Chicago Cubs:
Jeff Samardzija the starter?
Perhaps the most surprising news out of Cubs camp has been the emergence of Jeff Samardzija as an option in the Cubs rotation. The Cubs went into camp with 5 options for the last 3 slots in the rotation along with a bullpen that had seen its depth diminished through offseason trades of Sean Marshall and Andrew Cashner. The idea of letting Jeff Samardzija compete for the spot seemed like one more out of courtesy, after the Cubs declined his option and negotiated a pay decrease, than out of legitimate need. However with the regular season less than two weeks away, Samardzija's pitched himself into a spot in the rotation that is "all but certain" according to Cubs manager Dale Sveum. Samardzija's been great in the spring (10 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 9 K) but you figure the Cubs organization led by Theo Epstein wouldn't be one to succumb to the small, and diluted, samples of spring; which leads me to the question is this legitimately worth digging in on? For NL Only leaguers and deep mixed leaguers I think the answer may be yes.
Samardzija's career has been marked with command issues (5.3 BB/9) and underwhelming strikeout rates (7.5 K/9) despite strong velocity (94.5 mph avg FB velocity). He showed some small signs of getting the command under control in the 2nd half of last year with a 3.96 BB/9, which was manageable out of the pen but would signal some trouble in the rotation. In addition to the improved command Samardzija also showed signs of improved strikeout potential. The K Rate approached 9 K/9 out of the pen and it was supported by a strong 9.9% swinging strike rate and improved 29% chase rate. While those improvements are meaningful, they also led to a mediocre 4.27 xFIP out of the pen - not exactly inspiring confidence as a starter.
In order to be a successful starter Samardzija would need to cut down the BB's further and sustain the improved K Rate he experienced last season. In essence there wasn't enough in last year's leap to suggest he could succeed this year; their needed to be more. While the results this spring are compelling, specifically the 0 BB's, the thing I'm most impressed by are the improved scouting reports. A number of scouts have referred to Samardzija as "a different pitcher" this spring noting improvements in his mechanics and his composure. Keith Law even referenced a scout he talked to that said it was as if "a light had gone off" with Samardzija. This is important because Samardzija needed to be a different guy in order to have success. I'm still looking to catch his next start and at this point the history suggests he's not worth much more than a late round flier in deep leagues, but I'm officially intrigued.
Carlos Marmol's MRI reveals no nerve issues - are we in the clear?
When I saw the tweet "Marmol leaves game with apparent injury" my worst fears immediately set in. I often refer to declining velocity and declining command as potential warning signs surrounding arm injuries and with Marmol you've seen both warning flags pop up in recent years. Last year Marmol's velocity dropped from a career average above 94 mph, to just under 92 mph. Never known for his command Marmol's BB Rates have actually been modestly stable, but his zone % (the % of pitches inside the strike zone) fell off two percentage points as well to a career low 45%. Those indicators coupled with a violent delivery, high slider usage rate, and some abusive usage patterns in his past (specifically with Lou Pineilla) have had me concerned about a severe injury for a few years.
While the clean MRI gives owners a reason to exhale, I'm not sure we're completely out of the woods. Marmol's spring leaves plenty of room for concern (5 2/3 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 4 BB, 6 K) and I can't shake the question marks surrounding the big drop in velocity last year. If healthy there are some statistical signs that suggest Marmol will rebound, including an unusually high BHIP% and HR/FB% compared to Marmol's career average, but I have my concerns over a guy with a 56% slider usage and a 2 mph drop in velocity. We always suggest being careful overpaying for saves, but I'm taking extra care with Marmol this year.
Miami Marlins:
Carlos Zambrano re-born?
I noted earlier in the spring I was interested to see if the reports that Carlos Zambrano's velocity had returned were true. In the first start I saw of Zambrano's the velocity was indeed improved. He was touching 93-94 and generally sitting around 91-92 on the stadium gun. Given Zambrano's average FB velocity had dipped down to 90 mph the last two seasons, the tick-up is interesting. While Zambrano has still struggled commanding the plate this spring (5 BB's, 9 H in 9 IP), the gigantic strikeout rate (16 K's in 9 IP) has caught my eye when coupled with the increased velocity. Zambrano's command and the high hit rates in the spring keep expectations tempered, but there's reason to hope for upside that wasn't there before. In a contract year and pitching in what many think will likely play as a favorable pitching environment Zambrano's improved velocity makes him worth a late round flier in deep leagues. Even with the high BB Rate and corresponding WHIP Zambrano has posted an ERA below 3.50 in 4 of the 5 seasons he's struck out more than 8 batters per nine innings.
Hanley Ramirez adjusting to 3B
One of the perks of the new show on SiriusXM (Sundays 10 AM - 1 PM EST) is the ability to interview beat writers and get some qualitative information that can help us better understand the quantitative indicators. When we had Josh Friedman, Marlins beat writer, on the show last week we asked some questions about Hanley Ramirez's adjustment both mentally and physically to 3B. Friedman noted Ramirez had been fully committed in camp to the switch and was having one of the best camps he could remember Hanley having. In addition when I asked him questions about Hanley's recurring shoulder issues in the past and the possible contributions to the lack of power and higher GB Rates we saw from Ramirez over the last few years. He noted that all reports from the surgery were positive and the Marlins believe it's no longer a concern. He repeated a number of times how big of a year he anticipated Hanley having and as he talked I believed it more and more. We've talked a lot about how scarce the SS position is and how it's impacted Troy Tulowitzki in our VAM rankings, but as the spring has gone on and our confidence in Ramirez's spring (.414/.528/.724) has grown you've seen Hanley steadily creep into our top 10. I've become convinced that the strange ISO decline Hanley has experienced in what should be his prime years are a result of the previous shoulder issues and with that cleaned up I think we see a strong rebound in Hanley's performance this year. I came into spring nervous about spending an early round pick on Hanley and I've become comfortable as spring has worn on.
Colorado Rockies:
Jordan Pacheco - Super Utility Sleeper with C eligibility?
We've talked a lot about Wilin Rosario as a sleeper at the C position in Colorado because of his elite power and strong prospect status, but if Rosario isn't able to win a starting job in spring it's likely he'll head down to the minors for everyday AB's and more seasoning. The backup catcher would end up being Jordan Pacheco, whose versatile glove may also earn him AB's at 1B and 3B. Pacheco isn't quite the power hitter that Rosario is but his .803 career minor league OPS boosted by consistent strong average and on-base percentages is nothing to sneeze at either. Ramon Hernandez isn't accustomed to full time playing time and with Casey Blake working his way back to health at 3B as well, Pacheco could see AB's early in the season in a utility role. Pacheco doesn't have a ton of power, but his strong contact skills (89% last season) should lead to average capabilities and early season value in NL Only formats. We prefer Rosario as the long-term prospect and stash this year, but early in the season desperate NL only owners may want to take a shot on Pacheco's versatility leading to some playing time.
Rockies Rotation settled outside of the 5th spot:
The Rockies entered camp with a lot of uncertainty in the rotation, but camp performances have shaken out four of the five spots. Jeremy Guthrie, acquired from the Orioles, will act as the ace of the rotation and he'll be flanked by Jhoulys Chacin, Juan Nicasio, and Drew Pomeranz. All three of those young starters have aspects of their performance that suggest things could come together. Let's take a quick look at the positive cases for those three:
Jhoulys Chacin - Posted an elite K Rate in 2010 (9.0 K/9) and elite GB Rate in 2011 (56%). He's consistently struggled with command (4.0 BB/9), but if he can combine the best of his K's and GB's it won't matter as much. His swinging strike rate will help tell the story early in the season.
Juan Nicasio - Elite minor league numbers (8.9 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9) and good command + strong swinging strike and K Rates in professional debut. His 3.43 xFIP shows immediate skills at the big league level, but an over-reliance on his fastball (74% of the time) and a high LD Rate (22%) inflated the ERA and WHIP.
Drew Pomeranz - 10.6 K/9 with strong GB Rates in the minors. His FB velocity doesn't translate to the high K Rate (89-90 mph), so there's some concern those won't hold in the majors, but the high GB Rates coupled with adequate command should allow him to become a mid-rotation starter. In fantasy his value will be determined by carrying the strong K Rate over. In a very small (18 IP) sample his 4.5% swinging strike rate was a concern.
The 5th spot is coming down to a battle between Guillermo Moscoso, Jamie Moyer and Tyler Chatwood. Both pitchers are risky options for Coors Field for different reasons. Moscoso's heavy FB Rate (55.5%) and inability to miss bats (5.2 K/9) will likely be problematic in holding his ratios down. Tyler Chatwood has strong velocity and a great arm, but was rushed by the Angels last season and struggled commanding the zone or fooling hitters. His K:BB Ratio barely exceeded 1 and his swinging strike % (4.6%) or chase rate (22%) didn't leave much room for optimism. Moyer, at 49 (50 in November) appears to be the favorite by default. Moyer's been solid this spring as he's worked his arm back into shape and while he provides a little more than league average innings, the Rockies appear to be in search of that. Between the three Chatwood has a touch more upside, but is very unlikely to reach it this year and Moyer/Moscoso's skills only suggest they'll be fantasy worthy when starting on the road in big parks.
Notes from around the league:
Trevor Cahill (SP - ARZ) - It hasn't been an encouraging spring for Trevor Cahill (8 IP, 11 H, 7 ER, 4 HR, 3 BB, 8 K), but I remain optimistic about Cahill's value with the move to Arizona. Research has historically shown pitchers moving from the AL to the NL gain about .5 K/9, which could boost Cahill above that 7.0 K/9 thresholds many look to for evaluating SPs. In addition, the great GB Rate Cahill consistently possesses should help limit some of the differences in changing parks from a pitchers haven in Oakland to a difficult home park in Chase Field. We also expect a rebound in Cahill's ERA and WHIP thanks to regression in his BHIP% (singles average of .299 last yr) which was elevated over his career averages. We're projecting a sub-4 ERA to go with a 1.33 WHIP and a career high in K's (160+), making him an adequate back-end option in mixed leagues and a solid mid-rotation starter in NL Only formats.
JJ Hardy (SS - BAL) - Hardy carried a lot of fantasy owners to titles last year as a waiver wire pickup that went on to hit 30 HR's at the SS position. Projecting Hardy going forward comes with many risks though. The first and most obvious one comes in Hardy's health. He's missed at least 30 games in three straight years due to a variety of ailments and in many years the production has been down as he's tried to play through nagging injuries as well. From a statistical perspective Hardy doesn't bring much else to the table other than pop. His BB Rate has steadily declined down to a paltry 5.5% last season as his chase rate expanded to a career high 31%. In addition the power, which has been his strength throughout his career (.172 ISO) may have been over-stated last season. Hardy was 3rd in the AL in "just enough" HR's with 14 and his 15.7% HR/FB Rate was 4 percentage points higher than his career average. With regression expected in his HR totals and walk/contact rates limiting his contributions in average and Runs (weak OBP), Hardy is an overvalued asset on draft day.
Adam Lind (1B/DH - TOR) - Adam Lind seems to have settled into what "he is" and that's an out-machine that has some fantasy value because of his power. Lind has now posted sub-.300 OBP's in two straight seasons and the indicators show little room for optimism. Lind's chase rate has expanded from 24% in 2009 to 34.6% in 2010 and 37.1% in 2011. He continues to post strong LD rates (19.7%) and HR/FB Rates (15.4%) which are the lone skills keeping him employed. The Jays continued willingness to hit him in the middle of the lineup has helped boost his RBI production, but the emergence of Brett Lawrie and Edwin Encarnacion could end up pushing Lind down the order. With just two categories that Lind can make a positive impact in (HR/RBI), and one of those categories susceptible to lineup positioning, owners need to be careful at overpaying for Lind. I think a .260 avg with 25+ HR's and 80+ RBI's are reasonable expectations for Lind this year.
Ryan Madson (RP - CIN) - Madson was scratched from a scheduled minor league appearance on Thursday with what appears to be a setback with the elbow injury that has bothered him all spring. There's no immediate time-line for Madson to resume a throwing program, but setbacks this close to the season could very likely result in a DL stint to start the year for Madson. If Madson were to start the year on the DL, Sean Marshall and his elite relief skills (9.4 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.12 HR/9, 57% GB Rate) would likely take-over the closer's role. Marshall's talent makes him worthy of an immediate pickup right now, especially for Madson owners needing an insurance policy.
Tim Hudson (SP - ATL) - Hudson got his first action of the spring against live hitters, tossing a simulated game on Thursday. Recovering from back surgery, Hudson is on pace to return in early May and the early signs on the rehab have all been positive. Hudson said after the outing that the ball felt good out of his hand and he'll throw another live batting practice session on Sunday. Huddy saw his K Rate rebound last year back into the mid 6's thanks to a rebound in his swinging strike rate. Taking a step back you can see slight signs of deterioration in skills over the last few years, but the deterioration is so slight that owners shouldn't expect much drop-off. An elite ratio contributor (WHIP/ERA), Hudson's injury is creating a nice discount in his value on draft day. He's a great guy to pair with high K pitchers who either won't have big innings but will have great K Rates (Stephen Strasburg) or will contribute shaky ratios (Brandon Morrow).
Kendrys Morales (1B/DH - LAA) - Morales made his Cactus League debut on Thursday and did so in fine fashion, singling twice and scoring a run in 3 AB's. We've been pretty high on Morales as a sleeper option even early into the preseason, but that tag may be removed with each positive news report on Morales' ankle. Be prepared to step up a round earlier than current ADP reports if you want to get your hands on Morales. My guess is those ADP numbers will continue to rise with each successful step in his rehab. Morales has consistently hit since debuting in 2006 and his career .284/.336/.502 major league line should produce plenty of RBI's sitting behind Mr. Pujols in the lineup. If healthy he's a likely top 15 1B with top 10 upside. I'm drafting him with confidence in the double digit rounds and considering it a steal, especially in leagues where he also has OF eligibility.
Adam Dunn (1B/DH - CHA) - I noted on twitter a few weeks back that Adam Dunn was a guy whose spring training mattered to me and boy is he making an impression. Dunn knocked out 2 more HR's yesterday and is now hitting .333/.515/.875 with just 1 K in his first 24 AB's and 9 BB's. Dunn's looked like a completely different player than the one that was lost last season when he hit .159/.292/.277. Even more importantly Dunn's HR's on Thursday came off of LH Bruce Chen. Dunn didn't homer off a lefty last year and was just 6-94 with 39 K's. Dunn reportedly worked out in the offseason for the first time in his career and given the strong spring performance I'm pretty comfortable projecting a bounce back this year. In projecting Dunn you almost have to wipe away last season and project a more normal decline phase for a 32 year old. With a late teens round ADP, Dunn looks like a tremendous gamble.
Erik Bedard (SP - PIT) - The Pirates named Erik Bedard their opening day starter on Thursday which gives me another opportunity to rant on about Bedard as a nice late-round option. We all know the injury risks associated with Bedard and the very small likelihood that you'll even get 120 innings out of him this year. With that said when drafts are winding down and you're staring at late-round options like Jeff Niemann or Tim Stauffer or Matt Harrison, I'd rather take a shot on a guy that has some upside in the starts that he'll make. When people talk about SP being deep this is where it matters. With more replacement level starters available it makes sense to take more chances with upside and better per inning performances late in the drafts. Bedard's overall projection may not top some of those starters more likely to contribute 160+ IP, but Bedard's near 1 K/IP, likely sub- 3.50 ERA in the NL, and sub-1.30 WHIP will give you a bigger head-start in your SP categories that can eventually be replaced by the improved depth on the waiver wire.
Brian Matusz (SP - BAL) - Adding another player to the list of guys whose spring stats matter to me, Brian Matusz has had a strong spring posting a phenomenal 16:1 K:BB Ratio over 15 innings. He's allowed 18 hits, but hasn't allowed a HR and scouts have been impressed with his velocity. Matusz had seen his velocity, typically 91-92 mph, drop down to 88-89 the last two years and along with it came a large spike in his HR Rate. Many speculated Matusz was pitching through some type of injury that was hiding the promise he showed in the minor leagues (8.4 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9 - 2.33 ERA, 1.11 WHIP). The division and home park will still bring challenges for relying on Matusz as more than a spot starter, but he's a former top prospect who posted a 4.06 FIP in 200+ IP in the AL East before seeing the velocity drop-off significantly last year. In AL Only leagues he's absolutely worth taking a risk on and even in mixed leagues he's a pitcher with upside I'm willing to take a shot on and play matchups with early in the season.
Domonic Brown (OF - PHI) - The Phillies optioned Domonic Brown down to AAA on Thursday. This didn't come as much of a surprise, despite Brown hitting .300/.333/.650 in 20 AB's this spring. The Phillies organization has soured on Brown and while many of us at Fantistics can't figure out why it appears he'll need some good fortune to get his opportunity this year. The Phillies have decided to entertain guys like Juan Pierre, Scott Podsednik, Laynce Nix, and John Mayberry Jr over Brown this spring for the starting LF position. It appears there will be little Brown can do in his performance to turn-around the Phillies braintrust. While we still believe in his skills, a change of scenery is starting to look necessary for Brown to emerge.
