AL Daily Notes - June 4th, 2012

Jake Arrieta (SP - BAL): Jake Arrieta's ugly May struggles (6.17 ERA) continued on into June as he yielded 4 ER's on 2 hits and 4 BB's over 4 2/3 innings on Sunday. Early in the season the jump in the velocity and Arrieta's command were inspiring signs that he may be putting things together. But as the year has worn on Arrieta's inability to induce weak contact (25% LD Rate, 14.1% HR/FB Rate) has lead to some disastrous results. Arrieta has now allowed 4 or more ER's in 7 of his last 9 outings and while he's pitched in some poor luck (61% LOB%, 3.98 FIP) his combination of skills makes starting him a game of Russian roulette. In mixed leagues it makes Arrieta a nearly impossible pitcher to deploy, but those in AL Only leagues should reserve and not drop. Arrieta's K and BB Rates can bring about a nice hot streak if he can simply fix the high LD Rate. Having entered the year with two seasons of league average LD Rates, there is hope that his current 25% LD Rate will regress over time. If the LD Rate and the LOB% can regress, Arrieta has the potential to post ERA's in the 4's with a WHIP in the 1.3's and a 7.5 K/9. That has value in AL Only leagues but for it to be unlocked Arrieta will need to cut down the LD's.

Nick Swisher (OF - NYY): It's been a pretty strange start to Nick Swisher's 2012 season. Swisher has been one of the most consistent performers in fantasy as he's topped 80 Runs and 20 HR's in each of the last 6 seasons which came along with a sub-.265 batting average in every season but one. Since coming over to the Yankees he's also driven in 80+ in each of those 3 years. Swisher always walked a great deal, hit for power, and swung and missed. This year the K Rate (21.5%, career 21.2%) and the power (.213 ISO, career .213 ISO) have been perfectly in-line but Swisher's BB Rate has dipped dramatically (7.7%, career 13.2%). The plate patience data confirms the dip in approach as Swisher's chase rate has risen dramatically (29.8%, career 19.6%) as has his swinging strike rate (12.5%, career 8.9%) and his overall swinging percentage (47.3%, career 40%). With Swisher swinging more often and chasing more pitches out of the zone, his plate patience has suffered but his power has remained. While there haven't been any signs of improvement in May, Swisher has walked 3 times in his first 3 games in June. Given the long and consistent track record in Swisher's approach, I have to think a recalibration comes at some point. With it, the Runs and Avg should rise and Swisher will get back to his strong Run pace. If the approach doesn't change we'll have to temper expectations down to a .240-70-25-85 type line.

Chris Sale (SP - CHA): Chris Sale's remarkable transition to SP continued on Sunday with the first complete game of his major league career. With the White Sox bullpen taxed, Sale was asked to go the distance (119 pitches) in closing out the Mariners. He allowed just 2 ER's on 5 hits and 2 BB's while striking out 8 to improve his record to 7-2 on the season. While questions remain about Sale's durability with his awkward arm action, there is no questioning his performance when healthy. Sale is posting above average peripherals in strikeouts (9.3 K/9, 25% K%), BB's (2.43 BB/9), and GB's (46%) giving him a phenomenal 2.59 xFIP. Sale's posted positive run values on all 3 of his pitches and all the plate discipline indicators (chase rate, swinging strike rate, etc) confirm his dominance. If he can stay healthy all season he's easily a Top 20 SP and potentially a top 10 SP. With the White Sox in contention and showing little concern for Sale's innings limits this year (could've skipped him on Sunday, could've pulled him shy of 119 pitches), owners have to be excited by the prospect of no innings cap. While very exciting for those in re-draft formats, I think owners in dynasty leagues should consider selling Sale near peak value. His delivery has many challenges to keeping him healthy long-term and the White Sox have already had some concerns with his elbow earlier in the year. While his skills scream elite young SP, his delivery suggests durability may be a concern. While I wouldn't sell at all costs, I would strongly consider floating out offers for other elite young talents (perhaps an Eric Hosmer?).

Seth Smith (OF - OAK): I remain utterly perplexed by Seth Smith's 2012. Smith has vastly improved his approach cutting his chase rate back down to 26.4% and posting a near career-low swinging strike rate of 8.3%. He's swinging at fewer pitches than ever before (40%) and as a result both his K and BB Rates have risen dramatically. The trading of BB's for a few more K's isn't a bad thing, but Smith has also traded some FB's for GB's which is resulting in a large dip in his power (.119 ISO, career .201 ISO). Perhaps the dip in ISO shouldn't have come as much of a surprise given Smith's career .201 ISO was largely a product of Coors Field (.154 career road ISO), but the sub -60 Runs scored pace is surprising for a player with such a strong BB rate. The A's haven't helped things much by hitting Smith towards the bottom of the order and as long as that remains, his value will be challenged. As a potential middle of the order bat on a watered down offense I though Smith had a chance to post a .265-65-15-60 type season which would hold value in traditional AL only leagues as a nice buy-low candidate, but with the power outage looking legitimized by the high GB Rate and the A's dropping him in the order, I'm relinquishing that optimism.

Nelson Cruz (OF - TEX): It was just a few weeks ago that I was getting questions on twitter and calls on our show asking about Nelson Cruz and I was preaching some caution with targeting him as a buy-low candidate. While Cruz is a streaky hitter in a great lineup, his peripherals were showing some legitimate deterioration this year. We'll start with the plate discipline where Cruz's swinging strike rate of 14.6% is 1.5 percentage points above his career norm. We'll then progress to Cruz's ISO (.175) that is 50 points below his career average, and finally we'll stop off at the BB Rate which at 5.9% is the lowest it's been since 2006. These are signs of aging and for Cruz (32 in July) it continues a near straight five-year decline in each of those peripherals. Add in the fact that Cruz has missed at least 34 games in every big league season and I think owners need to strongly consider selling high after this recent hot streak. When healthy Cruz has in the past been viewed as a Top 20 OF talent, but as he's aged his plate skills have slowed and his willingness to steal bases has also waned. Once a 30-20 candidate, Cruz is now more of a 25-10 player and given his 3-year average for Runs and RBI's is just 66 and 80, we're looking at a line that is likely going to finish somewhere around .265-65-22-75-10, which while still very useful is more of a back-end OF option than an elite one. The only reason not to sell Cruz now is betting that he'll be able to stay healthy the rest of the year and post a .265-75-25-90-12 type line. The skills are showing deterioration and the health track record is shaky, which makes him a fine sell high candidate if you can find someone to value him as a #2 OF.

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