Jeff Samardzija (SP-CHC)- Samardzjia lost his second game of the season on Friday against the White Sox, but pitched well in the outing. He allowed three runs on six hits (two home runs) with two walks and eight strikeouts in 7.1 innings of work. Samardzjia now has a 3.00 ERA in 51 innings and his FIP (2.97) and xFIP (2.96) indicate that he has earned that number. He came into the game with a 12.9 percent swinging strike rate (the best among starting pitchers in 2012), and his 60.1 first pitch strike rate and 35.8 percent chase rate (both career highs) confirms his 2.82 BB/9 is no fluke. Owners should not have to worry about a regression any time soon, and an ERA below 3.50 to finish the season is looking more and more likely with each passing start. He is a must start in almost every matchup, and surprisingly is available in 44 percent of Yahoo leagues.
Heath Bell (RP-MIA)- Bell recorded his fourth save of the season on Friday night against the Indians working a 1-2-3 inning and lowering his ERA to 8.56 for the year. While owners will take any scoreless outing from Bell at this point, his numbers are still very alarming and have not improved over the last few weeks. He came into the game with a dismal 4.9 percent swinging strike rate and his chase rate was hovering just a tad over 20 percent. His inability to get his curveball close to the strike zone has hurt most of his numbers, but his fastball has not generated many swinging strike either. The good news is that Bell still has the closer's role despite the awful month and a half, and it would be hard to imagine him losing the job later considering his performance couldn't have gotten any worse than it did in April.
Edwin Jackson (SP-WAS)- Jackson did not earn a decision against the Orioles on Friday despite holding them to one run over eight innings. He struck out eight and allowed five hits and one walk while lowering his ERA to 3.31. Jackson's improved control (1.78 BB/9) and ability to generate weak contact (14.5 percent line drive rate entering Friday's game) has allowed him to get off to one of his best starts to the season. His 66.7 percent first pitch strike percentage suggests this improved walk rate will not see much regression, and a career best 12.8 percent swinging strike rate has allowed Jackson to strike out a career best 8.01 hitters per nine innings. His incorporation of his curveball and improvement of his change-up can help explain his better swinging strike numbers. At 28, it finally looks as if he is starting to put everything together.
JD Martinez (LF-HOU)- After a strong two weeks to start the season, Martinez has crashed over the last month. He went hitless in four at-bats against the Rangers on Friday, and struck out three times. His home run total is stuck at three for the season, and his slash line has dropped to .218/.329/.328 for the season. A .264 BABIP and a 21.4 percent strikeout rate have wreaked havoc on Martinez's batting average. His BABIP has been hurt mostly because of a 58.9 percent ground ball rate (tenth highest among qualified hitters). His strikeout rate is due to drop considering his 8.6 percent swinging strike rate is an improvement from last season, and his walk rate has jumped to 14.3 percent as he has improved his chase from 33.6 percent to 24.2 percent. However, if he does not improve his ground ball rate, he could be stuck with a .230 type of average and 10-12 home run until the end of the season. Matt Downs could see some more playing time in the outfield, and a demotion back to the minors could be in Martinez's future if he does not start to improve.
Ryan Braun (LF-MIL)- Despite the Brewers getting blown out by the Twins, Braun had a strong day in the batter's box going 3-for-4 with a monstrous home run and two RBI. He now has eleven home runs for the season, and he improved his slash line to .317/.394/.626. Looking at just his numbers for 2012, one would have a hard time believing that Braun went through the most difficult offseason of his career. His .309 ISO is just a point shy of his career best average he posted in his rookie season, and his .436 wOBA is at a career high. Braun's average has dropped from the .330 range because of a drop in his line drive rate from 20.9 to 17.3 percent. However, Braun's fly ball rate has increased to a career best 45.5 percent and coupled with a 22 percent HR/FB rate means that Braun has a legitimate shot to hit 40 home runs this season, which would be a career high. I expect his HR/FB ratio to decrease closer to his 18.2 percent career rate, but a 45.5 percent fly ball rate suggests he should have a new career high in home runs for 2012.
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