Preseason Prep - March 21, 2012

Indians Middle Infield News: Can Jason Kipnis Do It Again? - The Indians gave prospect Jason Kipnis a chance last season and the youngster delivered in his 150 plate appearances to the tune of seven HRs, five steals and a .272/.333/.507 slash line. Kipnis also produced a very strong .235 ISO and .841 OPS (which is in line with his minor league track record). That type of power makes us think Kipnis can belt between 15-20 HRs this season. I do worry that Kipnis may wear down by season's end (since it is his first full big league campaign) and, like most young players, he'll likely be up and down quite a bit. I also encourage you to monitor Kipnis' walk and strikeout rates. He struck out in 22% of his plate appearances while walking in just 7% last season. As pitchers start to figure out Kipnis' tendencies, he'll need to show more patience and not chase junk pitches out of the strike zone. Overall, Kipnis projects as a solid fantasy option at second base in 2012.

Indians Middle of the Rotation News: Will Josh Tomlin Be A Poor Man's Doug Fister? - Seemingly out of nowhere, Josh Tomlin put together a very nice 2011 season by going 12-7 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 26 starts. He started on fire by posting ERAs of 2.45 in April and 3.03 in May before struggling in the season's final three months. Tomlin's biggest problem is that he's a fly ball pitcher who gets devastated by HRs. Last season, the right hander owned a 40% fly ball rate (the year before it was 50%) and 1.31 HR/FB rate. It's also worth noting that because Tomlin allowed few base runners, he gave up a lot of solo HRs but few of the two- or three-run variety. For Tomlin to maintain or improve upon his low 4.00-ish ERA in 2012, he'll need to start missing more bats. In 2011, Tomlin struck out just 4.84 batters per nine innings but he does own a 7.8 minor league strikeout rate so it's reasonable to think the 27-year old can make incremental improvements in 2012. For now, Tomlin's a late round or waiver wire addition to your team until he posts better HR and strikeout rates.

Cardinals Back Of The Rotation News: Can Lance Lynn Be An Effective Starter? - Prior to Chris Carpenter's bulging disc injury, Lance Lynn was likely destined to the Cardinals' bullpen in 2012. However, the team announced over the past weekend that Lynn will be treated as a starter and fill-in for Carpenter if the veteran right hander isn't ready for the rotation once the season begins. Last season, Lynn pitched 40 innings as reliever in the big leagues, striking out 34 and posting a 2.88 FIP, 2.70 xFIP and 3.12 ERA. However, he's pitched as a starter throughout his minor league career with some pretty decent results. In 2009, Lynn threw a 126 innings with a 2.92 ERA and 6.98 strikeout rate at AA. He tossed 164 innings with a 4.77 ERA and 7.74 strikeout rate for AAA-Memphis in 2010 but keep in mind the Pacific Coast League is very much a hitter-friendly environment. Lynn has also been able to improve the velocity on his fastball over the last few years and he can now reach 93-94 mph. All said, there are plenty of reasons to believe Lynn can have some early-season success as a starter. His value in the long view is a bit murky but he's worth a roster spot for Opening Day.

Cardinals Outfield News: Matt Holliday Is Good, But Don't Overpay - When fantasy baseball managers think of Matt Holliday, it seems that too many envision a guy who consistently hits 30 HRs and drives in 100 runs. However, Holliday actually hasn't eclipsed the 30-HR plateau since 2007 and has only reached 100 RBI in two of the past four seasons. And last season, Holliday was injured, missing nearly 40 games and hit under .300 for the first time since his rookie season in 2004. All of this doesn't mean Holliday isn't a valuable bat in any league format - he most definitely is. But I would be careful not to overpay or draft too high because his power numbers aren't in line with top tier outfielders. He's also 31-years old and doesn't have a certain Albert Pujols hitting ahead of him in the lineup anymore. Expect Holliday to hit around .300, belt about 25 HRs, drive in 90-95 and score 90.

Astros Top Of The Rotation News: The Underrated Bud Norris? - At 27, Bud Norris is an intriguing fantasy starting pitcher heading into the 2012 season. He's coming off a season where he lowered his ERA from 4.92 in 2010 to 3.77. He also struck out 176 batters and posted an 8.52 strikeout rate. However, because of his tendency to give up HRs and issue free passes (he owns a 3.92 career walk rate), Norris is not considered much more than a couple dollar player or late round addition in most league formats. I actually value Norris a bit more than my colleagues for a couple reasons. First, he significantly improved his walk rate between 2010 and 2011 (4.51 to 3.39) in his age-26 season which tells me he may have turned the corner with his control. Second, despite the volatility with his ERA the past two seasons, Norris' FIP and xFIP have both been consistent (FIP: 4.17 and 4.02; xFIP: 3.96 and 3.73) so it's not unreasonable to expect him to post another ERA in the 3.75-3.90 range in 2012. There aren't too many pitchers who have 185-195 strikeout potential and even fewer who can be had for little cost like Norris. For those reasons, I'm targeting him as a value pick in all NL-only and deep mixed leagues.

Astros Outfield News: What To Expect From J.D. Martinez - The Astros are handing the keys to left field to J. D. Martinez in 2012 and the 24-year old makes for an interesting sleeper option. Martinez has crushed the ball in his minor league career, posting a .342/.407/.551 slash line with 43 HRs in 298 games. He did that damage in Rookie through AA ball but it's hard to ignore such eye-popping stats. Last season, Martinez got 208 ABs at the major league level and produced to the tune of a .423 SLG% and .274 BA to go along with 6 HRs and a .149 ISO. Martinez also tends to hit a large percentage of line drives, recording a 27% LD rate last season which is right in line with his minor league rates. Thanks to all those liners, Martinez has maintained very high BABIP numbers throughout his professional career which has, in turn, fueled his strong BAs. With 500 ABs this season, and assuming Martinez performs like he did in 2011, we're talking about a player with 15-20 HR potential. That's some really nice value for a guy you can grab for next to nothing in your auction or draft.

Dan Uggla - It's safe to say Dan Uggla had two very distinct halves last season with the Braves. In the first half, he connected for 15 HRs but also owned a putrid .185/.257/.365 slash line as well as a 74 OPS+. As someone who owned Uggla, I considered simply leaving my second base slot vacant some days, rather than take another "o-fer with three strikeouts" game. However, in the second half, Uggla woke up and slammed 21 HRs en route to recording a .948 OPS. In total, Uggla managed 36 HRs and 82 RBI which is pretty darn good considering how poorly he batted early in the season. Heading into this season, expect a typical Uggla year: 30+ HRs, 90 RBI, 90 runs and an average in the .265-.270 range.

Paul Konerko - I keep waiting for Paul Konerko to slow down but he keeps proving me wrong. Last year, in his age-35 season, Konerko didn't miss much of a beat, hitting 31 HRs and driving in 105 runs while batting .300. The White Sox first baseman posted an OPS above .900 in three separate months, including an incredible 1.222 mark in June. He didn't hit as well after the All Star break, recording an OPS that was 121 points below his first half mark. Konerko's value will also take a hit thanks to the poor lineup protection around him this season so expect a drop in runs and RBI. He still remains a solid and reliable first base option.

Alex Avila - I'm not a huge fan of spending lots of money or a high pick on catchers so you won't see me going after Alex Avila like other fantasy managers. Yes, Avila had a very solid 2011 campaign by batting .295/.389/.505 and belting 19 HRs for the Tigers. However, as I've mentioned on Twitter, Avila's BABIP soared from .278 in 2010 to an eye-popping .366 last season so his BA is very likely to drop into the .270s once regression takes over in 2012. However, I do believe the power is real based on Avila's consistency from month to month last season. Aside from a horrible July, Avila posted SLG% marks above .500 in four months with a .446 percentage in September. As my colleague Drew has mentioned on the Fantistics podcast, month-to-month consistency matters when you're trying to determine whether a player can maintain a certain level of production. The fact Avila was able to post such strong slugging percentages throughout last year indicates his pop is legit.

Joe Mauer - Speaking of catchers, Joe Mauer is a player I won't touch with a ten-foot pole in drafts or auctions because he continues to be overvalued. For some reason, Mauer has become a Teflon sort of player. No matter how many injuries or how few HRs he hits, plenty of fantasy managers look at his 2009 season and good looks and decide they'll spend $25 on him in an auction. Not me. I look at Mauer and see a player who is a huge injury risk at a demanding position. I also see a player who has hit double digit HRs all of two times during his career, once in 2006 (13 HRs) and again in that incredible 2009 campaign. And that was before he moved into the spacious Target Field where HRs go to die. Of course, I like the high BA but there are too many quality catchers available that can post decent numbers and not cost you an arm and a leg come draft day.

Kurt Suzuki - Three catcher updates in a row? You bet. The Athletics' Kurt Suzuki has been pretty darn consistent the past two seasons, owning OPS marks of .669 and .686 while hitting 13 and 14 HRs, respectively. However, there may be reason to believe Suzuki can slam 15-17 HRs this season. First, he's still just 28 so he's in his power prime. Second, last year, Suzuki improved his ISO by 25 points while also hitting a career-high in HRs despite recording his lowest number of plate appearances since 2007. He also managed to improve both his LD and FB rates by 3%. Assuming he gets more PAs this year and maintains or slightly improves upon his power, Suzuki has a good chance to be just as valuable as guys like Yadier Molina (assuming Molina experiences a regression in his BA, which I think he will).

Clayton Kershaw - From what I've been reading and hearing, most fantasy managers believe pitching is so deep that there's little reason to spend a lot of money or an early pick on a pitcher because you can grab decent guys for a few bucks or a middle to late round pick. However, you'll hear different advice from our staff. With so many managers waiting on pitching, there's actually a market inefficiency for the top tier pitching studs like Clayton Kershaw or Felix Hernandez. If most teams in your league plan to get a bunch of middle of the rotation guys, that means the teams with the cream of the crop pitchers will have a huge advantage. Don't be shy to spend money or early picks on a couple of the best pitchers to separate yourself from the other teams in your league. Perhaps the best pitcher in all of fantasy, Kershaw should be worth every penny this year. After posting a 9.57 strikeout rate, 2.28 ERA and finishing 21-5 in 2011, it'll be tough for the lefty to top those numbers. But at just 24, there's a legit shot Kershaw just may in 2012.

Andre Ethier - So what do we make of Andre Ethier this season? The Dodgers' outfielder experienced a drastic drop in his power between 2010 and 2011 as his ISO fell from .201 to just .129. Ethier also posted the lowest SLG% of his career at just .421 and finished with a mere 11 HRs in 551 plate appearances. The biggest difference for Ethier was that he hit far fewer fly balls, finishing the season with a FB rate that was down 7% compared to his 2010 campaign. While half of those flyballs became liners, the other half turned into grounders so that helps explain part of why Ethier struggled to hit more HRs. Considering all his other stats were in line with his career norms, I'm expecting a decent bounce back season.

Grant Balfour - The Athletics announced on Tuesday that Grant Balfour will be the team's closer to start the season, pushing Brian Fuentes to a set-up role. Last season, Balfour posted a 2.47 ERA (although his FIP was much higher at 3.77) and struck out 59 batters in 62 innings. It's worth monitoring Balfour's HR rate early in the season as he struggled for the first time since his rookie season with the long ball in 2011 by giving up 1.16 round-trippers per nine innings. The right hander has also experienced a declining strikeout rate each of the past three seasons. With Oakland destined for the basement of the AL West, don't expect too much from Balfour in the saves department.

Nefatli Feliz - The process of transitioning Neftali Feliz from closer to starter hit a snag Tuesday when the right hander left a spring game with shoulder stiffness after three innings. Prior to getting pulled, Feliz had thrown 54 pitches in his three scoreless frames. Rangers' pitching coach Mike Maddux indicated that he removed Feliz from the game more as a precaution than anything else, but this is obviously something to monitor in the coming days. Feliz also missed time last season with shoulder inflammation.

Ryan Braun - The Brewers planned to play Ryan Braun in back-to-back games this week for the first time during the spring but that didn't happen as the left fielder was a late scratch due to groin tightness. What's a bit alarming is that manager Ron Roenicke said the injury has been bothering Braun for several weeks but he was playing through it. To me, that seems like an odd strategy to use with your franchise player. Braun won't play today and the Brewers are off Thursday so the earliest we'll see him back in action is Friday. So far this spring, Braun is 1-for-17 with a HR.

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