Yu Darvish- TEX- Caution- Darvish has put together consecutive solid starts after hitting a rough patch. It must be kept in mind that these starts were against Houston and in San Diego. Also, Darvish threw a season high 122 pitches last night (the second time he has cracked 120 this year) and has 110 or more pitches in each of his last 4 starts. I know the Rangers don't ascribe to strict pitch counts but before this hot streak Darvish was struggling and still hit the 110 pitch mark anyway. Don't count his problems as behind him until he performs well against teams that don't have a combined record of 52-87.
Jason Vargas- SEA- Cold- In his first 8 starts this season Vargas allowed 5 homers. In his next 8 starts he allowed 15, including 5 yesterday. His FB% of 42.9% is actually lower than it was in 2010 or 2011. The propensity to give up gopher balls is negating any benefit he might have gotten from a .253 BABIP. If Vargas doesn't do a better job of keeping the ball in the park regression to the mean won't be just ugly. It will be hideous.
Josh Reddick- OAK- Cold- The luck pendulum has swung wildly this season for Reddick. His BABIP now stands at .289 for the year after his 0-for-19 stretch. Yet it is still at .366 for June after a .238 May and .289 April. Reddick's power has all but vanished lately, with 1 homer in his last 20 games. His Batting EYE has been only .29 in those 20 games after being at .50. Reddick's early season power surge may be a statistical anomaly.
Justin Morneau- MIN- Stats- Morneau is having horrible luck against lefthanded pitching, with a BABIP of .089 driving his .091 average against southpaws. Regression to the mean can't be depended on. Last year, Morneau had similar numbers, hitting .144 with a BABIP of .162. It looks like sitting him against lefthanders is the best thing to do.
Chris Archer- TB- Rookie- Archer settled down nicely in his major league debut, needing only 81 pitches to record a quality start. Don't expect him to continue to exhibit the same kind of control that allowed only 1 walk in 6 IP yesterday. His 5.28 BB/9 at AAA this year shows that he hasn't solved that part of his game. That is the biggest hurdle for Archer to overcome right now as he can be dominant (10.57 K/9 at Durham.) Archer was ranked as the #3 prospect for Tampa Bay before the season and has the potential to be a solid starter if he can keep finding the plate.
Follow me on Twitter all season - @fantisticspaul
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