Chris Archer (SP - TB): As owners head into the weekly deadline for lineup decisions I'm sure many will be wondering if Chris Archer makes for a potential two-start pickup. Archer is scheduled to face the Royals on Monday and then could get a 2nd start against Detroit at home if Jeremy Hellickson isn't ready to be activated after a minimum stay. With Archer's two-start status in question owners may shy away, but let's take a look at what we have with Archer if he does indeed take the mound twice. Archer's debut was impressive (6 IP, 1 ER, 7 K, 3 H, 1 BB, 50% GB Rate), but came against an overly-aggressive Nationals offense (.304 OBP) that helped minimize some of Archer's biggest weaknesses. Archer posted a 5.28 BB/9 rate at AAA this year, which is consistent with his career 5.2 BB/9 rate at the minor league level. Though Archer walked just 1 in his debut, he only threw 37% of his pitches inside the strike zone. In addition his 4.9% swinging strike rate in his debut wasn't as dominant as the 31.8 K% would suggest. Archer's got legitimate swing and miss stuff, as evidenced by his consistent 20+% K%'s in the minors, but the first start may have overstated his major league K Rate based on the early chase rate (25.8%) and swinging strike data. The good news for those considering Archer this week is that the Royals are a similarly challenged offense when it comes to plate patience. The Royals have drawn walks in just 6.9% of plate appearances this season (4th worst in baseball), making them a candidate to help limit Archer's command issues. The Tigers as a potential 2nd start are 9th worst in baseball with a 7.8% BB Rate. While both matchups may suit Archer's skill-set, he's still a high-risk/high-reward option who should be treated with care. Traditional 10 and 12 team leagues should probably pass on Archer unless they're simply chasing K's without any concern for ratios. Otherwise, Archer should be left for those in 14 team leagues and deeper or those in leagues where the impact of negatives is minimized (like points-based formats). His command issues and 4.81 ERA in AAA are evidence of the risk he carries.
Will Middlebrooks (3B - BOS): The Red Sox commitment to trading Kevin Youkilis and insert Will Middlebrooks as a full-time 3B certainly qualifies as an "up-arrow" for the rookie 3B, but I'm going to view this opportunity which comes at a time when Middlebrooks continues to put shame to his peripherals as a time to consider selling high (in re-draft formats). Middlebrooks homered for the third time in four games on Saturday night and is now on the verge of producing his 2nd consecutive .900+ OPS month at the big league level. The consistent level of elite performance is especially surprising given Middlebrooks aggressive approach (4.7% BB Rate). Middlebrooks isn't exactly a hacker (29% chase rate), but his low BB Rate does leave his OBP susceptible to a lot of balls in play. So far that's worked out as Middlebrooks has posted a .392 BABIP thanks in part to a 22% LD Rate. Once the BABIP normalizes (along with the HR/FB Rate - over 23%), Middlebrooks pace will slow. The good news for Middlebrooks owners is he's made strides in his approach as the season has worn on. Middlebrooks BB rate in June is up to 6.5% and his K Rate is down to just 16%. If he can maintain those peripherals the rest of the way perhaps we are in store for "elite" performance, but I'm betting it's more "good" than "great" the rest of the way for young Will and as a result I think cashing in on the hot start is a viable strategy.
Kendrys Morales (1B - LAA): It's been a mixed bag for Morales this season. While he's been able to get back on the field and demonstrate his health, he hasn't looked much like the hitter that burst onto the scene back in 2009. Morales never generated a ton of walks but he typically showed league average plate discipline in terms of chasing pitches outside the strike zone and as a result he was able to flex his raw power on pitches inside the strike zone. This year his chase rate has risen to over 37% and his contact rate has dipped to a career low 75%. As a result his K Rate has risen dramatically (24%) and his ISO has dipped down to just .157. On pace for just a .270-56-18-56, it's hard to see much optimism for the performance to grow beyond those numbers. If there's any reason for optimism in Morales' performance his power has rebounded modestly in June (.255 ISO), unfortunately it's also come with a 33% K Rate which has held down the batting average. Morales' still has upside worth holding onto, but I've become disenchanted with him in 10 team leagues and have started adding an upside name like Brandon Belt over him.
Ervin Santana (SP - LAA): Within yesterday's notes Mike Leone mentioned one of our latest "WhoYaGot" battles in which I took Jason Hammel and he took Ervin Santana for the rest of the year. After a stellar performance from Hammel on Friday night, Santana responded strongly for Mike on Saturday night. Santana allowed just 2 ER's on 4 hits and 0 BB's, while striking out 10 over 8 innings. It's the 2nd straight phenomenal start for Santana and not surprisingly both have come at home. For his career Santana's ERA at home is a full run below his ERA on the road and this season the gap has been exaggerated even further. At home Santana's HR-issues are mitigated a bit the thick LA air and the large dimensions. When the HR's are limited Santana's a pretty good pitcher; something that was being hidden early in the season by an astronomical 20+% HR/FB Rate. As that has started to normalize in recent weeks and Santana's K Rate has rebounded, the performance has started to get back to what we're accustomed to. Santana's 4.28 xFIP isn't far different from previous years. A 4.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with 6.5 K/9 seems like a fine expectation for Santana going forward. He's a fine back-end starter in traditional mixed leagues that can be particularly trusted when pitching in bigger ballparks that limit his issues with HR's.
Nelson Cruz (OF - TEX): A few weeks back I wrote a blurb detailing the reasons I believe selling Nelson Cruz was an appropriate move for owners that could get the perceived value of a top 20 OF for Cruz on the trade market. From the date of that blurb (June 4th) up until yesterday Cruz had rewarded my lack of confidence by slumping to a .204/.291/.347 line that included a 27% K Rate. Yesterday however Cruz busted out of that slump going 3-5 and launching 2 HR's to improve his 2012 line to .264/.318/.453. Cruz is a notoriously streaky hitter so perhaps he's in for an extended streak that can help recoup some of his value, but most of 2012 has been marked with a meaningful deterioration in his skills. Cruz has seen his K Rate rise for the 2nd consecutive season and his ISO plunge for the fourth straight year. His zone command has been fine but his contact rate and his performance against fastballs has been down considerably, suggesting his bat-speed may be slowing. Furthermore for the 2nd straight season Cruz has played like a platoon specialist posting a sub-.750 OPS against RHP. His fantasy value will still be held up to some degree by Texas great lineup and favorable home-park, but this is a player in decline and one that I still believe will have a difficult time holding Top 30 OF value the rest of the way.
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