Jake Peavy SP (CHW) - Peavy earned his 7th victory while striking out 7, walking 1 and allowing just 1 ER in 7.1 IP last night. The outing lowers Peavy's ERA to 2.85. I think Peavy's improvement in control is legitimate as this is the second straight year in Chicago that Peavy has posted an outstanding BB rate (5.1% and 5.5% past 2 seasons), which is greatly helping his cause. That and being a FB pitcher (34.3 GB%, FB pitchers generally have a lower BABIP) should allow Peavy to continue posting one of the better WHIP's in the league. Peavy has been a bit lucky with a BABIP, LOB% and HR/FB% all slightly fortunate in comparison to his career marks so some ERA regression is expected, but with a 4.15 K/BB ratio he should still be very good, just not great.
AJ Pierzynski C (CHW) - Pierzynski blasted his 16th homer of the year last night and is absolutely on fire. In fact, he is already just 2 homers away from his career high for an entire season. With Pierzynski's LD+FB% right in line with his career marks, we know the homers aren't a result of him generating more loft. Rather, Pierzynski is benefitting from an elite 21.6 HR/FB%. Given that Pierzynski's career mark is 9 and that he hasn't topped that career mark for 5 straight years, I expect him to slow down significantly over the season's second half and cap out around 25 homers total. Sell high here.
Alex Cobb SP (TB) - At first glance Cobb's start from last night simply looks okay as he struck out 4 and walked 2 en route to allowing 3 ER over 6 IP. However, he also posted an outstanding GB% of 70.6% giving him a 2.98 xFIP on the night. On the season Cobb's K ability is below average but he makes up for it with above average control (BB% 1.5 points below league average) and one of the best GB rates in the league (61.7%). Look for Cobb's 4.89 ERA to come down in the near future as his FIP (3.40) and xFIP (3.56) indicate he has been unlucky. Specifically, Cobb's current LOB% of 60.2% is sure to be on the rise.
Mike Trout (LAA) - Trout hit his 11th homer of the year last night and just continues to amaze me as he currently boasts a .347/.401/.562 hitting line. A pessimist will point to Trout's .404 BABIP as signs we all need to relax. While it is true that will likely fall, when you look at the big picture (.215 ISO, 25 LD%, elite speed) you begin to realize this is a guy who will be able to sustain a high BABIP given the stabilizing power, quality of contact and elite speed to beat out infield hits (current infield hit % of 11%). Those of you in keeper leagues need to treat Trout as if he will be a first round pick next season or at least second round; he is that good.
Kevin Millwood SP (SEA) - Millwood was sharp last night hurling 7 scoreless innings to bring his ERA down to 3.69. I think we see some regression here as Millwood's xFIP is 4.24. Millwood has had a fortunate HR/FB% (4.5%) that is way lower than his career mark of 9.6%. Some of this has to do with pitching in Safeco but some of it luck and random variation (3.5 HR/FB% on the road is even better than his 6.3 mark at home). I expect Millwood to give up more homers over the second half and to post an ERA over 4 as a result.
