Oakland A's
Jarrod Parker Expectations: Parker is currently projected as one of Oakland's starters because of the voids left by Dallas Braden and Brett Anderson's injuries. Parker, the centerpiece in the Trevor Cahill deal, features a fastball that averages 92 mph along with a strong slider and change-up. We are currently projecting him to finish with a n ERA of 4.09, a strikeout rate of 7.16 K/9 and WHIP of 1.36. 2011 was a successful season for Parker considering he did not have any setbacks coming back from Tommy John surgery, and he produced a 7.71 K/9 despite not having great command of his change-up and slider for most of the season. He produced a strong groundball rate of 56 percent at double-A and he has a strong history of being able to keep the ball in the park. Pitching at the Coliseum will only benefit him, and I personally believe he can beat some our projections, especially if he can keep his walk rate close to 3.0 BB/9.
Third Base Opening: Scott Sizemore's season ending knee injury created a hole at third base, and catching prospect Josh Donaldson looks to benefit the most. The 26 year-old is now the front-runner for the job, and he has shown enough power to stick at the position. Donaldson posted a .238 and .178 ISO over the last two seasons in triple-A, in addition to walking at a 12 percent rate for his pro career. His eligibility at the catching position in certain leagues gives him added value, and he is definitely a player to keep an eye out for in deep and AL only leagues. Donaldson has the arm to play the hot corner, but his range will dictate whether he can play the position consistently. His high strikeout rate will probably keep him in the .240-.255 range, but his ability to steal bases will offset the average.
New York Mets
Rotation Woes: Don't take any chances on the back end of the Mets rotation.
Dillon Gee (SP-NYM)- Gee started off strong in 2011, but finished with a 5.42 second half ERA. Different projection systems have him improving on those numbers, but our software has Gee taking a significant step back. Not surprisingly, Gee pitched much better in New York posting a 3.17 ERA compared to a 5.74 ERA on the road. With CitiField's new dimensions, owners should expect a higher ERA. Additionally, Gee won't be able to maintain another season with a .270 BABIP, and a 19.4 percent line drive rate indicates that low number was mostly a product of luck. Expect to his ground ball percentage decrease, as his 47 percent rate was his best in three seasons. Gee's subpar control (4.00 BB/9 for his major league career) is just as concerning. Considering most factors broke in favor of Gee in 2011, 2012 looks to be a disaster.
Mike Pelfrey (SP-NYM)- 2011 proved that Pelfrey's 2010 season was an aberration, and that owners can expect some more of the same in 2012. Pelfrey has seen his ground ball rate and strikeout rate decline in each of the last two seasons. At this point in his career, stating the truth that Pelfrey has less fantasy value than Gee, is the ultimate indictment. He has shown in ability to refine any of his off-speed pitches, and his splitter was one of the worst pitches in the majors in 2011 according to Fangraphs. His 5.5 percent swinging strike rate was the third worst in baseball among qualified starters, and his 5.49 road ERA is more indicative of his abilities. Obviously, CitiField won't be the safe haven it once was, and that will result in an ERA close to 5.00 this season. Poor defense range at second base and third base will only hurt Pelfrey if he is able to improve his ground ball rate.
Washington Nationals
Ian Desmond's Last Stand: Desmond took a step back last year producing a slash line of .253/.298/.358 along with 25 stolen bases and eight home runs. Davey Johnson stated earlier in Spring Training that he expects Desmond to be the leadoff hitter, but this might be Desmond's last season to convince the Nationals he can be an everyday shortstop. The organization is high on Steve Lomardozzi at second base, and Danny Espinosa could go back to his old stomping ground at short. Desmond's greatest asset is his speed. He should be able to swipe more than 20 bases once again, but he continues to show a poor eye at the plate. It is doubtful than he can produce an OBP over .315, and his high strikeout rate will prevent him from hitting above .270. I would suggest drafting a capable backup at the position in case Desmond gets off to a slow start.
Gio Gonzalez Goes to Washington: While leaving the cozy confines of the Coliseum will slightly affect his ERA, but a move to the National League will improve the lefty's strikeout totals. Gonzalez improved his strikeout rate last season because of a higher swinging strike rate. His curveball was still very strong, but the higher rate was a result of a career high average fastball velocity (92.2 mph). Gonzalez's ability to generate strikeouts and ground balls (47.5 percent last season) overshadow his issues with command. Look for a walk rate below 4.00 in 2012, but I believe we may see an ERA closer to 3.30. His strand rate has been to his benefit in each of the last two seasons, and his BABIP is due to increase with the move from Oakland. Even with the slight regression, he is still pitching in a pitcher's park and has been extremely durable over the last few seasons.
Around the League
Michael Pineda (SP-NYY)- Pineda pitched well during his spring training debut recording two strikeouts and allowing just one hit in two innings of work. Scouts said that his fastball was in the 89-92 mph range and that his slider was somewhat flat. However, the effectiveness of his change-up was the talk during the postgame. Larry Rothschild indicated that he changed Pineda's grip, and Russell Martin emphasized the pitch during Pineda's two innings on Monday. If he can continue to pitch effectively with the pitch, it will give him a weapon to neutralize left-handed hitters in Yankee Stadium. Pineda had an xFIP of 3.82 against LHH last season compared to a 3.24 xFIP against right-handed hitters, and the fact that he is a fly ball pitcher has many worried about his success in his new home park. Even with those fears, we are still projecting him to finish with similar numbers in 2012.
Ryan Madson (RP-CIN)- Madson has been unavailable for the Reds first couple of Spring Training games because of soreness in his elbow. The Reds are not concerned about the soreness, and Dusty Baker stated that he believed Madson would be available in the next couple of days. Despite the injury, Madson is one of the safer options at closer because of his ability to throw strikes (2.37 BB/9 in 2011), induce ground balls (48.8 percent in 2011) and to strikeout more than a batter per inning (9.20 K/9 in 2011). His change-up remains one of the best in the game, and his average fastball velocity of 94 mph was the second highest of his career. It is unlikely that he will produce an ERA lower than 2.50 again since he will not be able to replicate his 3.7 percent HR/FB ratio again.
Carl Crawford (LF-BOS)- Bobby Valentine and Ben Cherington told reporters yesterday that it is unrealistic to think that Crawford will ready in time for Opening Day. Crawford has some inflammation in his surgically repaired left wrist, and that he will not able to swing or throw for five to seven days. This news has to be somewhat unsettling considering Crawford is coming off the worst season of his career, and wrist injuries can notoriously nag players for an indefinite period of time. It is more than likely than Crawford heads to the DL for the first few days of the season just to get some extra at-bats. I still expect a bounce back season for Crawford with a .290/.330/.450 type of line. His average took a hit last season because of a career high strikeout rate (19.3 percent) despite having a similar swinging strike rate. If he can stay healthy, he will produce more than 15 home runs, but I think his days of 45 plus stolen bases are over.
Josh Johnson (SP-MIA)- In his first game since May of 2011, Johnson pitched 1.2 scoreless innings in which he struck out two, walked one and allowed two hits. Johnson's fastball sat at 89-93 mph during his appearance, but those numbers should increase as he continues to build up more arm strength. Johnson has the stuff to be one of the best pitchers in baseball, but health has been a major obstacle. There is risk in drafting him, which is why we have him ranked as the seventieth best starter available. We project him pitching 198 innings, but it may be best to assume he will make 20 to 25 starts for the season. Either way he will pitch to a sub 3.00 ERA while striking out close to a hitter per inning. I wouldn't be worried if his velocity is down this season. He averaged the 93.8 mph and still produced a strong strikeout rate.
Jimmy Rollins (SS-PHI)- Rollins looked like his old self on Monday against the Yankees. He collected two hits, walked once and stole two bases in his four innings of action. Despite his decline, Rollins ranks as one of the seven best shortstops of 2012. He should produce a similar line in 2012 (.268/.330/.390) along with 25-30 stolen bases. His fly ball rate indicates that he should be able to reach 15 home runs again this season. In addition, I was encouraged by how well Rollins hit the ball last season (20.2 percent line drive rate) despite a decline in ISO (.131). The Phillies continue to use him in the leadoff role, so he should also provide more than 80 runs scored. Unlike many of his counterparts at his position, Rollins is a known quantity on draft day providing above average numbers in two major categories for the position.
Jair Jurrjens (SP-ATL)- Jurrjens struggled in his first spring training start of the season on Monday against the Astros. He did not record a strikeout and allowed two runs on three hits and one walk in two innings of work. Jurrjens mostly threw his fastball in the 87-89 mph range, which could indicate that his career worst 89.1 mph average fastball is now the norm. He will not be able to replicate his 2011 ERA of 2.92 since he benefited from an 81 percent strand rate and a BABIP of .262 (21.4 percent line drive rate). Health is also a major concern as 2011 was his seconded straight season to end with an injury If he can stay healthy, he should be able to put together a season where he records 12 plus wins with a 3.70-3.85 ERA, however, he is someone I am actively staying away from during my own drafts.
Albert Pujols (1B-LAA)- Pujols went 2-for-3 with a double and a RBI in his spring debut against the A's on Monday. We are expecting a rebound from Albert this season, and Anthony has him rated second in terms of VAM. 2011 was Pujols' least productive season in terms of wOBA (.385). This was in due part due to poor luck on balls put in play (career low .277 BABIP), his wrist injury and a career worst walk rate (9.4 percent). Pujols chased more pitches than ever (31.7 percent), but one year does not signify a trend. If 2011 was Pujols at his worst, perspective owners should feel comfortable drafting the slugger either first or second. The career high ground ball rate that he produced in 2012 (44.8 percent) should not be a cause of concern. He produced a 49 percent rate through May when he was known to be dealing with a hamstring injury.
Shaun Marcum (SP-MIL)- The Brewers announced yesterday that Marcum will not pitch on Saturday because of shoulder inflammation and as a result will be behind the rest of the starters in Brewers camp. Ron Roenicke also indicated that Marcum might not be able to be stretched out to 90 pitches before the end of Spring Training. The Brewers still do not believe this is a serious injury, but anyone drafting Marcum should know he might not pitch during the first week. He had the same ailment last spring training, and still got off to a great start. Just about every projection system out there, including ours, has him finishing with a 3.50-3.75 ERA and 7 to 7.50 K/9. If he can stay healthy, he will be a strong pick in the middle rounds for standard leagues. His WHIPs over the last two seasons rank among the top 25 among starting pitchers.
Alex Gordon (LF-KC)- Gordon went 1-for-2 with a two run home run and a walk against the Rangers on Monday. He is looking to produce another strong season after finally breaking out in 2011, but it is key to not pay for last year's performance. Gordon will not hit .300 again, since his 2011 BABIP of .358 will not be repeated even though he produced a 22 percent line drive rate. This does not mean Gordon will become a bust, but his value is not nearly as high with his eligibility being limited to the outfield. However, his strikeout rate will keep his average around .270. He should produce similar home run numbers since his HR/FB ratio of 12.6 percent was line with the two previous seasons.
Jay Bruce (RF-CIN)- Bruce went 2-for-2 with a walk on Monday against the Indians. His power makes him one of the top 50 players this season, and we are currently projecting him to hit the fifth most home runs this season (34). At 25, Bruce has yet to hit his peak years, and his ability to hit for power again left-handed pitching makes him one of the best bets in the outfield. His strikeout rate will keep him from hitting above .280, but he is a better average hitter than his .256 average in 2011 indicates. His .297 BABIP is likely to increase, which should lead him to finish with at least a .265//345/.490 line along with 90 plus RBI and seven to ten stolen bases. There is still room to grow for Bruce, and I expect 2012 to be his best year yet
Follow me on twitter: @enehs
