Kyle Drabek SP (TOR) - I am a little bit more optimistic about Drabek than my co-analyst Joe Hettler. Drabek was a disaster last year, but his status as a former top prospect and reports in Spring Training of much improved control led him to be a last round flier for me in a couple of 30-round 15 team drafts I took part in. Drabek certainly looked much improved last night as he did not issue a walk until the 6th inning. Drabek's strike % the first five innings was solid: 75/51.85/54.55/63.64/73.33. Drabek had a good two seamer working and complemented that with a straight 4 seam fastball. However, it wasn't all roses. We can't dismiss the 6th inning in which Drabek walked 3 batters and threw only 36.84% strikes. He also only generated 4 swinging strikes on the game (all with his 4 seam fastball), which does not bode well in the AL East or for his chances of posting a league average K rate. This was a start where it was definitely encouraging to see an improved Kyle Drabek, but at the same time we were reminded he still has a long way to go. I like him as a spot start option with some upside in 15 team leagues, but there is no reason to roster him in any league that is shallower.
Derek Jeter SS (NYY) - Jeter took Wei-Yin Chen deep in his first at bat yesterday. Jeter hit just 6 homeruns all of last season, and I think he struggles to reach 10 again this year despite getting an early one under his belt. Jeter is getting older which means a DL stint is more likely, which hurts his chances. Also, his power has been pretty sapped as evidenced by a .100 and .092 ISO the past 2 seasons as well as HR/FB%'s of 9.9 and 7.7. Jeter's career ISO is .136 and HR/FB% is 12.3. On top of having a low HR/FB% Jeter has trouble getting the ball in the air period. He has GB%'s of 65.7 and 62.4 the past 2 seasons which are much higher than his career mark of 57.5%. Entering play yesterday he had a 68.8 GB%. The only things Jeter has going for him right now are a high contact rate (which gives him a shot at a decent average) and the fact that he leads off for one of the best offenses in the game.
Rick Porcello SP (DET) - Porcello pitched pretty well in his 2012 debut, allowing just 2 ER over 7 IP off of 7 hits. He struck out 4 and walked just 1. I seem to write this every year: if Porcello could find a way to miss more bats he could be a viable fantasy SP given his 6.2 BB% and 51.9 GB% for his career. However, Porcello's career K% of 13.3% is 5.3 percentage points below the 2011 league average. It is tough to survive without missing more bats than that. In yesterday's game Porcello posted a 14.29 K%, so pretty much in line with what we would expect. Did he generate more swing and misses though in general, which could be a sign of an improved K rate moving forward? Well, on 91 pitches Porcello got 10 swinging strikes - good for 10.98%. That is certainly a good sign considering Porcello's career swinging strike rate is 6.4% and league average was 8.6% in 2011. It is just one start, but if I see another start or two out of Porcello with an elevated swinging strike rate I'll take a chance on him as scouts have always felt he has had the raw stuff to miss more bats than he has shown thus far in his career.
Daniel Bard SP (BOS) - Bard owners have to be happy with his first ever start despite some poor superficial stats (Loss, 5 ER, 8 hits in 5 IP). Bard struck out 6 batters compared to just 1 walk and posted a very impressive 64.7 GB%. He was pretty unlucky in the game, posting a .474 BABIP despite giving up just one extra base hit. Bard also stranded just 44.4% of base runners despite a high K rate on the day. The peripherals were strong for Bard in his opening appearance, and if he pitches like this consistently he will put up a lot of quality starts with solid ratios.
Edwin Encarnacion DH (TOR) - Encarnacion homered and stole 2 bases last night. I was high on Encarnacion following last season as I saw he had improved his contact rate for the second straight season while posting a solid .56 EYE. On top of that he had a FB + LD% of 63.6% which bodes well for a power hitter; I felt that his low HR/FB% of 9.4 (12.8/12.4/15.1 previous 3 seasons) masked some underlying power potential. During the offseason I liked Encarnacion even more as I could sense growing optimism from the Jays about him from comments they made and having him learn the outfield in order to keep his bat in the lineup all the time. He has been in the lineup every day this season and even hit cleanup when an opposing left hander started. Fast forward to the present and Encarnacion is coming off of a 2 steal performance. The Jays ran a lot last year, and Edwin stole 8 bases after stealing no more than 2 in a season since 2007. He could steal 10-15 this season which would help solidify his fantasy value and increase his chances of a breakout campaign, which I think will occur.
