Toronto Blue Jays
No Concerns of a Sophomore Slump for Brett Lawrie
Last year as a rookie Brett Lawrie burst onto the scene posting an impressive .293/.373/.580 line in 171 plate appearances. This wasn't a complete surprise as Lawrie, at age 21, hit .353/.415/.661 (hitter's park however) at AAA in 329 plate appearances, his first ever plate appearances at that level. That should quell some people's concerns over whether or not Lawrie's numbers were a fluke. While we simply can't prorate Lawrie's 2011 numbers over a full season, his indicators did support the production. Lawrie posted a whopping .287 ISO, showing decent enough plate discipline (.52 EYE, impressively low 22.3% chase rate), raw power (17 HR/FB%) and loft (45 FB%) to make me feel pretty good about this emerging power hitter. Another thing that helps Lawrie's base value is that he steals bases. Of our projected top 20 3B, only Hanley Ramirez (25 steals) is projected to steal more bases than Lawrie (21). Lawrie stole 20 bases between the Majors and AAA last year (just 112 games), and he stole 30 bases at AA the year prior. Given Lawrie's impressive power/steal combination he is unlikely to be a sophomore bust. Treat him like a top 10 3B with top 5 upside.
Will Colby Rasmus ever be a star?
Colby Rasmus is an admittedly very tough player to evaluate. Looking at last season's indicators, there's nothing we can point to and say "Ah - Once that fixes he will turn it around." Rasmus posted a really ugly .225/.298/.391 line that actually got worse when he got out of St. Louis and into Toronto. The LD rate was low (16.5%), Infield FB% high (15.5%) and raw power just not there (8.3 HR/FB%). All of those were career lows. So if we are evaluating Rasmus from a strictly statistical perspective, there is very little reason to hope for a rebound. However, there is still reason for hope. Rasmus enters the 2012 season at age 25 (so still very young) with the background of a former top prospect. He also has shown skills at the Major League Level posting a .222 ISO and 11.8 BB% at the tender age of 23. Despite the season long slump last year - his plate discipline did not completely collapse as his .43 EYE is right in line with his career mark. So, there's some hope that with a full off-season in Toronto (outside of the turmoil that surrounded him in St. Louis) Rasmus will be able to make use of the tools that once had him pegged as a top prospect and have reared their head from time to time in his Major League career. Rasmus has clearly played himself outside of top 25 OF status, and our software currently has right around the 50th best OF option. I'm a bit more optimistic that the reasons for hope will come to fruition and plan on targeting Rasmus after the top 25-30 OF's on the board have gone.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Is Alex Presley a good cheap speed option?
Our ADP doesn't have Alex Presley being drafted very early (23rd round in a 12 team league), and he lasted until the 28th round in a draft I did last night with 12 teams. There is very little risk taking anyone at this point in the draft, but what is the upside with Presley? Not high enough for me. I usually like to take a late round flier on someone who can be a homerun in a single category, if not across the board. And while Presley does have speed, it is not out of this world speed. Presley has never stolen 30 bases in a season at any point in his professional career. Last year, he stole 9 in 52 games, putting him on pace for right around 30. In other words, with a full season's worth of playing time and playing productively, Presley's best case scenario is 30 steals - right around 1 a week. I'd rather take a guy who may have a lot more obstructive path to playing time but if he hits is more likely to make a significant impact - like Tony Campana. In the minors in 2009 Campana stole 66 bases and then 48 in 2010. In just 155 plate appearances with the Cubs last year Campana swiped 24 bags. Now, if Campana's best case scenario plays out we are talking 50-60 stolen bases. My point here is that late in the draft I am less worried about overall, most likely value of a player and more worried about the upside, best case scenario. There's just not a lot of room in my draft plans for a guy like Presley who isn't reliable or good enough to be drafted as a fantasy starter or first backup and lacks the 1-category stud upside of some other outfielders (Campana, Revere, Davis, Bourgeois) who may also be available.
What is in store for Garrett Jones?
After breaking onto the scene in 2009 and posting some monster numbers in a half season (.293, 21 homers), Garrett Jones has disappointed - failing to come close to that type of production since. Now it looks like Jones is headed for a platoon role this season. The Pirates have not given up on former top prospect Pedro Alvarez so newcomer Casey McGehee will likely start some games at first base. This is not a surprise. Against left handers last season, Jones had just a .187 batting average with an absurdly terrible EYE of .10. His ISO was just .132 against left handed pitching compared to .200 against right handed pitching. So, you really are only drafting Jones in very, very deep formats or NL only leagues; do not delude yourself into thinking he has a chance of becoming a productive everyday player at age 30. He could also be useful in daily leagues where you can afford to play him only when he starts against right handers. He had an .808 OPS against right handers last season so that definitely plays on a daily basis.
Kansas City Royals
Felipe Paulino: A good late round option if you need strikeouts
If you listened to the latest Fantistics podcast, Felipe Paulino was the topic of some great discussion. In a draft the other day, I found myself in the position of having a pretty solid staff - particularly in WHIP. However, I was lacking some K upside. If you find yourself in this position, Paulino is a great late round option. First of all, Paulino will get you K's. He has a career K/9 of 8.28 between starting and relieving. Last year Paulino struck out 8.59 batters per 9, but most importantly he finished the year striking out 116 batters in 120.1 IP over 20 starts. This year Paulino should see an increase in innings as he will head into the season as a starter, so he is a good late bet to reach 150 strikeouts (we have 170 projected). The second reason Paulino is a good late draft pick is his overall upside to go along with his strikeout skills. Paulino posted a 4.46 ERA last season but his xFIP was 3.73. He wasn't exactly unlucky as his BABIP of .341, while very high, is right in line with his career mark. Still, there is a chance Paulino's luck on balls in play improves allowing him to lower his WHIP, his ERA to drop to expected levels and making 10 wins a possibility.
Keep an Eye on the Prospects
The Royals impressive farm system has been one of the team's more interesting topics for me to write about the past couple of pre-seasons. This year their best prospect is 21 YO outfielder Wil Myers. According to our prospect guru Dave Regan, Myers is the number 7 best offensive prospect for fantasy purposes. Reports on Myers in the Arizona Fall League were very positive as he was named to the AFL's Top Prospects Team. His overall line from AA last season isn't all that impressive (.254/.353/.393), but he hit .310/.412/.569 in August. In his minor league career Myers has posted impressive plate discipline numbers (EYE's generally around 1, BB% around 15). He will begin the year in the minors, but Myers could work his way up to the big club by the end of the year.
Other MLB News
Michael Pineda SP (NYY) - There was some hot Twitter debate surrounding Michael Pineda and whether or not concern over his fastball velocity was warranted. The debate started due to Pineda being clocked at around 88-91 mph; his average fastball velocity last season was 94 mph. The reaction to this ranged from people overreacting to people being blindly dismissive. As is the case with most things, the proper reaction lies somewhere in the middle. This shouldn't affect our rankings of Pineda just yet, but if 2-3 more Spring starts go buy and Pineda has not seen his velocity come back up to normal levels concern is definitely warranted. A 3-6 drop in mph is a huge deal, especially for a FB pitcher like Pineda (just a 36.3 GB%) moving from a pitcher's park to hitter's park.
Buster Posey C (SF) - Buster Posey is expected to make his Spring Debut later on this week. He has not seen any game action since breaking a bone in his ankle covering home plate last May. Despite all the time off, we are projecting Posey to be the 3rd best fantasy catcher. At 24 he is a young stud at an offensively weakened position. Posey should begin the year as the Giants' leadoff hitter, and we have him pegged to hit .290 with 20 homers, 72 RS, 78 RBI and 9 SB.
Johann Santana SP (NYM) - Good news out of Mets' camp; Santana reportedly looked good in his Spring debut throwing in the high 80's and reaching 90 mph. I had been wary of drafting Santana (ADP in the 18th round in a standard league), but this news does remove some health concern, albeit it is just one outing. Don't move Santana too far up the draft boards, though as his CY Young days are long gone even if he is healthy. His past two seasons pitching, Santana posted xFIP's of 4.05 and 4.13. His actual ERA was better each season thanks to some low HR/FB% but that is less likely to happen now that the fences in Citi have been moved in. Also, Santana's BB/9 has grown each season in the past 5 years and K/9 decreased each of the past 3 years. In other words, we have to be pleased with Santana's health at this point but must keep in mind that even those positive reports aren't going to reverse his decline in skill.
Matt Thornton RP (CHW) - All the talk about rookie Addison Reed is leading to Matt Thornton being underrated. While Reed is the future in Chicago, Thornton is more than likely going to get the first crack at the closer's job this season, and he does have skills. The past 4 seasons, Thornton has not once posted an FIP above 2.75. Last year his FIP of 2.62 was driven by a 48.8 GB%, 3 K/BB ratio and 6.5 HR/FB% (which he has been able to keep around this mark for 3 seasons). Despite a drop in K rate, Thornton should see a sizeable rebound in his strand rate (61.2% last season, 74.7% career) which will help bring the ERA down to around 3 if not below.
Cole Hamels SP (PHI) - Hamels is a sure fire top 15 starting pitcher as he just continues to get better and better. Last season his K/BB ratio grew from 3.46 to a career best (and elite level) 4.41. Hamels' weakness used to be that he was a bit FB risky, but that has changed over the past four seasons as evidenced by his upward trending GB rates: 39.5/40.4/45.4/52.3. Also, over the past 2 seasons Hamels has been shorted some victories. His expected win total sits at 34 while he compiled just 26 wins, and hopefully that will correct itself this year. Draft with confidence.
Dee Gordon SS (LAD) - In 2 drafts I have completed Dee Gordon has gone in the 6th round in both of them. This is insane. Yes, SS is a weak position, and Gordon is entering the year as a leadoff hitter with nice speed. Still, his SB and RS upside is capped by a poor BB rate. Gordon walked in just 3% of his 233 plate appearances last season. His OBP was saved somewhat by a good average (.304), but there is no reason we should expect Gordon to hit this well again. He has no power (.058 ISO) to solidify his BA, and his .306 singles average from a year ago is not likely to be repeated. We have Gordon projected to hit .275 with 83 RS, 1 HR, 43 RBI and 49 SB. If you are taking that line in the 6th round, you are giving up a tremendous amount of value. This just goes to show subscribers why players like Troy Tulowitzki and Hanley Ramirez (when listed at SS) have such high VAM ratings.
Desmond Jennings OF (TB) - Desmond Jennings is a lot safer than your average sophomore OF speedster for a couple of reasons. First of all, he has a decent EYE (.53) that is backed by a very good walk rate for a rookie (10.8%). There is reason to believe that EYE will improve too as Jennings 20+K% should drop as he showed the ability to lay off bad pitches (chase rate 8.6 percentage points below the league average). Secondly, Jennings has more pop than you might expect, posting a .190 ISO in 287 plate appearances (.180 ISO in 397 AAA plate appearances). Don't be afraid to be aggressive on Jennings as we have him as a top 15 OF option already.
Rick Porcello SP (DET) - I am not very high on Porcello breaking out this year, particularly with Detroit's projected poor infield defense. Porcello has always had good control and a great GB rate (over 50%) but has struggled due to an inability to miss bats (career 4.84 K/9, 5.14 last season). Another problem Porcello has had is a high BABIP and low strand rate that have led to his actual ERA exceeding his expected ERA's. With Detroit's defense expected to be poor, this effect should only worsen. I'd look elsewhere for a potential breakout candidate.
Yuniesky Betancourt SS (KC) - Manager Ned Yost said that Betancourt is expected to start three or four times a weak this season. This doesn't do much for Betancourt's value as he had a pitiful .271 OBP last season. However, if Yost's estimation of Betancourt's playing time is true, that would certainly cut into the value of Alcides Escobar one would think. I for one find this tough to believe, but it is information drafters should be aware of.
