Just to preempt some questions that I'll get this week ... I see Prospect Central as a way to talk a little more in depth about some prospects that don't get a huge amount of copy in the fantasy world, and hopefully to give subscribers a little clearer picture of some of these players, a little earlier than they would otherwise see that picture, while they still get to make decisions on them.
The Bryce Harpers, Mike Trouts, and Jesus Monteros of the world get talked about a lot, here on Insiderbaseball.com and elsewhere and they'll get a lot of coverage from our staff here. They all "graduated" from the Prospect Central corner of Insiderbaseball.com last year, or before, when it was no longer possible to provide a "jump" on these players.
These guys aren't tough calls in 2012 ... Here in Prospect Central like helping you with the tougher calls.
Drew Hutchison - Pitcher - Toronto
Drew Hutchison made his MLB debut for the Jays last Saturday at the age of 21, and threw 99 pitches against the Royals allowing 5 runs on 8 hits, including 2 HRs, in 5.1 with 3 walks and 4 Ks.
Drew was a 15th round pick in the Jay's star-crossed 2009 draft, and in retrospect he represented a real find, and he was one of that draft's high spots. He rose quickly through the Jay's system last year climbing 3 levels to make 3 starts on the Merrimack River in Manchester NH for the Fisher Cats where he pitched very well, looking near-dominant in at least a couple innings.
Drew leads with a 2-seam fastball that straddles 90mph but he also throws a low-to-mid 90s 4-seam fastball, along with a change and a slider. Both fastballs have good life and his change matured quite a bit in 2011. The slider is a work in progress and sometimes it's lazy instead of biting.
All of this works because of the life on his fastball and his strong, potentially-plus, control and command. That's his strong suit. On the other hand he strikes out hitters while missing surprisingly few bats and his LD%s in AA were 29% and 22% respectively in '11 and '12.
Not having seen him against more experienced hitters at AAA we know less than usual about how well his stuff will translate to the majors. Fastball/change starters are not usually a good bet as hitters can sit on one and watch for another. Against the Royals Drew allowed 3 runs on 3 hits, a HR, and 2 walks while getting just 4 outs in his third time through the order. Fatigue probably played a part of course, but at this level that will be a key, watching how well hitters catch up to him the second and third time they see him.
A true breaking pitch doesn't seem to be in the offing and there's only 6 mph of delta between his FB and CH (and his slider sits exactly where his change sits on the speed dial) so Drew is going to be working on slim command and control tolerances at the big league level.
Many see him as a #3 but I think that is best case scenario, if his slider shows some strong gains. Working with John Farrell will help. He's just 21 so you have to believe there's some overall growth potential here. For this tour however I prefer a wait and see approach.Long Term Fantasy Grade - C+
YR Lvl IP ERA WHIP K9 BB9 HR9 OBA BABIP LOB% 10 A- 45.0 3.00 1.02 8.8 2.4 0.2 .201 .266 65.8 10 A- 23.2 1.52 1.01 7.2 2.7 0.4 .189 .229 77.2 11 A- 72.0 2.63 1.21 10.5 2.4 0.1 .242 .342 68.9 11 A+ 62.1 2.74 0.90 9.5 2.0 0.4 .190 .257 71.7 11 AA 15.0 1.20 0.80 12.6 1.2 0.0 .192 .323 85.7
Will Middlebrooks - Third Base - Red Sox
Normally early in the season I try to stick to prospects who are on the MLB level as everyone massages their post draft rosters. But I have had several inquiries about Will because first, he's red hot, and second, you can pick your preferred storyline on Kevin Youkilis. What do you like? Generally declining skills? Accumulation of injuries catching up? Clubhouse/management issues? A $12M club option for 2013? Youk's end of this equation will sort itself out so let's talk about Wil.
I had the pleasure of working with the Spinners when he got off the bus from Texarkana for his first pro season. That was a bit of struggle, but this year's tour in AAA, his second (he had 56 ABs at the end of last year) has not been. He's scorching the IL at .375/.430/.778 as I am writing this with a .403 ISO in 72 ABs. His zone control rates has taken a leap as well here in the early going. What we are seeing is the next plot points in a generally upward progression.
Will is big strong and athletic. He has very good bat speed but to this point he has watched the ball in deep trying to contain his strike zone and as a result he works the middle of the field to right center offensively. What he's doing so far this year is being more of an offensive hitter. As he continues to pull more and lift the ball effectively (backspin), more power will come, and if these contact and zone control gains are real (to some extent, have no doubts, there will be some backward slippage here as the season wears on) he's raising his ceiling a bit.
Defensively Will is more than adequate at third and should be able to hold the position on an everyday basis. He's at least the defensive equal of Youk at this point.
At 23, he's learning how to swing, learning how to work counts, and he's learning quickly. Will may not play much of a role in 2012, although the ever-present possibility of an injury to Youk could change that. The real question becomes whether Will and/or Youk can make the club option on Youk a difficult decision this fall.
Either way Will looks like a #5 or #6 in the making with .270/20/80 being almost a conservative projection. I think there are gains available (and happening as we speak) in his contact and power skills which may make .280/25/90 reachable.
Long Term Fantasy Grade - B+YR Lvl AB AVG ISO HR SB BB% K% BABIP 09 A 374 .265 .139 7 7 11.2 28.8 .372 10 A+ 436 .275 .163 12 5 7.1 25.2 .348 11 AA 371 .302 .218 18 7 5.3 23.9 .363 11 AAA 56 .161 .107 2 3 5.0 30.0 .189 12 AAA 72 .375 .403 8 3 8.9 12.7 .352
Jarrod Parker - Pitcher - Diamondbacks
Jarrod Parker got his second major league start against the White Sox on Wednesday allowing just 1 run over 6.1 IP on 7 hits and 1 BB on 5 Ks (99 pitches).
Jarrod came to the A's in the Trevor Cahill deal after missing all of 2010 due to TJS. Neither his K rate nor his BB rate rebounded to the level we saw from Jarrod at the lower ML levels but they weren't too far off what we saw in his previous AA tour.
This year in AAA he's shown gains in both columns however and his GB% has held at 53.7% so far this year after a 52.7% in AA in 2011.
Jarrod throws low-to-mid 90s with a slider, and change. Jarrod dabbles with a curve but it's rarely seen He's a bit slight at 6-1/195 and hasn't quite regained his pre surgery velocity, but his mechanics are good and simple and repeatable. The GBs come from good sink on his fastball. His low-90's average is only 5-7 mph over his change and slider. His slider and change or more than tempo changers however. They are swing and miss pitches and will be strikeout pitches soon. That is going to keep his K rate up which when matched with his strong GB% is going to give him a very tough 1-2 to present to offenses.
Jarrod is generally considered a front-of-the-rotation-level prospect, and I am not going to sit here and tell you he isn't, but I think I want to see just a bit more recovery from his surgery, and I'd especially like to see him regain another half foot on his fastball.
Still you can reasonably assume that his secondary stuff will continue to get better and he has a good approach to the craft so he'll get better at game planning and sequences as he goes. Of course he's in a good ballpark too. I don't know if I see an elite pitcher here quite yet, but he's clearly got the ceiling of a #1
Long Term Fantasy Grade - A-YR Lvl IP ERA WHIP K9 BB9 HR9 OBA BABIP LOB% 08 A 117.2 3.44 1.24 9.0 2.5 0.6 .245 .312 68.4 09 AA 78.1 3.68 1.48 8.5 3.9 0.2 .270 .351 73.2 11 AA 130.2 3.79 1.28 7.7 3.8 0.5 .231 .288 69.6 11 MLB 5.2 0.00 0.88 1.6 1.6 0.0 .190 .200 100.0 12 AAA 20.2 2.18 1.35 9.2 2.6 0.9 .272 .345 87.3
Wily Peralta - Pitcher - Milwaukee
Wily Peralta got a cup of coffee with the big club last week, making a relief appearance against the Rockies allowing 3 hits in an inning of work with 1 strikeout. He was filling in for Kameron Loe who was on the bereavement list. Peralta was sent back to Nashville on Monday.
The hefty, 6-2/225, 22-year-old right-hander throws the standard fastball/change/slider combo with his fastball roaming in the low-to-mid 90s (although he averaged 95.2 in his IP with the Brewers)
Wily works down in the zone with some natural sink, and that has produced excellent GB% at the higher minor league levels including a 54.1 GB% in his second tour of AA in 2011, and his current 56.5 GB% in his second tour of AAA this year. That has helped him considerably in the PCL.
That ability to throw GB is pretty all that makes his stuff special however and at this point at least it's hard to project either of Wily's secondary pitches as plus pitches.
Control is an issue too although Wily's been progressing steadily in that column as he works through the system. His K rates have fluctuated, but they've been generally good and he should be able to generate 7/9 at the MLB level which combined with potentially excellent GB%s makes him a viable MLB starter, if he can maintain both of those rates up here.
Wily will likely return at points this season but his 2012 contribution is likely to be sparse, barring something unforeseen. Long term he has the ceiling of an innings-eating #3. Marc Hulet at Fangraphs comped him with Bartolo Colon and I really can't top that. I think that's a pretty good picture of Wily both in terms of physicality and stuff.
Long Term Fantasy Grade - C+YR Lvl IP ERA WHIP K9 BB9 HR9 OBA BABIP LOB% 09 A 103.2 3.47 1.32 10.2 4.0 0.4 .230 .315 71.6 10 A+ 105.0 3.60 1.34 6.4 3.4 0.4 .248 .293 69.3 10 AA 42.1 3.61 1.58 6.2 5.1 1.1 .265 .297 76.6 11 AA 119.2 3.46 1.29 8.8 3.6 0.7 .239 .305 69.5 11 AAA 31.0 2.03 1.03 11.6 3.2 0.0 .191 .300 78.8
Joe Weiland - Pitcher - Padres
After a shaky debut start, 22-year-old Joe Weiland put 12 solid innings together over his second and third starts against the Phillies and Nats allowing 3 runs on 10 hits and 3 walks with 11Ks. He's scheduled to go tomorrow against the Brewers and Randy Wolf.
Joe's early minor league history did nothing to distinguish him or excite anybody, but he found something last year that propelled him four levels before he was dealt by the Rangers to the Padres in the Mike Adams deal.
Joe works a fastball, an excellent curve, a change and a slider. He cruises near 90 with his fastball and he can add and subtract a foot here and there to keep hitters unbalanced. His vertical curve is his best pitch however, coming in 14 mph below his fastball, and he throws it a lot, nearly 25% so far in the majors. His change shows very good depth and slide for his maturity and experience level. Joe's slider is workable, but it just shuffles the deck at this point and give him a different card against LHH.
The recipe is working at the MLB level so far with a solid 9.2 SwStr% and a 35% chase rate. His normally strong control has slipped a bit so far but that will rebound. He's been a bit lucky with BHIP (.250) and LOB% (74.5) so there's some negative correction coming too.
In the minors Joe didn't have a strong GB pedigree but that doesn;t hurt him much in Petco. His home ballpark and normally excellent control give him the ceiling a of a Low #3, but everything has to go right for him to get there. He looks more like a fairly safe, inning-eating #4. From a fantasy standpoint he looks like a match up guy although matchup play may get a little less critical as he matures.
Long Term Fantasy Grade - CYR Lvl IP ERA WHIP K9 BB9 HR9 OBA BABIP LOB% 09 A 83.0 5.31 1.52 7.9 2.6 0.8 .290 .349 52.8 10 A 89.0 3.34 1.11 7.2 1.5 0.4 .248 .303 68.5 10 A+ 59.0 5.19 1.31 9.5 1.5 0.9 .272 .343 60.9 11 A+ 85.2 2.10 0.96 10.1 0.4 0.7 .239 .317 82.2 11 AA 26.0 2.77 1.12 6.2 2.1 0.0 .230 .281 67.7 11 AA 44.0 1.23 1.05 7.4 2.3 0.4 .213 .262 85.7 12 AAA 7.2 3.52 1.57 12.9 2.4 0.0 .313 .476 75.0 12 MLB 17.0 4.76 1.29 6.4 3.2 1.6 .239 .250 74.5
