AL Daily Notes - June 18th, 2012

Garrett Richards (SP - LAA): For the third consecutive start Garrett Richards held an opponent to 2 ER's or less and for the second straight start we're left wondering just how he did it. Richards posted the following peripherals for the game: 5.63 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 28.6% GB Rate, 19% LD Rate and somehow that resulted in an 8 IP 4 H 0 ER 4 BB 5 K line. Richards did generate a phenomenal 15 swinging strikes (8 on his slider) on his 104 pitches (14.4% swinging strike rate), but the rest of the peripheral data would qualify as underwhelming. Still, Richards now holds a 0.86 ERA through 3 starts and owners are going to be clamoring around the waiver wire for his services; but should they? Richards xFIP after the 3 starts is a disappointing 4.73 as he's posted below average BB Rates (4.71 BB/9) and GB Rates (40.7%) to go with an average (7.29 K/9) K Rate. A .226 BABIP and remarkable 93.2% LOB% are really the drivers of Richards' success and while he does have some prospect pedigree (BA ranked him #83), his results in the minors (4.41 FIP at AAA this year) have not been overwhelming. As a result, I'm passing on Richards who has made the best of a favorable schedule and the league having yet to adjust to him. In addition to some statistical risk, Richards also has the potential to lose his spot in the rotation with Jered Weaver's return, which could come within the next two weeks. Don't overpay for the hot start.

Jose Quintana (SP - CHA): Quintana made it 7-7 in appearances that he's made this year in which he's allowed 2 ER's or less (5 of which have been starts). On Sunday, he shutout the Dodgers over 8 innings allowing just 5 hits, walking no one and striking out 6. Quintana allowed a 29% LD Rate during the game but benefited from a .250 BABIP allowed. This has been the recipe for success for Quintana so far as he entered play on Sunday with a 20.7% LD Rate allowed and just a .271 BABIP allowed. Quintana hasn't been able to generate many strikeouts (5.09 K/9), but his refusal to walk opposing batters (1.53 BB/9) coupled with favorable BABIPs and HR/FB Rates (5.1%) have held down the ERA. Looking ahead Quintana's low BB Rate and below average K Rate will allow much of his success to be determined by the batted ball. Once the BABIP and HR/FB Rates normalize we're looking at a mid 4's ERA pitcher with a 1.30's WHIP. In deep leagues Quintana will hold some value as a potential back-end spot starter, but in traditional 10 and 12 team leagues owners shouldn't put much stock into the hot start.

Tom Wilhelmsen (RP - SEA): After a particularly rough stretch in late May for Brandon League, the Mariners decided to make a change in the closer's role promoting Tom Wilhelmsen. Since that point Wilhelmsen has thrown 6 2/3 scoreless innings allowing just 2 hits, 2 BB's, and 7 K's, while picking up 4 saves and a Win. Despite the strong production, the Mariners coaching staff has given every indication that they'd prefer to get Brandon League back into the closer's role. This includes a comment from Eric Wedge as recently as June 10th indicating that League would be in the closer's role "sooner rather than later". On Sunday the tide turned a little bit as Wedge suggested Wilhelmsen would hold the closer's role for the time being. When comparing the two closing options, there's really not much of a comparison. Wilhelmsen is striking out over 10 batters per 9 innings while League's K/9 has settled in around the low 6's. Wilhelmsen's BB Rate has been below 3 BB/9, while League's has been challenging 4.75 BB/9. The two are posting the same GB Rates, but with fewer balls in play and fewer base-runners given free passes, Wilhelmsen is clearly the superior option. I'm still hesitant to crown Wilhelmsen as the closer for the rest of the season given the Mariners affinity for League, but if left to a competition... there won't be one. Wilhelmsen is clearly the better option and should hold the role as long as the decision is made based on skill.

Ichiro Suzuki (OF - SEA): Ichiro went 0-4 on Sunday dropping his 2012 line to a measly .255/.282/.363. It's been an interesting season for Ichiro as he's seen his ISO return to the .100+ level , but his fantasy production has continued to slide and the primary driver has been a metric Ichiro has long defied - BABIP. For his career Ichiro has posted a .348 BABIP that has been driven by a phenomenal 20.5% LD Rate and 12.5% infield hit rate, but this year Ichiro's BABIP has stalled at .267 - just one year after posting a more neutral .295 BABIP. During the last two years Ichiro's LD Rate hasn't shown any regression, but his infield hit rates have steadily dropped (10% last season, 7.3% this year). As Ichiro enters his age 38 season its becoming clear that the skill deterioration he's experiencing isn't necessarily in his bat skills, but in his legs. With Ichiro having attempted just 9 SBA's this year and the infield hit rate dropping the statistical data is starting to confirm what most would've expected. Ichiro's BABIP will likely show some positive regression from here, the years of extraordinary .330+ BABIPs are likely gone. As a result Ichiro's strongest skill is unlikely to return and we have to start treating him as a .280's hitter and no longer the annual .300+ contributor. With fewer on-base opportunities and the speed waning, we can also start tempering expectations in the SB category. Though he still has tremendous name value, Ichiro is likely no more than a bench OF in traditional formats.

Delmon Young (OF - DET): Delmon Young wasn't in the lineup on Sunday as the Tigers shifted to using Quinton Berry in LF with Miguel Cabrera DH-ing and Don Kelly playing 3B. Given the Tigers struggles defensively this year and Delmon Young's lack of offensive production (82 wRC+) this is an alignment that I wouldn't be surprised to see more often. Young's become a platoon player (.836 OPS vs. LHP, .605 OPS vs. RHP) and the quicker the Tigers figure this out the better off they'll be. Young's continued to regress as a player as evidenced by declining chase rates and swinging strike rates that have cut down the number of balls Young has been able to put in play. While he stills posts strong LD Rates, his power has been sapped and he's completely ineffective against RHP. He only holds fantasy value in deep formats, specifically AL Only where the counting stats hold some value; and even in those formats with his playing time at risk his value is in decline.

Alex Gordon (OF - KC): Usually when you have a player participate in a 15-inning game and not pick-up a hit you get nervous about how big of a batting average hit you just took, but on Sunday Alex Gordon did just that and managed to go just 0-3 as he drew 5 walks. The extra walks have been a big part of Gordon's improvements this year, but the drop-off in power has significantly altered his fantasy outlook. Gordon has improved his BB Rate, cut down his strikeouts thanks to an improved contact rate and even upped his LD Rate to a stellar 23.5%. Unfortunately for Gordon owners a 4 percentage point rise in his GB Rate coupled with an absurdly high infield fly ball rate (18.5%) has dropped from .200 to .141. Gordon's 7.7% HR/FB Rate is 2.5 percentage points below average and will eventually regress back towards his 10% career rate - that regression should account for another .10 on his ISO. The rest of the regression will need to come from a drop in that excessively high infield fly-ball rate which is limiting the 2B's and 3B's production. It's possible the .200 ISO Gordon posted last year is a peak in his power performance, but even if we grant that, I think the current .141 ISO has plenty of room to run based on Gordon's mediocre batted ball data. A look at the month-by-month splits for Gordon shows ISO's of .195, .080, and .185. In 2011 Gordon posted ISO's of .202, .209, .143, .214, .225, and .200. His remarkable consistency in the power categories month-by-month reveals Gordon has lost a little pop this year, but as much as his .140 ISO suggests. Look for the ISO to settle in closer to .180 and with it Gordon's all-around production should rise. He still has Top 30 OF upside and I'd project him comfortably as a Top 40 OF the rest of the way.

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