Brent Lillibridge - This is definitely for deep leagues only, but Brent Lillibridge is exactly the type of player that can give a roster the necessary flexibility to withstand the attrition of a long year. Depending on your roster rules, Lillibridge could be eligible everywhere but catcher for you, and the fact that he reached double-digits in both HRs and SBs despite only 216 PAs last season gives some hope that at age 28 he might even be able to expand his role a bit here in 2012.
Matt Thornton - I do agree with the majority in that Matt Thornton is likely to start the season as the White Sox closer, but for a number of reasons I am completely convinced that he won't last the season there. His prior experiences in the role haven't been all that encouraging (he has more blown saves than saves in every year but one), and there is much more competition in that bullpen for potential saves (without a clear hierarchy) than in most. Performance-wise, Thornton is coming off a year with a career-worst contact rate, sizable drop in swinging strike%, and back-to-back years with declining LD rates and BB rates. Thornton isn't likely to suddenly become extremely hittable, but with Addison Reed, Jesse Crain, and spring sensation Hector Santiago waiting in the wings, I think he might be a better sign-and-trade candidate this spring than anything.
Chris Parmelee - It looks like Justin Morneau will be the primary DH this season for the Twins, leaving Chris Parmelee as the Opening Day 1B. Like many prospects, Parmelee's performance has become lackluster above A-ball, although at just 24 one could hold out hope for a bit more power to come. I think he's won this job based on 141 ABs last fall and this spring (in which he hit 9 homers, mind you), and I don't feel that it's likely he'll keep the job all year long, but he could provide a bit of production early on this year as a late-round selection in deeper formats.
Liam Hendriks - Hendriks is going to be in the middle of the Twins rotation to start the year, although with Scott Baker and Jason Marquis likely to come off the DL before too long his continued presence there will be performance-dependent. Hendriks is a pretty typical young Twin starter: right-handed, average-to-below velocity, solid control, decent GB rates, middling to poor K rates. The overall package is that of a #4-#5 starter in MLB, with the upside of a #3. For fantasy purposes, he's likely not a viable option in standard mixed leagues yet, and perhaps he could be a spot starter in the deepest of formats at best.
Kyle Seager - It's still up in the air how much PT Seager will get this year, but the Carp injury has to help his short-term prospects to be sure. It still looks like Chone Figgins will be playing 3B at least as much as Seager, but Seager's age (24) and decent speed/power numbers (8-12 likely in both categories) make him a better option at this point in their respective careers. Seager only merits a look in deeper leagues at this point, however.
Hisashi Iwakuma - Hisashi Iwakuma hasn't had his normal velocity this spring and the results have been middling, but I still think he deserves a bit more press than he's been getting. The combination of his favorable home park and solid control make him a reasonable, albeit risky, back-end option in most formats as far as I can tell. I'm pretty leery of the international signings that come right to the majors for the most part, so I'd have a short leash, but I do think that Iwakuma could give you better value than many bargain basement choices.
Mark Melancon - With talk of surgery looming for Andrew Bailey (with "unknown" as the return time) and with other injuries (Beckett) and questionable track records (Bard, Doubront) plaguing the rotation, I'd look to Mark Melancon as much as or more than I'd look to Alfredo Aceves as a possible replacement for the Sox going forward. Melancon was adequate as a closer for part of last year, and Aceves has made no secret of his desire to be in the rotation. Aceves may very well get the first few save chances, although that's certainly not set in stone, but if Bailey is out for an extended period my money would be on Melancon being the more valuable interim closer.
Sean Marshall - Lou liked Sean Marshall the other day as the best option for saves in the Red bullpen, and apparently that was the tipping point for Dusty Baker as he announced yesterday that Marshall will be the primary closer for the club coming out of spring training. Aroldis Chapman is lurking in the wings down there, as Baker has also announced that he will be in the bullpen to start the year (and Homer Bailey in the rotation), but I think Marshall has enough going for him to be able to hang onto the role going forward. Big value jump here for Marshall.
Tyler Pastornicky - the SS job for the Braves, but I think the best case for his fantasy prospects is a solid AVG and some SBs. Pastornicky has shown little power in the minors (.096 ISO through over 1500 ABs), but he did exhibit a sizable jump in contact rate last season at two levels, and he's swiped at least 27 bags a year in each of his four pro seasons. The steals may give him value in all roto formats, but those in head-to-head leagues will likely want to leave him be in all but the deepest of formats.
Jake Arrieta - Jake Arrieta will be the default lead man in a pretty sad Oriole rotation in 2012, but there are some glimmers of hope in Arrieta's 2011 line. Through Memorial Day last year Arrieta was fanning just under a man per nine, and his minor league track record was somewhere between good and excellent. A league average HR/FB rate would have left him with an FIPERA of around 4.50, which with double-digit wins in only 22 starts and almost a K per inning....well, you see where an optimistic sort would be looking at Arrieta as a sleeper. I'm not necessarily that positive about things, but I think he clearly merits a reserve slot on potential alone.
Felix Doubront - Doubront will be in the Red Sox rotation to start the year, and as a lefty with good velocity, four pitches, and a solid team behind him you might be tempted. I'd advise against, as the combination of a difficult schedule and consistently poor control will likely have Doubront back in the bullpen or AAA before very long.
I don't think there is any doubt that Morrow has the stuff to be an elite pitcher, and for those frightened off by two straight years of poor strand rates...this guy was a closer for a while in Seattle. I'm pretty sure he can pitch from the stretch. Add my voice to those clamoring for a breakout this year....the big strides in control last season have me optimistic.
Josh Collmenter - Collmenter is a two-pitch pitcher without even average velocity that somehow stymied the league last year over 24 starts. I have virtually zero faith that this will continue, and despite the fact that he's listed as the 3rd starter for Arizona I feel that he's most vulnerable to losing his roster spot once the kids are ready. I don't expect Collmenter to be worth a roster spot in most formats this season.
Jordan Zimmermann - Zimmermann seems a tad underrated to me in most venues, as the K rate dropped last year despite increases in chase% and swinging strike%, the control improvements were huge, the surrounding team is better, and the innings cap on him is either increased or non-existent depending on whom you ask. I'm very bullish here.
Chipper Jones - I can't help but think that Chipper, who will start the year on the DL but will likely be ready for the home opener in mid-April, has one more solid year in him as he won't have the distraction of a questionable 2013 return in front of him. Jones hit very well down the stretch last year, and with the NL taking a bit hit offensively by losing two of their top five bats in the offseason, I have to think Chipper remains a starter candidate in most formats.
Danny Duffy - Duffy did indeed win a rotation spot out of spring training, and while last year's control issues do suggest that the growing pains will be in full force still, his minor league track record and stuff still portend solid performance. I would happy to have him as a reserve in most formats as a potential breakout candidate.
Brandon Morrow -
