Middle Infield News: What To Expect From Asdrubal Cabrera - In 2010, Asdrubal Cabrera played in 97 games for the Indians and hit three HRs to go along with a .071 ISO and .346 SLG%. So, naturally, all Cabrera did last season was smack 25 HRs, post a .187 ISO, slug .460, steal 17 bases, score 87 runs and drive in 92. Just what you expected, right? It's OK if you were part of the 99% who didn't see Cabrera's breakout year coming. Now that Cabrera is a hot commodity, will he be able to reproduce his 2011 numbers again in 2012? Based on his career numbers, the steals and runs should be sustainable but expect a drop in HRs and RBI. Prior to 2011, Cabrera had shown decent power for a SS (we're not talking about a David Eckstein-type hitter here) with a .421 SLG% in 2007 and a .438 mark in 2009. He also had twice recorded ISOs in the .130s. Then, last season, Cabrera was able to elevate more pitches as evidenced by his 7% FB rate increase. With more flyballs (and in his age-25 season), Cabrera's HR totals skyrocketed. The caveat is that of his 25 bombs last year, a whopping 15 were of the "just enough" variety. That stat, coupled with Cabrera's second half (when he owned an OPS of just .729), leads me to believe we're looking at a 15-20 HR player instead of someone who can smack 25 or more jacks in 2012. A shortstop who can help your team in all five traditional stat categories - Cabrera owns a .281 career BA - is a valuable commodity. Just be cautious of overpaying for Cabrera based on his 2011 power numbers.
Understanding The Indians' Outfield: A Lesson in Dart Throwing - If you used to play regularly in a major league outfield in the past, say, five seasons, the Tribe's front office likely called your agent this offseason. With Shin-Soo Choo and Michael Brantley locks for playing time, and Grady Sizemore returning on a one-year deal, the following players were expected to compete for reserve spots: Shelley Duncan, Aaron Cunningham, Felix Pie, Fred Lewis, Russ Canzler and Ryan Spilborghs. Now that Sizemore is done for at least 12 weeks (and let's be real here, perhaps much, much longer), one or two of the players from the aforementioned list will likely get significant playing time, either as the lone starter or in a platoon, for that left field position. I wrote about Canzler over the weekend and if he gets the nod, then there's certainly power upside there. However, my bet is the Tribe goes with some combination of Lewis, Duncan and Cunningham. With a .751 career OPS, Lewis won't kill the Tribe as an every day starter and can draw a walk (10% walk rate in '11). Duncan owns a .441 career SLG% but really can't play any sort of defense and Cunningham has a .741 OPS versus lefties while also being just 25. None of those guys will do much for your fantasy team (unless you're in a really, really deep league). As a Tribe fan, pardon me for not being all giddy inside thinking about Cleveland's left field situation in 2012.
Deep League Second Baseman Options: Jose Altuve - There's been a lot of discussion on various fantasy baseball blogs and websites around the potential for the Astros' Jose Altuve. Some see a promising young second baseman who could be a nice sleeper in standard leagues. And others, like myself, see a player who has a low ceiling and minimal chance for impact in 2012. Last season, Altuve had 234 plate appearances, batting .276 to go along with seven stolen bases (in 10 tries). Keeping in mind he was a mere 21-year old, the BA isn't too shabby at all. The concerns start to arise around Altuve's plate patience and power. He walked just five times during his entire major league campaign last year which equates to a 2.1% walk rate. That is very bad. What's also bad is his .081 ISO and .357 SLG%. Altuve struggled with power last season because he hit half of all batted balls on the ground. While his speed enables some infield base hits, it's going to take time for the youngster to learn how to elevate and start to drive the ball. With 2012 being his first full big league season, Altuve is going to experience serious growing pains and we should have a much better idea of his long-term fantasy potential by season's end. For now, he's a source of steals and not much else in deep leagues.
Houston's Backstop: Just How Bad Are The Options? - The Astros have three catcher options in camp this year with veterans Chris Snyder and Humberto Quintero joining 24-year old Jason Castro in pursuit of the starting gig. It's a bit of a surprise that Castro, who missed the entire 2011 season with a torn ACL, has progressed enough with his rehab to have already started playing in spring training games. Of the three, Castro seems to have the inside track with Snyder the likely backup. In the minors, Castro hasn't shown much upside with his bat, owning an OPS over .800 in just one stint at high A ball. He also managed to hit .293 at AA in 2009. If Castro does indeed secure the primary catching duties, he's still not worth much in any league format. Meanwhile, the guy I'd consider adding in deep leagues (if he takes the starting job) is Snyder, who also happens to have the best track record of the bunch. He clobbered double digit HRs in 2007, 2008 and 2010 before hitting .271/.376/.396 in 119 plate appearances with the Pirates last season.
Sleeper In The Outfield: Allen Craig - The Cardinals' added Carlos Beltran in the offseason to help replace the offensive production they lost when Albert Pujols went to the Angels. But don't forget about the offensive (and therefore fantasy) potential of another St. Louis outfielder who should return to the lineup in early May. Allen Craig underwent surgery in November to repair a small fracture in his right kneecap and he's definitely missing Opening Day. However, once he returns, Craig can be a solid outfielder in 10-team, mixed leagues. In 219 plate appearances last season, Craig hit 11 HRs, batted .315 and posted an impressive .240 ISO while also drawing the occasional walk. He's still just 27 for most of this season and has a solid minor league track record with three seasons of 20+ HRs. Once he returns, Beltran should be the everyday centerfielder with Craig in left and John Jay moved to a fourth outfielder role. If he had a full season, I'd feel really good about Craig hitting 20+ HRs and still expect 15-17 assuming he begins playing May 1.
Bullpen News: Jason Motte Is Good - Quick story about Jason Motte. A couple years back I was in Philadelphia for a Phillies game against the Cardinals. During warm-ups, my buddies and I were in the outfield bleachers, watching BP. A ball got hit right at us and one-hopped the wall before dropping onto the warning track where Motte picked it up. A bunch of kids started yelling to Motte to throw the ball up to them. Motte heard the kids and turned to flip the ball to them, but instead faked the throw and turned to toss the ball back toward the infield. He found the whole situation funny while the kids were disappointed. The moral of the story is that Motte is kind of a jerk. That said, he's a darn good relief pitcher who has posted ERAs of 2.24 and 2.25 the past two seasons. The big right hander has good strikeout numbers, limits the walks and rarely allows HRs. He also improved his GB rate by 4% in 2011. With the Cardinals likely to contend again for the division crown, Motte is a solid No. 2 closer in most league formats.
Michael Bourn - The Braves' outfielder should once again be a very solid fantasy contributor in 2012 and has a strong chance of reaching the 60 steals mark for the third time in the past four seasons. Since 2009, Bourn has been fairly consistent with his BA, strikeout rate, OBP, steal rate and SLG% so I feel confident he's a minimal risk for significant regression. The only place he might slip a bit is his BA which was .294 last season thanks to a .369 BABIP. However, keep in mind Bourn maintained a .366 BABIP in 2009 so it's not crazy to think he can post another BABIP in the .340-.360 range in 2012, which should assure his BA remains in the upper .280s/low .290s.
J.J. Hardy - I still can't believe J.J. Hardy hit 30 HRs last season, especially considering he hit six HRs in 2010. Hardy's now had three seasons where he's smacked at least 24 HRs and posted a SLG% above .463. The biggest cause for Hardy's monster season was his ability to increase his FB rate by 10% while pushing his HR/FB rate back to where it was during his best seasons in 2007 and 2008. He also managed to record a career-high .222 ISO. With Brian Roberts potentially unable to play at the start of the season, Hardy would likely slot into the leadoff position. He remains a risky option at SS thanks to his inconsistent performances throughout his career.
Ricky Romero - Ricky Romero tossed three shutout innings on Sunday against the Braves, allowing just one hit, walking zero and striking out four. Romero owned an impressive 2.92 ERA in 2011 but he's unlikely to maintain that success this season considering his high strand rate (79%) and low BABIP (.242). Romero's FIP of 4.20 also points toward a pitcher who should experience more setbacks this year. The strong GB rate will help mitigate some of the expected regression, so Romero remains a solid No. 3 SP in 10-team leagues and a No. 2 in deeper formats.
Jon Lester - The Red Sox ace was a bit wild Sunday, issuing four free passes in four innings while allowing just a run with two strikeouts. As Lester enters his seventh big league season, we have a clear understanding of what to expect from the southpaw. His ERA should be in the 3.25-3.50 range, he'll post a strikeout rate in the mid-8.00s to mid-9.00s, he'll give up fewer than a HR per game and his walk rate will sit in the mid-3.00s. Oh, and he should be a lock for 190 innings and a bunch of wins. One of the better SP options in fantasy although certainly not top-10 material.
Carlos Santana - In his first full season, Carlos Santana was as good as advertised with 27 HRs, .217 ISO, 14% walk rate and .457 SLG%. He struggled against lefties with a .736 OPS while crushing righties to the tune of a .964 OPS. The one big disappointment from Santana was his .239 BA, which was largely a product of a low LD rate (15%) and high GB rate (44%). I expect him to flip those two numbers a bit in 2012 which should help push his BA back into the .260-ish range. He turns just 26 in April so there remains a huge upside here.
Martin Prado - Martin Prado had a rough 2011 as his BA dropped from .307 in 2010 to just .260 last season. That's what happens when you stop hitting line drives. Sure, Prado's BABIP took a massive dive from .335 to just .266 but that's mostly because the Braves' second baseman/third baseman/outfielder posted a 14% LD rate in '11 after owning a 21% rate in '10. He hit 51% of his balls in play on the ground too, which certainly didn't help his BABIP. The reason to think Prado bounces back is because his career LD % is 19% and, before last season, he hadn't posted a LD % under 19% since his rookie season in 2006. Prado is definitely a nice buy-low candidate right now.
Jimmy Rollins - At 33-years old, Jimmy Rollins shouldn't be expected to be the same player he was just a few years ago. His numbers have started to drop recently as he's no longer a reliable source of runs or BA. While he did manage 16 HRs last season, his ISO of .131 was the exact same as 2010 and far below his 2009 mark of .173. It also doesn't help Rollins that the players around him are either injured or aging as well, meaning his runs and RBI aren't likely to improve much from last season. There's still some value here as long as you don't overpay for the name brand.
Bryce Harper - On Monday, and for the fifth straight game, Bryce Harper did not start in the Nationals' spring training lineup due to a tight left calf. The Nats are smart to take their time in bringing Harper back and manager Davy Johnson went as far as saying the missed playing time will not affect Harper's chances of making the Opening Day roster. Expect to see Harper back in the lineup by the end of the week. This minor setback doesn't affect his value.
Jim Thome - The 41-year old slugger manned first base on Monday for the first time since 2007, playing four innings. Thome was unable to make a play on the first ball hit in his direction but was not charged an error. Thome's fantasy owners should root for two outcomes: first, that his back holds up in the coming days and, two, that he isn't as God-awful as many believe he'll be. If he can stay healthy and hold his own defensively, it will mean a much greater shot at extra ABs. The power is still there for the veteran but playing on a National League club makes owning Thome a risky move for fantasy managers.
Joe Saunders - The Diamondbacks' southpaw left his start on Monday after just three batters when the Indians' Carlos Santana lined a ball off the pitcher's left shin. After the game, Saunders said he could have stayed in if needed, but didn't want to take any chances since it was spring training. He expects to make his next start, although he'll need to be cleared by Arizona's medical staff after they check the swelling on Tuesday.
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