Freddy Galvis - Second Base - Phillies
21-year-old Freddy Galvis started off the season 0- for -10 before collecting a 2-run double to snap the streak. He entered the weekend 5- for -14 including his first career HR on Friday. Freddie takes over for Chase Utley at second, predominantly due to his defensive abilities, but the Phillies hope that the gains he made over the last two seasons offensively hold at the big league level.
Freddy's minor league history shows some good contact skills but what can almost be called an unwillingness to take a walk, with a string of sub-4 BB%s surrounding a career high of 6% in his third tour of AA last year. Power has been similarly lacking with only that same AA campaign producing a triple-digit ISO of .128.
Freddie is an elite defensive prospect and has been since being signed out of Venezuela at the age of 14 in 2006. He reached AAA at the age of 21 and he may, at that point, have already become the best defensive SS not in the majors. He moves to second base for the Phillies at the MLB level however which will add to the height of his 2012 learning curve.
Galvis is just 5-9/170 and while he's made some ground physically due to a weight training program, he's unlikely to develop much real power. He squares up the ball in BP and sprays line drives but that had not translated to the plate until he posted a 25.7% LD in 121 AAA ABs last year. That led to a .350 BHIP which in turn led to a .298 BA. If all of that is looking a little soft to you I am right there with you.
Freddie may not be ready for the big leagues offensively (although he doesn't look totally overmatched at this point), and that combined with the amount of adjustments he'll have to make to get acclimated to big league pitching, and second base, makes Freddie a questionable fantasy play.
What Freddie does present of value is a steady stream of ABs and the potential to contribute some SBs. Just how many is unclear, because it's unclear how many ABs Freddie is looking at this year. Michael Martinez, the Phillies Rule V claim is out until at least late May with a fractured foot, your guess on Chase Utley is as good as mine, but the Phillies could make a move to bring in an MLB 2B at any point they feel things aren't working out. 450 ABs could result in 12-14 SBs but 450 ABs is somewhat of a long shot bet.
This year anything he contributes is gravy and the party could end at any time. For right now he's only viable if you simply need a warm body or desperately need an SB. Long term, with regular PT, he could, somewhere down the line, hit .270/8/15 or so.
Long Term Fantasy Grade - C-YR Lvl AB AVG ISO HR SB BB% K% BABIP 09 A+ 251 .247 .060 1 6 3.7 15.8 .293 09 AA 61 .197 .049 1 0 3.2 11.1 .208 10 AA 502 .231 .078 5 15 5.5 16.3 .269 11 AA 422 .273 .128 8 19 6.0 14.7 .308 11 AAA 121 .298 .066 0 4 2.4 14.3 .350
Alvarez Henderson - Starter - Blue Jays
Alvarez Henderson was a favorite of ours at his call up last year and he threw 63.2 good IP for the Jays down the stretch, going 1-3. 3.56/1.14. Henderson gave up 7 runs in his first 10.2 IP last year meaning that in his remaining 8 starts he allowed 18 runs in 53 IP for a 3.05 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP.
Henderson throws low-to-mid-90s, as the result of some strong velocity gains as a pro. His fastball dives for the plate, he throws ground balls, and he has shown strong control rates in his 4 pro seasons. What he has lacked over his career is a strong strikeout rate. His 6.7/9 in AAA last year was a career high and translated as expected into the majors as Alvarez fanned 5.6/9 in his 10 MLB starts. That leaves little margin for error and when you add in the 8 HRs he allowed (in 63.2 IP after allowing 7 in 88 AA IP) you understand how things could have easily looked worse. He benefitted from a career high 77.2% LOB and a career low .281 BHIP, both of which he'll be hard pressed to repeat this year.
If your K rate is going to be sub 6/9, especially in the AL East, you have to do at least one of two things, throw a lot GBs, or severely limit your walks. Alvarez walked just 1.1/9 with the Jays last year and only had one season in the minors with a BB/9 over 2 ... so, check.
His MLB GB% was 53.5% last year and between the Fisher Cats (AA) and Dunedin (A+) last year his GB% was 52.7% ... So check there too.
Henderson has good stuff, good velocity, and nice downward movement. He's capable. What he needs to do however in the majors, to be valuable, is strike out more batters. Even with his strong control and ability to throw GBs, a 5.5 K rate just makes things too hard to depend on a 21-year-old (until next week) starter in the AL East.
At his age, and now under the daily tutelage of John Farrell, I'm not sure he's topped out his velocity either, and an extra half a foot would make a big difference here. Additionally while his control is strong, there are still gains to be made with his command. Improvements in either area could up that K rate to a viable level.
I still see Alvarez as a match up pitcher this year unless or until he proves otherwise. I like a lot of what he does but until that K rate chins over 6/9 it's risky to run him out there in unfavorable matchups.
I give him a #3 ceiling if he makes some gains in the K column, otherwise he's a back-end-of-the-rotation guy who could provide some value if you pick his starts carefully.
Long Term Fantasy Grade - C+YR Lvl IP ERA WHIP K9 BB9 HR9 OBA BABIP LOB% 09 A 124.1 3.47 1.13 6.7 1.4 0.1 .247 .302 63.6 10 A+ 112.1 4.33 1.46 6.3 2.2 0.8 .295 .338 67.5 11 AA 88.0 2.86 1.11 6.8 1.7 0.7 .244 .286 77.0 11 MLB 63.2 3.53 1.13 5.7 1.1 1.1 .259 .281 77.2
Tommy Milone - Starter - A's
Tommy Milone presents more than a couple of interesting contrasts to Henderson Alvarez. Those contrasts are made even more interesting by the premise that they project to product very similar results this season.
Tommy's pitching arsenal and approach are quite different from what we've come to expect from pitching prospects. His velocity generally tops out in the high-80s with an occasional chin over 90 and 91. As we discussed with Henderson, if you aren't going to strike out a lot of batters you have to put the ball on the ground, keep the ball in the ballpark, and limit your walks.
Tommy does only one of these things particularly well, ok two. He doesn't give up a ton of HRs, despite a history of borderline-to-decent GB%, but he is absolutely loathed to walk a hitter, offering less than a walk and a half/9 in over 300 IP between AA, AAA, and majors in the last two years.
But the real story here is that despite his lack of velocity Tommy strikes hitters out. He fanned 9.4/9 in AAA last year, with a 155 Ks which were second most in his league, along with a very healthy 12.1 SwStr%. He also fanned 8.8/9 in AA in 2010. Not bad for a guy who throws in the 80s.
The first question this begs is whether that will translate to the majors. So far the results aren't encouraging. Last year in 26 NL IP Tommy fanned just 5.2/9 with his SwStr% dropping to 7.8%. This year he went 8 IP in his start, 8 shutout innings mind you, without a fanning a hitter with just a 3.2 SwStr% and a 25% chase rate. Those samples are too small to draw any lasting conclusions, but finding the answer to this question is key to projecting Tommy's ceiling.
Milone works off his excellent, potentially plus change up, and follows with a his fastball, a lazy cutter, and a so-far borderline curve. What makes it all work is his yard sale delivery which hitters have to decipher, and his ability to hit his spots. Tommy is a great study in the relative importance of velocity and location. Of course turning that into a zero sum argument is self-defeating. Neither velocity nor location alone makes for an effective pitcher in the majors.
The first question that discussion begs, if you are a fantasy owner, is where do you want to bet your assets, velocity or location? I personally like healthy velocity, especially in the AL. Of course if it doesn't cost you much in the way of assets and he doesn't play a major role on your roster, Milone may be able to return some value.
Many project that Tommy will provide league-average ERA and WHIP and may even come in a tick or two lower. I think that's possible. I just don't want to bet too much on that possibility, especially if his K/9 drops significantly at the MLB. That column will be a good bell weather. If it drops below 7 he projects to be a below average starter option. If it drops below 6 he's potentially toxic, especially in non-favorable match ups.
Play the matchups well and Tommy can be a contributor if his K rate holds, but you can't blindly throw him in your lineup every week.
Long Term Fantasy Grade - CYR Lvl IP ERA WHIP K9 BB9 HR9 OBA BABIP LOB% 09 A+ 151.1 2.91 1.19 6.3 2.1 0.5 .253 .297 74.3 10 AA 158.0 3.02 1.17 8.8 1.3 0.6 .260 .332 75.4 11 AAA 148.1 3.22 1.03 9.4 1.0 0.6 .240 .315 70.0 11 MLB 26.0 3.81 1.23 5.2 1.4 0.7 .269 .299 73.7
Zack Cozart - SS - Reds
26-year-old Zack Cozart provided a spark for the Reds' offense last year after his July recall, hitting .324 in 37 ABs with a pair of HRs, and many feel that he looks like a decent source of power and a good source of speed in 2012, from a good slot in the lineup.
The problem is that his 2011 minor league campaign has a couple of soft spots in his line. The first of which is the fact that 2011 was a statistical outlier in a pretty substantial set of pro data. His .310 BA was 55 points higher than his AAA average in 2010 and 48 points higher than his AA average in 2009. He also was helped by a .348 BHIP. While his contact rates were good his BB rates at those two levels were sub-par.
That showed up in the major as well as Zack didn't earned walk in his first 37 ABs (he had 2 in his first 28 ABs this year). Additionally Zack's .324 BA had the tailwind of a .345 BHIP.
In the minors he stole 30 bases in AAA in 2010 (553 ABs) and had 9 in at the time of his 2011 promotion in 323 ABs. Zack is not a top-shelf speed guy but he knows what he's doing on the bases. He isn't likely to approach anywhere near 30 SBs in the majors but he'd contribute double figures in a full season perhaps mid-teens
I don't see Zack as a hitter who can threaten .300 very seriously, and in stretches he'll be a liability in that column (unless he ups his walk walk he'll also be an issue in the OBP column if your league scores it), but with enough PT, which he appears to be in line for this year, he could produce something close to a 12/15, and that's not bad at SS. and really not bad at all in an MI slot, especially in NL-only leagues.
It's all about where he's slotted for you. If he's your starting SS you are playing catchup in most leagues, but he's a solid MI option.
Long Term Fantasy Grade - C+YR Lvl AB AVG ISO HR SB BB% K% BABIP 09 AA 462 .262 .136 10 10 11.6 16.1 .301 10 AAA 553 .255 .161 17 30 6.6 17.5 .286 11 AAA 323 .310 .158 7 9 6.6 14.6 .348 11 MLB 37 .324 .162 2 0 0.0 15.8 .345
Liam Hendricks - Starting Pitcher - Twins
Liam Hendricks could be the main beneficiary of the Scott Baker's misfortune. Liam pitched well this spring (3-1, 2.84) before falling to food poisoning which lost him his first start of the season. Hendrick is currently scheduled to start today for the Twins. He is expected to survive the activation of Jason Marquis, a move that will send Anthony Swarzak back to the bullpen.
Liam is a typical product of the Twins' pitcher assembly line. He throws the standard fastball, slider, change, curve combo, averaging just about 90 mph, and about a 20% mix of sliders, leaving about 20% split between the curve and change. His control skills are excellent and and his command is improving. He coaxed an impressive chase rate of 35.3% last year in 23.1 IP for the Twins.
Last year's AAA ERA of 4.56 in 49.1 IP should give some pause but he suffered with an very unfavorable 54.4 LOB% so we can weight that accordingly. He was typically stingy with his walks, and opponents hit just .268 off of him, and he deserved better from his 1.11 WHIP in his first AAA tour.
Like many young starters the question is whether he can strike out 7/9. Liam limits his walks, generally keeps the ball in the park (although that was an issue in his short stint with the Twins), and throws a healthy amount of GBs, so he can be a contributor at 6/9 and above. If he can get to 7/9 however he can generate some value, especially in select matchups.
I think his K/9 falls closer to 6/9 than 7 which means he settles in at the very back end of the rotation, both for the Twins and for owners in deep leagues, more of a match up play or streamer than a weekly starter.
Long Term Fantasy Grade - C-YR Lvl IP ERA WHIP K9 BB9 HR9 OBA BABIP LOB% 09 A 66.2 3.51 1.32 8.4 2.0 0.4 .273 .347 65.3 10 A 34.0 1.32 0.59 10.3 1.1 0.0 .136 .203 71.4 10 A+ 74.2 1.93 0.95 8.0 1.0 0.2 .223 .284 75.1 11 AA 90.0 2.70 1.14 8.1 1.8 0.5 .247 .310 76.8 11 AAA 49.1 4.56 1.11 5.5 0.6 0.0 .268 .317 54.4 11 MLB 23.1 6.17 1.50 6.2 2.3 1.2 .309 .347 61.7
