 Slug, 21 SB in AAA), but also has enough holes in his game to make you wonder if he'll be productive in his first go around. Marte was striking out in over 21% of his AAA PA's and while his 6.5% BB% this year is an improvement over his career rates (5.1% BB%), his overall lack of plate discipline could be a significant challenge. With just 2 months of the season left it's hard to project how any young player will adapt to the big league level (small sample + part of it against weaker competition in September), but Marte's skills make him worthy of a speculative add in 12-team leagues and deeper. Just be careful who you're cutting to add Marte as the zone command issues could lead to an adjustment period at the big league level.
Anthony Rizzo (1B - CHC): Rizzo has been nothing short of fantastic hitting .323/.357/.527 through his first 100 PA's, but a look beneath the peripherals reveals some reason for concern. Rizzo has swung at 56% of pitches overall and has chased 42% of pitches outside the strike zone. As a result he's walked in just 4% of PA's. A strong 28% LD Rate coupled with a .204 ISO is driving the results, but with so much of his contact susceptible to being outside the strike zone there are concerns over whether those rates can continue. Rizzo has cut down the swinging strike rate from his time in the big leagues last year (8.8% vs. 14.3%) showing that the mechanical change to shorten his stroke has helped improve his overall game. However, it's a very select club of hitters that can be successful with Rizzo's current swing and chase rates. Only 11 hitters in the majors with enough qualified AB's have a chase rate above 40% (including rounding up) and of those Josh Hamilton, AJ Pierzynski, Adam Jones, and Alfonso Soriano are the only ones with an OPS above .800. As a Cubs fan, I'm excited about some of the strong results Rizzo has had this year both at the major league level and AAA, but the plate discipline numbers around his first 100 PA's are extremely concerning. The soon-to-be 23-year-old still has plenty of time to grow into an improved approach and still grow his power, but these are some of the reasons many scouts expect Rizzo to be a good, but not great, major league 1B. He's likely a Top 15 1B the rest of the way for fantasy purposes due to the power and lineup positioning, but it's hard to envision him cracking the Top 10 at this point in his career.
Homer Bailey (SP - CIN): Homer Bailey, even in an extended hot streak, remains an enigma to the baseball community. Bailey finished June with a 4.42 ERA and 1.37 WHIP, but has improved the marks to 3.53 and 1.27 thanks to five phenomenal starts in July. Coming into the season Bailey looked like a potential K% riser due to improved swinging strike rates and chase rates over his 2010 season, despite oddly experiencing a drop in his K%. This year Bailey has maintained those improvements in his core peripherals but his K Rate has once again taken a step down (21.5%-18.9%-17.7%). Interestingly, the K Rate has spiked during the recent hot streak as Bailey has posted an 8.12 K/9 and 1.91 BB/9 here in July. A favorable schedule (@HOU, @SD, @LAD as 3 of the 5 starts) is driving some of the big improvements, but one has to wonder if the K% improvement is something Bailey's core peripherals have long predicted. I'm leaning on the side of "schedule-induced breakout" rather than true step forward, but only time will tell. With two starts upcoming vs. SD and vs. PIT, Bailey owners can continue to enjoy the schedule-induced fun.
Dexter Fowler (OF - COL): I'm starting to think Fowler's 2012 breakout is flying WAY under the radar. Fowler is up to .302/.384/.527 this year thanks in part to a .382 BABIP (career .348) that is being supported by an improved LD Rate (up to 24%). Fowler's always possessed great plate discipline (career 21.4% chase rate) with an intriguing power-speed combination, but contact issues (career 79.4%) and an infatuation with what Fowler isn't (by his organization and manager) seem to have put a ceiling on his fantasy value. Even this year 69 of Fowler's 345 PA's (20%) have come in the 8th or 9th spot in the lineup. For a guy with a career .360 OBP and .384 OBP this year, Jim Tracy's lack of confidence in Fowler is puzzling. Perhaps the organizations lack of faith in their budding young star is part of the reason fantasy owners haven't caught on to just how good he is. Fowler currently ranks in the Top 80 on ESPN's player rater and with his combination of pop (career .163 ISO, .225 this year), speed, and home park it's easy to see a 15-15 season with 85+ Runs, 60+ RBI's and a league average batting average. He's a solid #3 OF in fantasy and should be treated as such going forward.
Matt Harvey (SP - NYM): Harvey's debut was sensational on Thursday night. Harvey flashed a plus slider with plus fastball velocity and benefited from a friendly outside corner that helped turn around a few AB's (from BB's to K's) for the young RH. It was evident from the start why scouts love the young RH and why our own David Regan ranked him as the #10 P prospect in all of baseball. Harvey's stuff is electric and induces some very defensive swings over the course of the game. On Thursday night he induced 17 swinging strikes and consistently threw fastballs inside the strike zone by Diamondback hitters. While the raw numbers and the stuff were eye-popping, there are reasons to expect some struggles at the big league level. Harvey benefited from a big zone that turned a few AB's around. He finished with 3 BB's, but easily could've had 5-6 with a tighter zone while also throwing 2 wild pitches. His 3.9 BB/9 at AAA suggested this might be an issue at the big league level and from the outing last night I think it's very legitimate. The strikeout rate at AAA was a solid 9.2 K/9 and should play well at the big league level, but ultimately the command will be an impediment to immediate stardom. With a two start week lined up against @SF and @SD, Harvey's a nice speculative add even in shallow mixed formats. Long-term I think the strikeouts will be consistent but the ratios (specifically WHIP) will be a struggle. The potential is worth a claim in all formats and owners can spot start him for now. If the command comes around, the upside is high. Eventually I think it will, but I'm not prepared to say it does in 2012.
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