Indians Outfield News: Bounce Back Year For Coo Coo Ca-Choo? - The 2011 season was forgettable for the Tribe's Shin-Soo Choo. An early-season DUI and injuries plagued the right fielder throughout the season and he finished with just 358 plate appearances, batting .259/.344/.390 with eight HRs, 12 steals and 36 RBI. Fantasy owners had expected much more after seeing Choo post at least 20 HRs, 20 steals, 80 runs, 85 RBI and a .300 BA during the 2009 and 2010 campaigns. Choo's walk and strikeout rates were basically in line with his past seasons but his ISO dropped by about 60 points while his HR/FB rate also fell to a career-low 10%. Choo openly admitted that the embarrassment he felt from getting the DUI affected him most of the season and the stats seem to mirror that statement. Choo didn't look like himself until August when he batted .338 with three HRs in 51 plate appearances. Considering Choo's consistency prior to 2011, I like him to bounce back in 2012 and once again provide 20 HRs and 20 steals to go along with 80 runs and 80 RBI. He's a minor sleeper heading into auctions and drafts.
Indians Position Battle: Third Base - It's Supermannahan Time - In choosing a starting third baseman, the Indians had two very different options. Lonnie Chisenhall is younger (by nine years), has higher upside and is projected to be a strong bat with average defensive prowess. On the other hand, Jack Hannahan is 32 and owns a career .231/.317/.358 slash line but also played excellent defense in 2011. Welp, the decision was made earlier this week and it appears the Tribe values defense over offensive upside as they chose Hannahan as the starter while shipping Chisenhall to AAA. You really can't blame the Tribe in making this decision. Chisenhall had a truly horrible spring and Hannahan will help out the starting rotation's ground ball prowess.
For fantasy purposes, it's hard to get behind either of these guys. In his first major league action last season, Chisenhall batted .255/.284/.415 in 223 plate appearances but also showed little patience in recording a 3% walk rate against a 22% strikeout rate. Meanwhile, Hannahan hit just .250/.331/.388 in 366 plate appearances and posted an OPS under .665 in four of the six months of the season. I can't see Hannahan being more than a bench player in deep AL-only leagues this year while Chisenhall has a bit more upside and could be a backup in deep mixed leagues if he can overcome Hannahan at some point and regain the starting job while also making strides with his plate patience.
Cardinals Middle Infield News, Part One: Rafael Furcal Hasn't Retired Yet? - Rafael Furcal is about to embark on his 13th major league season but is coming off a disappointing 2011 campaign where he posted a career-low .646 OPS in 369 plate appearances. At 34, Furcal is slowing down and it's questionable whether he'll have much value for the Cardinals or fantasy teams in 2012. For Furcal to be productive, he needs to change the breakdown of his balls in play. He hit 7% more grounders in 2011 compared to 2010 and also owned an 18.2% line drive rate - his lowest mark since 2005. Thanks to more grounders and fewer liners, Furcal's BABIP plummeted to .240, which is 73 points below his career average and nearly 100 points below his 2010 mark. On the bright side, Furcal has maintained a solid BB/K rate and if he can get 500 plate appearances, he could pile up enough runs and steals to be worth a bench spot in deep mixed and NL-only leagues. That said, my expectations are pretty low for the former Brave and Dodger. It just seems like too many things need to break right for him and he's at an age where his skills are likely in rapid decline.
Cardinals Middle Infield News, Part Two: Second Base - Descalso, Greene or Schumaker? - The Cardinals' second base job is a two-man race between Daniel Descalso and Tyler Greene while the third option, Skip Schumaker, is out at least a month with a torn oblique. Descalso owns a .753 minor league OPS and played on a semi-regular basis in 2011 with the Cardinals, finishing the season with a .687 OPS, one HR and 28 RBI. He showed OK plate patience with a 9% walk rate but hit an empty .264. On the other side, Greene has accumulated about the same number of late appearances in the past three seasons as Descalso did in 2011 and has posted a .621 OPS to go along with five HRs and 28 RBI. So, yeah, this isn't the most exciting spring competition in the majors. That said, what's intriguing about Greene is his minor league power numbers. He's hit 85 HRs and tallied a .795 OPS, including a 1.001 mark in 2011 with Memphis in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Unfortunately for Greene, none of that success has translated to major league production. The good news for these two players is that whoever doesn't win the starting job will likely backup and potentially replace Rafael Furcal when he inevitably gets injured in late April. Expect Greene to be the starter to begin the season with both getting playing time and neither being more than a backup in deeper NL-only leagues.
Astros Outfield News: Your Time Is Now, Jordan Schafer - When the Astros shipped Jason Bourgeois to the Royals, Jordan Schafer all but secured the starting centerfield position for 2012. Schafer doesn't excite me too much but because he used to be a top-30 prospect (according to Baseball America) and is still just 25, I'm certainly going to keep an eye on his early-season progress. Last season, Schafer recorded 338 plate appearances and showed decent patience with an 8% walk rate while stealing 22 bases in 26 attempts. That's the good news. The bad news is that Schafer hit a measly .242/.309/.315 to go along with all of 13 RBI. He also struck out in 21% of his ABs which is far too high for a guy with a .073 ISO. He's actually always struggled with making contact as evidenced by his 22% minor league whiff rate. Schafer's primary value this season will be as a cheap source of steals. The rest of his numbers are likely to be pretty ugly so if you do take Schafer late, make sure he's in your lineup on a limited basis and only when you're desperate for steals. Also keep in mind that Schafer is currently dealing with nerve injury in his left hand, although it shouldn't affect him in the long term.
Astros Infield News: Third Base - Johnson or Wallace? - Here's another position battle that's sure to be a hot topic in your league. Chris Johnson and Brett Wallace are battling for the starting third base job with Johnson currently the favorite to win the competition. Johnson is a notoriously impatience hitter, owning a career 4% walk rate to go against a 24% strikeout rate. That's so bad it's hurts me to write it. Keep in mind that if Johnson wins the job, you shouldn't expect or hope for a 2010-type season from him when he owned an .818 OPS and slammed 11 HRs in 362 plate appearances. That season, Johnson's numbers were fueled by an incredibly unsustainable .387 BABIP.
Meanwhile, Wallace was supposed to be a strong everyday bat in the middle of the Houston lineup by now. Instead he's struggling to beat Chris Johnson out for third base thanks to a horrific August and September where he batted .182 and .105, respectively. In the majors, Wallace has shown a better eye than Johnson but also strikes out at an alarming 26% clip. Assuming Wallace didn't suddenly forget how to handle a bat late last season, I'd like to see the Walrus get another shot here because he does have some upside. Whoever gets the starting job has backup potential in deep mixed and NL-only leagues.
Nick Swisher - Nick Swisher played five innings in a minor league game Friday for the first time since injuring his groin last week and said he felt good. He plans to play in the Yankees' two-game exhibition series versus Miami this weekend. If you're looking for consistency, Swisher's a pretty good guy to own on your team, especially in leagues that use OBP as a stat category. Last season Swisher hit .260 with 23 HRs and posted the highest line drive rate of his career at 22%. He's now recorded an OPS between .822 and .870 the past three seasons and has hit at least 21 HRs every year since 2005. With a career .213 ISO and strong 14% walk rate, Swisher gets on base and has solid power. He's not going to go berserk in any one category but he'll contribute a decent number of runs, RBI and HRs. In deep AL-only or mixed leagues, there's nothing wrong with having Swisher as your No. 3 OF.
Emilio Bonifacio - There are a few reasons to really like Emilio Bonifacio this season. First, he's hitting in the No. 2-hole for the Marlins, sandwiched between Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez so he's going to get pitches to hit. Second, he is eligible at third base, shortstop and outfield in most leagues making him a super utility guy. And, third, his success last season (when he batted .296/.360/.393) is mostly sustainable. While Bonifacio did own a quite high .372 BABIP, he also improved his LD rate to 24% and hit another 53% of his balls in play on the ground where he can utilize his exceptional speed to pile up infield singles. Keep in mind that Bonifacio owns a career .339 BABIP so his 33-point improvement between '10 and '11 - while certainly a decent jump - is not terribly far from his career mark. Even if we assume some regression from last season, Bonifacio shouldn't hurt your BA and will provide plenty of runs and steals.
Erick Aybar - Probably one of the most excited people to hear that Albert Pujols decided to sign with the Angels this past offseason was Erick Aybar. Aybar, who is the front-runner to bat leadoff in the Angels' lineup, should benefit from better pitch selection and more runs thanks to El Hombre's presence in the No. 3-hole. While Peter Bourjos could threaten Aybar for that coveted leadoff position, it's Aybar's position to lose and I don't expect any surprises. Last season, the shortstop slugged a career-high 10 HRs while also swiping a career-high 30 bases (in 36 attempts) as a 27-year old. I'm encouraged that he's increased his steal totals and steal percentage each of the past three seasons while also posting LD rates above 20% in two of those three years. With shortstop once again a thin position, Aybar should be a fine play in most league formats.
Kyle Farnsworth - I still find it weird that Kyle Farnsworth is an effective reliever. Just seems like he was meant to give up HRs and blow saves. However, during the past three seasons, Farnsworth has quietly been solid out of the 'pen by posting FIPs of 3.10, 3.06 and 3.10. He's also lowered his ERA from 4.58 in his unlucky 2009 campaign to 3.34 in 2010 to a minuscule 2.18 mark last season. As the Rays' closer (even though manager Joe Maddon won't officially give him that title), Farnsworth notched 25 saves in 31 chances while also recording a 0.99 WHIP. It's never good to pay for saves and Farnsworth proved that point in 2011. For this season, Farnsworth isn't likely to tally a bunch of strikeouts as his K rate fell from 10.13 in 2009 to just 7.96 last season. However, he's steadily decreased his walk rate and maintained a solid HR rate that is well below 1.0. The veteran right hander should be good for 25-30 saves and is a solid third tier closer.
Geovany Soto - It's safe to say Geovany Soto has experienced some fluctuation with his BA the past four seasons. In 2008 and 2010, Soto hit a cool .285 and .280. In 2009 and 2011, Soto hit a not-so-cool .218 and .228. What caused such an enormous swing in the catcher's BA? Well, as you might have suspected, Soto's BABIP was much higher in the two seasons where he hit for a better average. The reason is simple: Soto hit a lot more liners in '08 (21% LD rate) and '10 (24% LD rate) compared to '09 (18% LD rate) and '11 (19% LD rate). The inconsistency in his LD rate caused Soto's BABIP to swing from a low of .246 to a high of .332 during those four seasons. The good news is that Soto's power has remained a bit more consistent - his ISO has ranged between .163 and .219 - which leads me to believe the Cubs' catcher, at age 29, is a nice bounce back candidate this season. A .265 BA with 15-20 HRs is reasonable, and for those in OBP leagues, there's even more upside since Soto posted an uncharacteristically low 9% walk rate in 2011. He's a year removed from owning a 16% walk rate and .393 OBP so I expect him to be much closer to a .350 OBP this season than .300.
Mike Trout - It's been a disappointing spring for uber-prospect Mike Trout and the bad news continued Friday when the Angels option the outfielder to AAA-Salt Lake. Trout's battled a virus for most of camp and lost 15-20 pounds at one point. He had only gotten six ABs in the Cactus League so this news isn't terribly surprising. Expect Trout to hit the ball well in the minors and get a call-up before June 1. Last season, he accumulated 135 plate appearances en route to hitting five HRs and posting a .220/.281/.390 slash line. If this demotion means Trout's somehow available in your league, make sure you grab him ASAP as the kid remains one of the top five best prospects in the game.
Alex Gordon - While some fantasy managers may not believe in what Alex Gordon did at the plate last season, the Royals apparently do as they gave the 28-year old a four-year, $37 million contract on Friday that could be worth as much as $50 million if the player option is exercised. After being a disappointment at the major league level in his first four big league seasons, Gordon finally broke out in 2011 by posting a .200 ISO and .303/.376/.502 slash line. He also slammed 23 HRs, scored 101 runs, stole 17 bases and batted in 87. Gordon benefited from a .358 BABIP (compared to a .254 BABIP in 2010) despite the fact that his balls in play distribution wasn't much different than his career mark. Expect his BA to drop this season but it's reasonable to think his power numbers remain about the same.
Miguel Cabrera - The Tigers' third baseman returned to game action on Friday for the first time since getting struck in the face with a sharp grounder on March 19. And, to no one's surprise, Cabrera got right back into smashing the baseball by collecting two doubles. He's right on track to play Opening Day and the face injury shouldn't affect him at all this season. Expect another MVP-caliber season from one of the best hitters in the game.
Josh Johnson - In his final tune-up before making an Opening Night start versus the Cardinals, Josh Johnson tossed 5 2/3 innings, giving up three earned runs while striking out nine and walking just one. The one walk is encouraging as Johnson issued five free passes in his previous start. The big right hander finishes the spring with a 2.42 ERA and, more importantly, hasn't experienced any health issues. As you probably know, if Johnson stays healthy he can be a legitimate fantasy ace who racks up a lot of strikeouts.
Livan Hernandez - The Astros cut Livan Hernandez on Friday and it didn't take the Braves long to pick him up. While Hernandez might very well be older than Jamie Moyer at this point, he did post FIPs under 4.00 the past two seasons so it's reasonable to think he could help the back-end of a rotation or be a long man in relief. The Braves plan to use him in both roles in 2012. As for fantasy value, there's really not any unless Hernandez faces a weak lineup and your team is desperate for another start.
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