Clay Buchholz pitched well in his spring start against the Rays on Sunday, 4 Ks, 4 hits, 0 walks, in 5 IP, one run on a solo homer by Evan Longoria, who must not be able to sleep the night before playing the Red Sox. He kills them ... March, July, August, it doesn't matter. Clay is a quality starter who fell to back issues in mid June of last year. No signs of those issues so far this year. Some raise warning flags about Clay, based on his 79% LOB in 2010 and that did of course make his ERA play up to 2.33 as did his 5.6% HR/FB. That's fair. And of course he posted a .261 BAHIP that year as well, and was on his way towards repeating those LOB and BAHIP indicators last year before his injury. The LOB% won't hold, and neither will a BAHIP% in the .260s, but he should do better than most in BAHIP. He draws soft contact (sub-18% LD% in 2009 and 2010 and 10.9% last year) and actually has some positive regression potential in his SwStr% this year (8.4% last year a career low). His velocity dropped a bit last year, perhaps early tremors from his back issues. That's something to watch as we progress this spring. 2010 will likely be a career year when all is said and done, but 13-15 wins, an ERA within a few earned runs of 3.50 and a sub-1.40 WHIP are all realistic expectations in a healthy season. Not top shelf in mixed leagues, but not bad at all.
Don't be fooled by any talk you might hear regarding Jose Iglesias and SS in Boston circa 2012. The Sox are committed to Mike Aviles for the time being, and from a fantasy standpoint he can be a contributor until the Red Sox are forced to make a deal. Two things that bother me about Mike are that he's not a prototypical Fenway hitter and won't take advantage of the left field wall to the extent you might imagine, and his low BB rate (4.2% career) and declining LD% (4 year decline from 20.2% in 2008, to 15.7% last year could easily result in a negative-impact BA (and/or OBP) like his .255 last year (.289). That has to threaten his PT at some point. Should he earn enough ABs he's capable of 10/15, maybe 12/17, but Nick Punto may drain some ABs, and Mike hit just .229 vs. RHP this past season. Historically however his LHP/RHP split is pretty level at .299/.283 career. Iglesias could play a part in 2012 at some point, but he's a non-starter from a fantasy standpoint this year. His .235 BA in AAA (357 ABs) last year and .034 ISO were almost histrically bad and his 5.4% BB rate doesn't indicate he's near ready offensively. He'll start 2012 in the minors despite his amazing defensive abilities, and hopefully he'll hit well enough to enter the discussion in June.
Mike Minor is making a strong push in Braves camp, pushing his scorless IP streak to 14 on Sunday with a very good 5 IP. Mike's status in drafts to this point indicates that there may be some significant value here. His 4.14 ERA over 15 starts last year won't wow anyone leafing through a magazine, but there are reasons to believe he's ready for a breakout of sorts. In 2011, he suffered through a .350 BAHIP, fueled by a scary 27.4% LD%. His chase rate was healthy at nearly 30% and his SwStr% of 8.1% has room for improvement but it's not contributory to that LD%. Some may point to his .379 BAHIP in 2010 over 40 IP and say maybe that's just who he is, but his minor league history doesn't support that. His AAA BAHIP in AAA last year was a slightly favorable .295 and in 2010 in AAA it was .234. Those 2010 40 IP also produced a very respectable 17.5% LD% and an 11.3% SwStr% ... I still believe he's been incredibly unlucky with BAHIP. Setting that aside we are looking at a tall left-handed starter whose not overpowering at 91 mph, but he's got 4 MLB-caliber pitches that he uses liberally with command and control. He's capable of something approaching a K per inning, misses bats, and limits his walks. He could throw more GBs, but he keeps the ball in the park. What's not to like here? His level of opportunity in 2012 unclear, but he has the goods to be able to run with a chance. A sub-4.00 ERA is a very reasonable projection with a WHIP around 1.35. He'll perform if he's given the chance. Keep track of the news flow as you head towards your draft to understand how the Braves rotation is shaking out. We'll keep you updated here and in our Draft Advisory Software.
Jair Jurrjens has been less than impressive this spring (9.72 ERA in 3 outings), and that has caused many to re-evaluate the Braves' presumed Opening Day starter. Faith in his performance level has never been particularly solid to begin with, and for good reason because Jurrjens' results have been better than his indicators for much of his career. High LOB%s and low BAHIPs were the hallmark of his strong campaigns in 2009 and the healthy part of 2011 and perennially borderline K rates continue to erode confidence. Maybe his spring performance erodes his price to the point where he becomes a decent bet to pay back your investment in him. Health is the big issue however and we will watch the rest of the spring with an eye towards figuring out where he is physically. Even if healthy however, looking for another sub-3.00 ERA season is simply a poor bet. A level LOB% (69.3%) and BAHIP (.300) in 2010 produced a 4.64 ERA with otherwise "normal" indicators. That's a worse case scenario though and it was the result of 3 particularly bad outings that added up to 22 runs in in 12IP. In 2011 and 2009, Jair allowed 6 runs only twice in 57 starts and they came as he was struggling with his knee before being shut down last year. The truth here, as it almost always is, is somewhere in between. Should he be able to answer the bell for 25+ starts, 10 wins and a 3.50-3.70 ERA is probably what you are buying. Don't pay for more.
Jeff Niemann seems to be closing the deal on the Rays' 5th starter slot despite a rough-ish outing against the Jays on Friday. One a high-level prospect, Jeff's potential has never really materialized as a pro. He's had health issues to be sure, but he has often been his own worst enemy as well. Entering his age 29 season it's time to stop looking for him to turn a corner. Sluggish K rates, propped up on sluggish SwStr rates have dulled his results. Despite a favorable LOB of 73-ish% over the last three years and a favorable .278 BAHIP last year, a tendency to give up key HRs keep his ERA hovering around 4.00 (@4.06), where it's been throughout his MLB career. There's no indication that changes this year. He'll fall within a few runs of 4.00 depending on how many homers he allows and how much his increasing GB% allows a solid defense to help him out. 25+ starts could produce 10 wins and that aforementioned 4.00-ish ERA.
Niether Reid Brignac nor Sean Rodriguez seems to be taking control of the battle for SS in Tampa. Brignac is hitting well, but the Rays want to see how he handles the higher-level pitching that he'll face in the final weeks of spring training as major league starters work deeper into games. Brignac has more at stake here as he still has an option. Elliot Johnson does not and the Rays would like to keep the switch hitting utility player in the roster and out of waivers. Still it doesn't look like either Brignac or Rodriguez will win the lion's share of the job and a platoon between the two players seems to be the most likely outcome here. In either case, neither of these guys should be in your lineup on Opening Day.
Third base 1, Miguel Cabrera 0 ... Cabrera left yesterday's ST tilt with the Phillies after a Hunter Pence rocket took a tricky hop and hit the Tiger's slugger in the face (it's good to see Hunter's BAHIP mojo is still intact). A good sized gash and plenty of blood. Right now it looks like no long-term damage was done, physically at least.There's a good bet however that there are some lasting psychological issues that could spring from this. He left under his own power and seems to have survived the incident which resulted in stitches and an X-ray. This will likely cost him a few days, but right now it doesn't look like this should effect his current draft status.
There is some early trade interest in John Lannan and the two seemingly most interested suitors, the Tigers and Red Sox would mean a league change. The Nationals say they aren't actively shopping John and his $5M salary depresses his value a bit. Normally his elite GB% would make him attractive as a back-end starter, but batters have been squaring him up at the rate of a 20+% LD percentage for two years and 328 IP now. His 54.1% GB% last year, aided his 73.1% LOB%, fueled his 3.70 ERA, but it takes a leap of faith to lean on that connection in the face of a career 6.2% SwStr%, a 4.71 K/9, and a 3.38 BB/9. I'm not willing to take that leap. That may play somewhat, at times, in the AL Central, but even with his GB rates what they historically are, that much contact can make for some long night's in the AL East or the NL East for that matter.
Carlos Quentin underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee (meniscus tear) on Monday. He had the tear repaired and some loose cartilage removed. Things went as expected and the original ETR of 4-6 weeks remains intact.
Bad news on the Joakim Soria front. The Royals say an MRI revealed ulnar collateral ligament damage in his right elbow. The final prognosis is unclear as is the prospect of TJS. Soria will see Dr. Yocum today and we'll know more after that, but he is off the grid for now, that much is clear. Jonathan Broxton and Greg Holland would appear to be the next in line for saves.
Holland exhibited the entire range of a closer's skill set in 2011 fanning 11.1/9 over 60 IP, thanks to a savory 16.6% SwStr%, while walking 2.8/9, allowing just 3 HRs (0.45/9). Opponents hit just .174 off Greg (.250 BAHIP) with a 16.2% LD%. All of his indicators held well throughout the season. I love him as a closer if he proves to have the mental make up for it (there are no indications he doesn't). My one worry is that he relies heavily on his slider, 39.5% last year up from 22.1% in 2010. That's a lot of sliders, not that he's not extremely effective with it. I just worry a bit about his long-term health. You can't live like that however, especially in single season leagues. (In fact forget I said it ... unless of course he blows his elbow out, in which case, remember where you heard it) Keep an eye on this. Holland's 2012 value may have just spiked.
Alfredo Aceves is doing all he can to nail down the 5th starter job in Boston allowing 1 run in 9 IP over 3 games and 1 start. He's allowed 5 hits without a walk, and fanned 8 (0.56 WHIP) holding opponents to a .156 OBA. Alfredo threw 114 good innings for the Red Sox last year. His 80% LOB held his ERA to 2.61, helped by a 5.3% HR/FB and a .231 BAHIP. On the plus side he's coaxed some soft contact, a 15.3% LD% last year and he brings 4 mature pitches to the mound including a good change. I'm not convinced however that his stuff withstands the scrutiny of a third trip through the batting order. It's a small sample of course, but his 5.14 ERA as a starter, (+3.09), his 5.5 K rate as starter (-0.91), 5.5 BB rate (+2.7), and .247 OBA (+0.56) would seem to bear out that theory. If not, it's certainly reason to be skeptical about Alfredo's prospects as a starter. Take a "show me" approach here.
Lance Lynn limited the Braves to 1 run on 2 hits over 5 IP on Monday. Lynn has put himself in position to take advantage of any starts that Chris Carpenter loses due to a DL stint at the start of the season. Lance has been basically FB (93, with good sinking motion)/CB as an MLB pitcher, mixing in a slider and change in very small quantities as a reliever. We'll know more about the quality and maturity of those pitches pretty early. Worst case scenario here is that once the Cards stretch him out here in the spring they may decide to return him to a starter developmental track, and return him to the minors to pursue it. That would cost those of us in leagues that score holds a valuable reliever.
Another less-than-compelling outing for Julio Teheran against the Cardinals on Monday, 2 runs in 4 IP on 5 hits, 2 walks and a HR with 4 Ks. Julio has not looked dialed in at all this spring. His mechanics and control have been spotty and he appears to be pushing a bit too hard. Julio has probably lost his opportunity to start the season in the Braves rotation. His long-term merit as a prospect remains intact however.
No matter which side of the Pacific you are pitching on you still have to deal with the strike zone. Yesterday Hu Darvish had his issues, issuing out 3 walks in 4 IP. Hu says some mechanical changes that the Rangers are trying to install (related to his windup, mostly) have been troublesome, and that has led to some of the inconsistency that was on full display yesterday. I don't find that worrisome. In fact with Nolan orbiting the organization, I have full confidence in the Rangers ability to proactively help Darvish adapt. Darvish limited the Brewers to 1 hit (perhaps not so ironically to Noricha Aoki, an RBI bouncer) and fanned 4. He remains on track.
