Justin Smoak- SEA- Idea-Smoak is 1-for-5 with 3 walks in his first 2 games since being sent to AAA Tacoma. It is quite possible that Smoak's minor league stay will be brief. He was hitting just .189 for the Mariners but had a .211 BABIP that had been sinking over the past couple of months. (.160 in June and .163 in July.) He had been pressing some as his July Batting EYE was only .18. This makes his 3 walks and 2 Ks in the early going of his demotion a positive sign. If he regains his Batting EYE and luck is close to neutral for him, his AAA production should be good and he will be back with the big club. Regression to the mean at that level will enable him to build his average as well as add more homers to his team high 13.
Derek Holland- TEX- Hot- Holland threw his 3rd quality start in 4 games since coming off the DL. However he is still plagued by a case of homeritis. Of the 5 hits he allowed in 7.2 IP, 2 were long balls. That makes 5 homers allowed in those last 4 games across 28 IP. In Holland's first 8 appearances of the year he only gave up 3 homers in 47.2 IP. In his last 8 appearances he has allowed 13 homers in 47.1 IP. Rangers Ballpark isn't to blame as 7 of those 13 homers have come on the road. It's unlikely that Holland will continue to enjoy his recent success if he doesn't do a better job of keeping the ball in the park.
A. J. Griffin- OAK- Rookie- Griffin has notched quality starts in every one of his 6 appearances since being called up to the majors. He has benefited from good luck since joining the A's, with a BABIP of .230. His FIP of 3.56 is over a run higher than his 2.25 ERA. Despite lacking an overpowering fastball, Griffin has consistently struck out hitters in the minors so his K/9 rate of 7.25 isn't surprising and his 2.00 BB/9 rate is also reasonable, given his past performance. Griffin projects as a middle rotation type, but is playing over his head at his point in his young career.
Lorenzo Cain- KC- Hot- Regression to the mean has helped Cain since he returned from the DL. His BABIP was down at .182 before he was originally hurt in April. Since being activated earlier this month it has been at .342 to even him out overall at .306. Cain has also raised his Batting EYE to .33 for the month and will probably increase it more based on his minor league numbers. Continuing a big second half is expected.
Quintin Berry- DET- Rookie- Berry is still enjoying good luck even as there is a slow descent of how much he is getting. His BABIP for the season is still at .391 after his monthly numbers have dropped from .542 to .377 to .333 since he was called up in late May. Berry's speed (15 steals in 52 games) indicate that his BABIP should be higher than average but still not this high. His underlying fantasy value is almost entirely in the steal column. The average has been a bonus but regression to the mean would harm his OBP, which will give him fewer opportunities to swipe bases.
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