Your last Preseason Prep for 2012. Good luck to all and enjoy Opening Day tomorrow.
Oakland A's
Projecting Yoenis: Cespedes displayed some impressive power in the Japan series against the Mariners. In the first game, he took a strong curveball from Felix Hernandez the other way for a double, and hit a two run home run to give the A's a victory in the second game. Additionally, we saw that his plate discipline might hold Cespedes back in his rookie season. He struck out in three of his seven plate appearances while chasing 40 percent of pitches out of the strike zone. I am confident that he will get to the 20 home run mark on his talent alone, but if he can make adjustments early in the season, he might surpass 25. Speed on the base paths was not apart of his game last week, but his ability to reach double-digits stolen bases makes him a better bet than some established players like Nick Swisher. Once he moves up in the lineup, which is only a matter of time, he should get more RBI opportunities.
Tyson Ross and Graham Godfrey Favorites For Last Two Rotation Spots:
Godfrey threw five scoreless innings and many of the beat writers surrounding the club believe it was enough to earn him the fourth spot in the A's rotation. Godfrey appeared in five games for the A's last September making four starts. He finished with 25 major league innings, a 3.96 ERA, a 4.68 K/9 and a walk rate of 1.80 BB/9. Godfrey does not possess strikeout stuff and pitching to contact with his 90 mph fastball and mixing in his sldier, curveball and change-up. I would stay away from Godfrey in most leagues. I think his 2012 walk rate will be closer his career minor league walk rate of 3.0 BB/9 and not the small sample size of his 2011 stint. Pitching in Oakland will certainly help him, but I am not expecting an ERA lower than 4.50 along with a strikeout rate of 5.50 K/9. I would have loved to see Jarrod Parker take this spot, but Parker looks like he will start the season in triple-A.
Ross has been confirmed for the final spot in the rotation according to the team's official website, and he would be a better option than Godfrey for any owners involved in a deep or AL-only league. Ross had his 2011 season interrupted because of injury after having a 2.75 ERA in 36 innings, and he struggled mightily in his return in triple-A. Ross features a 91-94 mph, a very good slider and a change-up. The slider makes him tough on right-handed hitters (2.75 FIP and xFIP against RHB in 2011), though there are questions about his command as he has had walk rate of 3.9 BB/9 for his pro career. His ability to generate groundballs will serve him well, and he I am projecting him to finish with a 4.20-4.35 ERA along with a strikeout rate of 6.5 K/9. If both Godfrey and Ross struggle, expect Parker to get his opportunity, mostly at the expense of Godrey.
New York Mets
Can Jon Niese Finally Out Perform DIPS?
I have seen Niese mentioned frequently as a breakout candidate for 2012 due in most part because he his FIP (3.36) and xFIP (3.28) significantly outperformed his ERA (4.40) last season. Additionally, Niese improved his strikeout rate, walk rate and ground ball from 2010 to 2011. His ERA was inflated in due part to a below average strand rate (67 percent) and a high BABIP (.333). However, it is becoming a noticeable trend that Niese's strand rate and BABIP are respectively below and above the league average. In 370.2 career major league innings, Niese has a .329 BABIP and a 68.9 percent strand rate. The fact is hitters have a 20.6 percent line drive rate during his career, and owners should prepare for more of the same in 2012. While it is certainly possible that those numbers will improve in 2012, they should then be considered outliers and not so much of an indication of improvement. Niese is a worthwhile option in 14 team and above leagues, but he is nothing more than a solid back end of the rotation type of pitcher.
Is a Left-Field Platoon a Possibility for Bay?
The New York Post reported a few days ago that if Bay struggles through the month of May that there is a real possibility the organization would platoon Bay with another outfielder. It really does not make much sense for the club to take Bay's job away from him considering there is no obvious replacement. This sounds like the kind of talk we heard earlier from the unnamed executives in the organization about the possible release of Mike Pelfrey before the start of the season. We are projecting Bay to bounce back from his disastrous 2011 campaign. Bay's strikeout rate remained steady despite a 2 percent drop in his swinging strike rate, and Bay's .295 BABIP last season was 30 points below his career rate. In addition, the new dimensions in CitiField should help his power numbers. Because of his ability to steal 10-13 bases, Bay is just as valuable as Nick Markaskis and Josh Willingham and at a cheaper price.
Washington Nationals
Lidge Starts Season as Closer: With Drew Storen beginning the season on the disabled list because of inflammation in his elbow, Lidge will begin the season as the Nationals number one option in the ninth inning. While Tyler Clippard is the team's second best reliever behind Storen, Davey Johnson fell into the old veteran experience trap with Storen on the shelf. Lidge should be able to hold his own during April as he should provide saves with an ERA in the mid 3's along with a strikeout rate higher than 9.00 K/9. He will feature his slider more than ever now, as his fastball does not average more than 89 mph any more. The high percentage of sliders helps to explain his high walk rate from last season, and I would be very surprised if it is lower than 4.50 BB/9 this season. Storen should be back by the end of the month, but Lidge will serve as an admirable fill in for the month and Storen owners should not miss a beat.
Surprise Pick: Ross Detwiler Expected to be Named Fifth Starter
In a stunning move, the Washington Post reported on Tuesday that the Nationals are expected to option John Lannan to triple-A and name Ross Detwiler the fifth starter. Considering Lannan is expected to collect $5 million this season, the move is a shock. I fully expect Lannan to be dealt in the immediate future, but Detwiler definitely holds more value in those deep and NL-only leagues where Lannan is owned. Detwiler possess a fastball that averages a little more than 92 mph and compliments it with a strong change-up and a curveball. His overall stuff should give him more strikeouts than Lannan, but his control is only slightly better (career best 2.73 BB/9 in 2011). He won't be able to repeat his 3.00 ERA from last season as his BABIP (.273 in 2011) and strand rate (78.7 percent in 2011) are not likely to be as forgivable in 2012. I project him to have an ERA between 4.10 and 4.25, which should be good enough to hold on to the rotation spot once Wang returns from the disabled list.
Kyle Farnsworth (TB-RP)- Kyle Farnsworth is expected to start the season on the disabled list because of soreness in his elbow. MRI results on his right elbow, which gave him trouble last season, are due back tomorrow. He will probably be out for the month of April, and some believe that it might require surgery. Maddon will probably not name a closer for April, and one can expect Fernando Rodney, Joel Peralta and JP Howell to all get some save opportunities. The good news is that Farnsworth was hitting 95 mph with his fastball on Saturday, his last appearance, but this injury does not bode well for any Farnsworth owners. With no clear-cut successor, it may be tricky to pick up those lost saves. However, Joe Maddon went to Joel Peralta when Farnsworth as hurt last season, and he should be your first option.
Ubaldo Jimenez (CLE-SP)- Jimenez will appeal the five-game suspension that was given to him by the commissioner's office after hitting Troy Tulowitziki in Sunday's spring training game against the Rockies. The move allows Jimenez to make his scheduled start on Saturday against the Blue Jays, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him drop the suspension soon after without really missing a start. The Indians have plenty of off days to juggle the rotation to accommodate the suspension. He has looked terrible this spring in terms of command, and scouts have noticed that he has lost some velocity since last season, which saw a 3 mph decrease in his average fastball. With that said, there should been an improvement over last season's 4.68 ERA since his strand rate is bound to improve. While one start does not mean much in the grand scheme of the season, Saturday might be a good indicator of how 2012 will go for Jimenez.
Brandon Belt (SFG- 1B/OF)- It seems as if Bruce Bochy is leaning to start Brandon Belt at first base on opening day and putting Aubrey Huff in left field. While starting Huff in the outfield is bad news for Giants, this is the best news Belt has received in terms of playing time since he made the club out of spring training last season. Belt displayed impressive power numbers in limited time last season (15.8 percent HR/FB ratio), and I personally think he was affected by the limited playing time he received in the majors along with playing in the outfield for the first time. Belt's strikeout rate needs to decrease from 27.3 percent if he is going to hit above .260. I expect that rate to also drop by 5 or so points. His swinging strike rate of 10.5 percent was high, but it does not correlate with a 27.3 percent strikeout rate.
Ivan Nova (NYY-SP)- The Mets rocked Nova on Wednesday afternoon to the tune of five runs on eight hits and two walks in 2.2 innings pitched. I don't think Nova was being hyperbolic when he said it was one of the worst pitching days of his life, as it was the worst performance I remember ever seeing from him. He could not keep his fastball below the belt, and he couldn't get his slider or change-up over for strikes. Nova's greatest strength is his ability to keep the ball on the ground, so Wednesday's start could be a little bit troubling. I think this is more a case of mechanics just being out of whack for one game. This should serve as a reminder that it is unlikely that Nova will repeat his 2011 numbers. His walk rate needs to improve, and I think his BABIP is likely to settle in the .290-.300 range rather than .283. I still expect him to finish with a 4.10 to 4.25.
Ian Stewart (3B-CHC)- Stewart is one of the players I am keeping a close eye on once the season starts after an appalling 2011 campaign. I am still trying to figure out Stewart's season because I can understand why his batting average dropped (11.6 percent line drive rate), but I was shocked by his in ability to hit a home run. His fly ball rate was a career high. One of those should have been able to leave Coors Field, and his infield fly ball rate was along his career rate. In any case, I expect Stewart to be the feast or famine type of player he was with the Rockies from 2008-2010. I think our projections for him a little bit low since I think he will receive more playing time than our software is currently projecting. I like his chances to rebound, as I don't think he will be affected by not playing in Colorado anymore. His splits are pretty even with a .767 OPS at home for his career, and a .737 OPS on the road.
Aroldis Chapman (CIN-RP)- Much to my chagrin, Dusty Baker as decided to move Chapman back to the bullpen to start the season as a late-inning reliever, ensuring that the 2012 season will be another one where Chapman does not build up enough arm strength to make him a consistent starter in the near future. This news probably increases his fantasy value right now, but it certainly hurts what could have been his value next month if he was pitching well in triple-A and someone in the rotation sustained an injury. Marshall has been named the Reds closer with Ryan Madson on the shelf for the season. If something happens to Marshall, Chapman will be first in line, but I would be surprised if Marshall pitched poorly enough to get him removed from the role. Chapman will probably be sent down within a month to get stretched out once again, but it is extremely frustrating to see the Reds continue to not stick with a plan.
Delmon Young (DET-LF)- Young has the butt of a lot of jokes over the last few seasons because of his lack of power and his defense. However, 2012 might be his best situation yet and his placement in the lineup (fifth behind Cabrera and Fielder) alone gives him a certain advantage in terms of RBI. Young's numbers improved greatly once he was traded to Detroit, as Detroit is a friendlier park for right-handed hitters than Minnesota. All of Young's batted ball data remained steady when he was traded, except for his HR/FB ratio, which increased from 4.5 percent with the Twins to 16.5 percent with the Tigers. With Fielder and Cabrera hitting in front of him, 90 RBI almost seems like a lock if he can stay healthy and we are thinking he can set a career high in home runs this season since he is hitting his prime.
