Buster Posey C (SF) - Posey had a phenomenal day at the plate going 4-5 with his 12th homer of the year. He is now hitting an impressive .314/.382/.498. Posey is clearly one of the top hitting catchers in the league. His .300 average is supported by a double digit walk rate (chase rate 3 points below league average), 85% contact rate (5.9 swinging strike rate is 3 points below league average as well), sharp contact (22.7 LD rate) and an adequate amount of power (.185 ISO). At just 25 years of age, there is another leap for Posey to make still. If he can generate more loft (currently has a high GB rate of 48.6%, 49.5 for his career), it is scary to think the type of numbers that Posey can post out of the C position. He has the raw power (16.4 HR/FB%, 14.6 for his career) to take advantage of an increase in his FB rate. I don't expect this to happen this year, and Posey's current profile has him as a really good hitter. However, just know that there is still even more upside here.
AJ Burnett SP (PIT) - Burnett allowed only 1 ER (a solo HR) in 7.2 IP yesterday. He struck out 3, walked 1 and gave up 8 hits with an impressive 69.2 GB%. Burnett has the reputation as a strikeout pitcher, but that is what not his carrying him through this impressive campaign. Burnett's K% is actually just right in line with league average. However, that combined with a slightly better than league average BB% and more importantly a huge GB rate of 57% is driving his success. After pitching in the AL East and yielding 1.09, 1.21 and 1.47 HR/9 the past 3 seasons, Burnett is giving up just .75 HR/9 currently.
Ben Sheets SP (ATL) - Sheets was impressive for his second straight outing. He once again held the opposition scoreless over 6 innings of work. There is definitely some upside here as Sheets has struck out 24.4% of batters faced in his first 2 starts, with average control along with it to give him a K/BB ratio of 2.75. I think Sheets should be owned everywhere as a result of this, but expectations should be reasonable. Keep in mind that Sheets' batted ball data does call for some skepticism. He has a BABIP of just .233 despite allowing a LD rate of 27.4%, which is really high. Likewise, he has not given up a homer despite an extremely low GB rate of 27.6%. It looks like Sheets will be a solid fantasy contributor, of particular help to those who need K's; just don't expect a sub-3 ERA stud.
Jason Kubel OF (ARZ) - What a day it was for Jason Kubel as he knocked out 3 homers in a rout of the Astros. Kubel should surpass 30 HR and 100 RBI; he is simply locked in right now. Kubel's ISO is .272 and the power is a result of hard hit balls (24.6 LD%), loft (just a 29.5 GB%), patience (10.5 BB%) and raw power (19.4 HR/FB%). Kubel is playing a little over his head, but I don't see anything that screams regression. He has made minor improvements across the board to help his power profile as he has clearly benefitted from the league switch and ballpark switch (Target Field to Chase Field).
Wilton Lopez RP (HOU) - As I said in my blurb about Francisco Cordero, Wilton Lopez is actually the more skilled of the Astros relievers. If you have a spot for him, he is worth a stash either as a handcuff to Cordero or just as a saves upside guy in case Cordero falters. Lopez is working on his 3rd straight season with a sub-3 ERA. He has a career 57% GB rate, and his current .99 BB/9 would be the second time in 3 years he has walked less than 1 batter per 9. Those numbers keep Lopez out of trouble. With a career 4.11 K/BB ratio and a 7.25 mark this season, Lopez would definitely be a quality closer if given the chance.
