Max Scherzer SP (DET) - Scherzer 's attempt to rebound from a disappointing 2011 season got off to a rocky start. Scherzer did not make it out of the 3rd inning against the Red Sox. He gave up 7 ER off of 8 hits and 2 walks while striking out 3. Despite the tough start, there's a good chance Scherzer improves upon his 2011 season. Last year Scherzer saw his strikeout rate dip from 8.46 to 8.03 despite improving his chase rate against, first strike rate and swinging strike rate - all of which suggest an improvement in K rate, not a decline. Also, Scherzer had a BABIP and HR/FB% that were slightly elevated in comparison to his career marks. Look for Scherzer to get past the poor first start and post a 2012 season that is much closer statistically to his 2010 than his 2011.
Carlos Santana C (CHC) - Santana ripped 2 homers on his birthday yesterday. In 2011 Santana hit 27 homers which was second only to Mike Napoli. Santana's strong EYE (.73) and amazing plate discipline (18.2% chase rate) along with him entering his peak power years (turned 26 yesterday) bode well for him being amongst the top home run hitters of all catchers once again. The EYE, as well as a low swinging strike rate (7.1%) for someone with his pop, also indicates that Santana is a better average hitter than his .239 mark from last season would suggest. In fact, Santana had an unfortunate .192 singles average last season that should definitely be on the rise this year. Look for him to hit closer to the .270-.280 range.
Jeremy Hellickson SP (TB) - After beating up on Hellickson all pre-season he goes out and shuts out the Yankees for 8 and 2/3rds innings in his 2012 debut. I will spare my audience from listening to me list Hellickson's fortunate luck stats from 2011, but I will make note that the warning signs I have been alluding to with Hellickson were still present. He only managed to strike out 4 of the 33 batters he faced (12.12%); the league average K% in 2011 was 18.6%. Hellickson also walked 12.12% of the batters he faced; the league average in 2011 was 8.1%. Hellickson keeps defying the odds, and I for one don't see his success continuing without some serious improvement in skills. Only time will tell.
Alex Avila C (DET) - Avila blasted a walk off 2-run homer in the bottom of the 11th inning. It was Avila's second homer in as many days. Avila is off to a hot start and trying to show that his breakout 2011 campaign was no fluke. Avila will experience a dip in batting average for sure; his .292 singles average is not repeatable for a hitter of his mold. However, the rest of Avila's fantasy stats (RS, RBI, HR) should remain constant as his power appears to be for real. Avila posted a .211 ISO last year so there were plenty of extra base hits. He posted an EYE of .56 which is decent for a power hitter, and his overall patience was very impressive (13.2 BB%, 24.8% chase rate). Considering Avila's age (25), plate discipline and the types of balls he puts into play (21.7 LD%, 40.5 FB%) he is a pretty safe bet to repeat his power numbers.
Adrian Gonzalez 1B (BOS) - Gonzalez went 2-6 yesterday with 2 RBI's, 2 RS and a homer. Gonzalez's average should dip this season as he posted a BABIP of .380 in 2011 which was well above his career mark of .323 and his previous career high of .340. However, his overall fantasy value won't drop too much in my eyes; while the average dips the power should spike. Gonzalez's FB% last season was 32.1% (the lowest of his career since playing full time), and his HR/FB% of 16.4% was slightly less than his career mark of 17%. Twice Gonzalez has posted HR/FB rates in the 20's and that was when Petco was his home park. With a rise in both FB% and HR/FB% I am counting on Gonzalez to be back over 30 homers this year and to finish around the 35 mark.
