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Consistency Factor gives us an indication of a batter's quality games or quality weekly output. The premise: established players who do not produce quality output on a consistent basis are a risk to achieve similar production in the future.
Essentially we want players who produce consistently rather than in sporadic episodes. The reasoning is a derivative of the laws of probability, consistency is paramount to lowering our risk...the more observations the better.
Below is a list of the worst hitters in terms of weekly consistency in 2011 (based on 375 ABs). The column below, Weekly 2011, is a recording of each player's 2011 quality weeks (out of a max possible 26 weekly observations). Also included is their 3 year average consistency percentage (2-3 Yr %) which is adjusted for playing time factors.
As you can see, many of 2011's inconsistent players have a history of inconsistency (2-3 yr %). This reinforces one of the tenets of the original premise: Inconsistent players usually stay inconsistent on a yearly basis. Thus the players that show a 3YR history below 40% are at risk to post consistent yearly results.
We know what to expect from Ryan Theriot on a year to year basis: lack luster fantasy output. However there are players who have clearly begun to show the effects of age. Players like Vladimir Guerrero, Hideki Matsui, Marlon Byrd, Kosuke Fukudome, Ryan Ludwick, Adam Dunn, Vernon Wells are clearly showing the trend line associated with advancing age. You'll still see brilliance on certain days, possibly weeks at a time, but the time between these outbreaks gets longer with age. If you play in a weekly Head to Head league these are the type of players that you will need to avoid in your draft.
An example of some of the players we do expect to increase production this year, based on their youth and talent level include: David Wright, Michael Morse, Jason Heyward, Colby Rasmus, and Omar Infante.
When considering Consistency Factor both injury and playing time risks are an additional factor to consider when evaluating players. As you thumb through the Consistency Factor indicator on the Player Pages within the windows software, you'll get a better feel on which players are a safer play for you on draft day....this is especially relevant if you play in weekly head to head league.
I do want to stress that 1st and 2nd year players should be given leeway, as they are just getting their feet wet and do have the potential to become consistent hitters. In the next segment of this series, we'll cover the youth movement (specifically those who have shown to be remarkably consistent early on.) A factor that bodes remarkably well for those looking to find un-touted value come draft day.
For those who are interested in consistency factor (register), it's conveniently listed as a sort-able column as well on the projections screen (Select Columns WC for Weekly Consistency and DC for Daily Consistency) in the draft software.
