The Rays are expected to announce their starting rotation today and as we speculated last week, it appears that Jeff Niemann will win the 5th starter job over Wade Davis who appears to be headed to the pen.
Last Monday I talked about Jeff's lukewarm K rates and SwStr rates that have kept him from fulfilling the promise he offered as a prospect. He's also susceptible to the long ball. As he turns 29 his indicators have been stable enough for us to feel that he is what he is at this point, even though a very strong second half (3.41 ERA/1.17 whip) gives us a little hope. In fact, my SiriusXM partner Drew Dinkmeyer (Fantistics Insider Baseball Show, Sunday Mornings from 10a-1p Easter on SiriusXM Fantasy Radio Sirius 210 XM 87) would point out that Jeff actually got beat up a bit in September (6.94 ERA in 23.1 IP) so he didn't beat up on expanded rosters to post those great second-half rosters.
Niemann had a 1.06 ERA and a neat 1.06 WHIP in July (with 9K/9, and .209 OBA) and a 3.35/1.05 August. He was helped in those months by BHIP of .269 and .236 as well as LOBs of 93.6% and 78.8%, so when we mix this all together we get 10-12 wins and an ERA within a few runs of 4.05 or so, and a WHIP of about 1.25 ... Our draft software projection as of this morning is 13-10, 4.19.
Wade Davis got knocked around on Sunday allowing 4 runs in 4.2 IP, pretty much putting an end to his run for the rotation. Once a top prospect, Davis' K rate for 2011 was just 5.1/9, another plot point in a 3-year decline. That, combined with a 3.2/9 BB rate and a career 37.8% GB rate makes him a bad bet as a starter, especially in the AL East where walks, contact, and flyballs makes for a volatile combination. Last year his 4.45 ERA was helped by a slightly favorable .280 BHIP and 72.1% LOB, and a very favorable 8.8% HR/FB. His fastball/slider combo makes up his best two pitches and as a reliever he can get by with those a little more easily. He would not appear to be in line for many high-leverage situations however, so unless you league scores holds, Wade will be of limited value until a Rays starter falters or is injured.
You Jair Jurrjens owners can thank me for his encouraging performance on Sunday, in which he pitched 6 innings of 3-hit ball, 1 hit in his first 5 IP, albeit against a split-squad Astros team. I traded Jair Sunday morning.
Jurrjens says he's had trouble blocking out doubts about his right knee which he's injured late in each of the last two seasons. He's wearing a brace now and that has served as a nagging reminder. Opponents had hit .403 off of him this spring entering Sunday's start, over 13.1 IP, but manager Fredi Gonzalez said he was happy with Jair's location and stamina on Sunday.
Even before his velocity drop last year (89.1 mph, down from 91.1 career) there were doubts, legitimate ones, about his 13-6, 2.96 performance last year. His K rate dropped to 5.3/9 and he was helped mightily by a .269 BHIP and 81% LOB. Neutral numbers in those columns in 2010 (.300 BHIP and a 69.3%) produced a 4.64 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. Jair had similar good luck in 2009 (.268 BHIP and 79.4% LOB) and posted a .260 ERA and 1.21 WHIP
If he has jumped the psychological issue of his injury, Jair could be an effective pitcher for the Braves, but it seems to be folly to weigh his 2009 and 2011 seasons more heavily than his 2010 season. We are projecting 12-8, 4.07, 1.35. That seems like a decent bet in terms of production. I certainly wouldn't pay for more than that.
Freddie Freeman is heating up as the spring wears on. We all like Freddie's promise, and his 21-year-old season was a good one, especially considering his age. In real-world fantasy terms however it was mediocre for the position. The real-world question is how high his ceiling is.
The answer at this point appears to be that neither his BA or HR totals look to be headed towards elite levels. Last year his .282 BA was pumped by a .339 BHIP% that his ML history doesn't indicate he can maintain. His 21 HRs had the tailwind of a 14% HR/FB and although he made hard contact (23% LD% which he probably can't maintain either) he lifted the ball at just a 33% rate which doesn't tease large HR totals.
Still at just 22 with 571 MLB ABs under his belt already (with decent zone control and contact rates), in a solid teaching organization, it would be foolish to write Freddie off in keeper leagues. He'll learn to lift the ball eventually and then we'll have a better idea of his true power potential.
For 2012 however, look to 2011. That's pretty much what you can expect with a slight dip in BA as his BHIP% and LD% regress.
Kevin Youkilis yesterday downplayed the back issues that have recently scratched him from the Sox big league lineup this spring, and the word around Sox camp that is most often heard in regard to Youk's back is "precautionary". We aren't too concerned about this particular incident but it's not unreasonable at this point to pay some attention to Youk's general ability to stay healthy, and wonder about the early tremors of an overall decline.
Last year wasn't Youk's best. His ISO (.202) was a 4-year low as was his HR total (17) and his BA cratered (.258). His zone control is still elite however and his BHIP was seemingly level at .296, until you look at it in the context of his .329 career BHIP. His chase rate is in a 3-year decline but he hit .312 in 2008 with a chase rate just 1.4% worse than last years 23.6%, which is still pretty good.
Youk's skills are still there. Projections now seems to come down to how many games he can play and how many ABs he can collect. That's not a very predictable aspect of the game. We project him with 24 HRs, and 89 RBI in 517 ABs. The only optimistic thing about that projection is the ABs. I'd call 517 ABs a long shot. Anything above 18-19 HRs and 75-80 RBI is gravy, I think. I'd be reluctant to look for too much more than that.
David Wright was 1- for -2 in four innings of work in his spring debut on Monday. It now appears that he'll be ready to go on Opening Day. There's a lot of potential in this upcoming season, if David is past the stress fracture in his back from last year, and his abdominal issues this spring. A healthy Wright, nearing the end of his contract, with cozier dimensions at home (26 HRs on the road, 17 at home over the last two seasons) could rekindle some of the magic we saw before the reality of playing for the Mets sunk in. Pitchers seem to have also found a soft spot. His chase rate jumped to 30% in 2010 and 25.1% last year after 3 straight years at 21% . His walk rate has held though, and he dropped his K rate to 21.7% last year. Still, all of this is still far from his salad days around 2007 when he fanned just 16% of the time, had a 23% LD% and was coming off three years of sub-20% chase rates. Still, assuming a representative amount of ABs and reasonable health, he's going to approach 25 HRs and 18-20 SBs. As a Wright owner though, I can't wait until he gets out of New York.
The Orioles do not plan to place Brian Roberts on the 60-day DL to start the season. he'll be placed on the 15-day DL instead. Functionally this just means they don't have a real need for a 40-man roster slot at the moment. I wouldn't think this changes his non-existent timetable all that much. If there are any holdouts out there, this should still put Roberts on everyone's "Do Not Draft" list.
Robert Andino looks to be the Orioles starting second baseman on Opening Day. He got 457 ABs last year and swiped 13 bases. Andino is not going to hit for a ton of average but he won't burn you too bad either. My daughter worked "tech crew" (staging, lighting etc.) on a couple of plays in High School and designed a t-shirt for the crew that said "If you can see me, something's gone horribly wrong" ... If you can see Andino in your starting lineup in April, then something has gone horribly wrong.
Josh Collmenter is officially third in the D-backs rotation, despite a 9.75 spring ERA, and despite Trevor Bower bearing down on the big league club. A high release point gives Josh the look of a taller SP (he's 6'2") and presents hitters with some unusual angles and movement. He averages just 87 mph and works FB/CH 94% of the time. He gives up a lot of fly balls (47%) and only fanned 5.8/9 last year. His 3.38 ERA was helped quite a bit by his 7.7% HR/FB, a .255 BHIP%, and a 74.6% LOB. That's not going to hold and in fact his ERA could go up a full run this year as MLB hitters get used to him and his luck stats regress. It would be an upset if Josh finishes with a sub-4.00 ERA. Not a desirable draft option in your top 5, in all but the deeper mixed leagues.
Miguel Cabrera (eye) feels confident that he'll be ready Opening Day. He'll be examined by team doctors today and it's expected he'll be cleared to return to action. Miggy said there were/are no vision issues and he feels normal. Good news. All systems are go, Miggy is in his prime, his indicators are purring, and assuming his defensive shift doesn't mess with his offense, you may even see a little bounce in his HR and RBI numbers this year from his 30/105 last year.
Mike Trout is not having the start to this season that anyone envisioned, battling a nasty case of the flu and shoulder issues. That's AAA's loss as his setbacks have ensured that he'll begin the season in in the minors, ravaging AAA pitching once he's fully recovered. Mike has been cleared to begin throwing and could see action this week. In single-season leagues this delay will be significant and calls into question how much of an impact Mike will have this year. In keeper leagues Mike remains an elite prospect.
Bud Norris will not make his scheduled appearance on Wednesday due to arm tightness. He's slated to go on Friday and the Astros don't seem too worried. Can Norris follow up his strong 2011? Sort of. Nothing indicates he was overly lucky, and his stuff has seen a level jump over the last 12 months. He also tamed his walk rate last year. Still, it all comes down to HRs. He gives some up. A swing of 3 or 4 HRs could mean close to 0.40 in ERA over 200 IP. That having been said, Bud could be a source of value in your league if your fellow owners are sleeping. We are projecting 10 wins and 3.84/1.31.
Chipper Jones ... my first fantasy low-minors "find" ... (man, I am getting old) ... underwent successful arthroscopic surgery on Monday to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee. I assume "successful " means he still has a left leg. Chipper still thinks he'll be ready for Opening Day but it's going to come down to the wire. He's a month away from 40, but he's still rosterable, if only as a reserve. You just have to hope when you need him he's healthy enough to go. We are projecting .266/15/57.
Kendrys Morales was 3- for -4 against the Rockies last night. He's hitting .615 this spring, 8- for -13, a very encouraging start. It's easy to forget what Morales is capable of. I'll remind you. In 2009 he hit .306/.355/.569 with 34 HRs and 108 RBI. And he's been out so long that you tend to think he's older than his 28+ years. Lot's of unknowns here and lots of moving parts in any projection. But if he's healthy he will hit his way into enough ABs to make a dent. We are projecting .291/26/76 should he get 494 ABs.
Dusty Baker who was obviously sent here to torture fantasy owners has indicated that he may react to Ryan Madson's season ending TJS with a dreaded "closer by committee". I still like Sean Marshall here. What's not to like? Strong K rate (9.4/9 last year over 75 IP), great SwStr% (11.5% and on a 3-year rise), he's limiting his walks (2.0/9 down from 3/9 in 2010), a .229 OBA (with an unfavorable .313 BHIP) and a miniscule HR/9 (0.12 last year, .36 in 2010) ... In addition, he throws 4 legitimate pitches including a very good curve which hitters just are not geared up for in late-inning situations. The knock is that he doesn't bring high-end velocity (91 mph average, and that's up from 87 as late as 2009). Dusty's reluctance to pick a path however, means that it's hard to add much draft value to Marshall or Aroldis Chapman, or anyone else from the Reds pen.
Bob Melvin has named Brandon Allen the A's starting first baseman for Opening Day, indicating that he's beat out Kila Ka'aihue. That makes what we already knew official. Allen makes for an interesting fit for the A's. he's got undeniable power, but as a regular he projects to strike out a ton of times. Not exactly a moneyball poster boy. he posted a 36.5% chase rate last year in 175 ABs, which only barely beat out his 34.9% K rate. His contact rate for 324 career MLB ABs is sub 70%(!) at 69.8%. 450 ABs would likely return 20+ homers but 150 ... or more ... Ks. He'll be a source for HRs, but that will probably be the extent of his positive contributions.
