Yadier Molina C (STL) - Molina whacked his 14th homer of the year yesterday, and I really can't fathom the offensive turnaround he has experience the past 2 seasons. From 2004-2010, Molina posted ISO's ranging between .080 and .106. The lowest of that range occurred in 2010. From there, he posted a .160 ISO in 2011 and currently has a .204 ISO. After 2 straight years of such improvement, I don't think there is anything you can do but believe, at least to an extent. Molina is a legit .300 hitter with his contact rate around 90%, his LD rate at an impressive 25% and a newfound ability to hit for extra bases. I do suspect the power will trail off somewhat, though. Molina's current HR/FB% of 17.1% is nearly triple his career mark and nearly double last year's mark and probably unsustainable.
Mike Leake SP (CIN) - Leake posted a QS yesterday against an impressive offense in the Cardinals. For the second straight season, he is showing skills that make him a good matchups play in my eyes. He has a strong K/BB ratio of 3.04 and above average GB% of 48.5%; those are skills that should be playable. However, a lack of dominance (16 K%) and a proneness to the HR ball (career 13.7 HR/FB%) necessitates that you avoid playing Leake against quality teams in small parks. I'd probably avoid him his next time out (home against ARZ), but after that the schedule gets good. He is home against Houston the following week, and the week after that he has 2 starts (vs. SD, @PIT).
Drew Pomeranz SP (COL) - Pomeranz takes the hill today at home against the Phillies. It's always nice to see a top prospect succeeding (3.06 ERA), but I am pretty skeptical of Pomeranz. He doesn't have any above average skills. Pomeranz's "best" skill is that he is GB neutral (44%). Meanwhile, his K% is 2.3 points below the league average and BB% is 4.5 points higher than the league average, more than a 50% increase over it. Factor in a .250 BABIP and 6.3 HR/FB% that are likely to go up when you consider 1-those are just low to begin with, 2-he plays in Coors and 3-he has a LD rate of 24%, and I think things turn real ugly here for Pomeranz in a hurry.
Tim Lincecum SP (SF) - It was the Astros, but for one night Lincecum looked like he was back. Lincecum struck out 11 and walked just 1 over 8 shutout innings. Despite his struggles, his upside requires him to be owned everywhere and played almost every time out. Lincecum's strikeout rate of 24.4% is one of the lowest of his career but has finally climbed even to last year's mark. Meanwhile his BB% is the worst of his career at 10.8% as is the HR/9 (.95). Even with the deterioration in skill, though, Lincecum has an FIP of 3.70 that indicates his 5.93 ERA would seem to involve a lot of bad luck. This is true and not true. It's true that Lincecum's 60.9 LOB% is way too low for someone striking out a quarter of the batters they face; this is due to rise meaning a lower ERA. On the flip side, though, FIP uses Lincecum's K/9 of 9.89 (even with his career mark) rather than his K% of 24.4% (2 points below his career mark), and this is a flaw in FIP. Also, Lincecum's bad luck on balls in play (34 points above his career mark) is actually a reflection of skill in this case as his LD rate allowed of 24% is 4.5 points higher than his career mark. Given that information, the spike in HR/FB% is also not surprising. Put it all together and you have a guy worth owning and starting most times out (as previously stated) due to his upside, K's and environment. However, if anyone tells you there's not much wrong with Lincecum and that his FIP-ERA gap proves he's just been unlucky, that's not true in my opinion.
RA Dickey SP (NYM) - I feel like any Dickey owner panicking over yesterday's start (5 ER in 5 IP) needs to read fellow analyst Joe Hettler's Twitter timeline (@jhettler7). As Joe points out, Dickey, who has a 2.66 ERA this season, had a 2.84 and 3.28 ERA the past two seasons. He also had posted an insane 33 of 34 quality starts prior to June 24th. This is important for two reasons. First of all, Dickey did not come out of nowhere as it kinds of feel like. He's been really good over a substantial sample size. Secondly, when Dickey has had such a long run of success, it makes no sense to panic over a sample size of 4 starts in which 3 were bad. Dickey owners should hold tight, and others might want to try to grab Dickey from an owner who is fearing that he missed his opportunity to sell high.
