Jason Hammel BAL (SP) - I just made an imaginary bet with fellow analyst Drew Dinkmeyer that Ervin Santana would have a better ROS fantasy wise than Hammel. Oops. Hammel got the scale immediately posting in Drew's favor as he struck out 10 in 8 IP without handing out a free pass. Hammel also posted a really solid GB rate for the day of 55%. Hammel's current skills currently justify his performance as his K% of 23.9% and GB% of 53.1% are well above league average, and the control isn't bad - BB rate right in line with league average. So, my concern with Hammel is not that he has been lucky but rather I am not a believer in the skills. Hammel has a pretty long history of being bad (ERA's last 5 seasons are 6.14/4.60/4.33/4.81/4.76). His current K% of 23.9% is way higher than his career mark of 16.6% and previous career high of 18.3%. His current GB% of 53.1% is way higher than his career mark of 45.8^ and previous career high of 46.9%. Hammel's peripherals aren't just slight improvements across the board of his career marks; they are mammoth leaps upon previous career high's. I just don't think that can last. And given his home ballpark (hitter's park) and pitching in the forgiving AL East, I think once the peripherals drop off Hammel will pay. Sprinkle in a little expected regression (BABIP 43 points below career mark, LOB% 9.8 points above career mark) and I think owners should be selling high on Hammel right now.
Mark Reynolds 1B/3B (BAL) - Reynolds hit just his sixth homer of the year last night, but I have to echo fellow analyst Eric's sentiments that a power surge is coming for Reynolds. Reynolds will always be subject to volatility due to his propensity to strike out, but the power profile is there this year (perhaps even improved) despite the low homer output. Reynolds is showing patience (15.3 BB%, 11.8 career mark) and even cutting down on the K's slightly (31.1 K%, 33 career mark). Reynolds is still generating loft with a LD+FB rate of 66.7% compared to his career mark of 64.5%. The reduced ISO and HR output specifically is not a result of Reynolds hitting pitcher's pitches as his 24.6% chase rate is 1.7 points below his career mark and substantially better than the league average (30%). Heck, even Reynolds' Infield Fly Ball % of 4.5% is a career best (career mark of 11.7%). Really that just leaves us with the low HR/FB rate to blame. Reynolds' current HR/FB mark of 13.6% is 7 points below his career mark and well below his most recent 3 year marks: 26/19.9/22.7. Given Reynolds' indicators I fully expect the HR/FB mark to regress towards what it has been the past 3 years, and given Reynolds' slight improvement across the board to his power profile, that should result in quite the hot streak.
Jon Lester SP (BOS) - Lester had just another so-so game yesterday as he allowed 3 ER in 7 IP off of 10 hits, but he did have a solid K/BB ratio of 5/1. Lester's K% has dropped pretty steeply for the second straight season (26.1/22.8/18.7), which is causing most of his problems (4.48 ERA, 1.37 WHIP). Lester's current K% of 18.7 is actually below the MLB average. It's tough for me to expect much of a bounce back as Lester's below average K% is supported by the fact that his chase rate against (29.6%) and swinging strike rate (8.6%) are both slightly below the MLB average. They are also just slight declines from last year's number. Lester is currently posting a solid GB rate (48.5%) and BB rate (6.7%), so with some better luck (BABIP 24 points above career mark, LOB% 9.2 points below career mark) his ERA should definitely fall. Unfortunately, given the K rate reduction Lester's upside appears to be a 3.50 ERA rest of season. He is a long ways off from the guy who seemed to be knocking on the door of elite status not that long ago.
Ryan Cook RP (OAK) - Cook blew his first save of the season last night as he gave up 4 ER off of 2 hits and 2 walks without recording an out. The blow-up caused his ERA to rise from .57 to 1.71. As a Cook owner I am worried that there may be more of these outings on the horizon. It will be tough for him to work a lot of clean innings as he is very wild, walking 16.1% of all batters he faces (nearly double the league average). This problem has been masked by a very solid K% of 26.6% but also a great deal of luck. Cook's current BABIP is absurdly low (.157) and at some point the pretty much GB neutral pitcher (44.1%) will give up a homer (0 allowed in 39.1 ML innings). Once the BABIP normalizes, Cook's job could be in jeopardy. I'd stash Grant Balfour as a handcuff; he has a sub-3 ERA for the third straight season. Cook's job is certainly secure for now, and I don't mean this blurb to sound like he will be awful. I just want owners to be aware that there is more risk here than the current ERA indicates.
Jarrod Parker SP (OAK) - Parker allowed just 1 ER in 6 IP last night to improve his ERA to 2.70 after 11 starts. Parker is probably a bit overrated right now as a lot of his success has been dependent on luck and things that are not sustainable. For starters, Parker has a .255 BABIP. He doesn't have much of a history for us to compare that to, but most starters are between .290-.300. Even the starters that consistently have low BABIP's are generally at .270 or a little higher. Also, Parker has a LOB% of 78.8% which is high for anyone, particularly a pitcher whose K% of 18 puts him 1.6 points below the league average. Finally, Parker's HR/FB% 3.3% can't possibly stay this low; I expect it to be at least doubled by season's end. To me, Parker is a high 3's ERA rest of season type of pitcher. In most leagues look at him more as a matchups/guy you can start at home rather than a must start option.
