Dodgers closer - Javy Guerra is likely to enter camp and perhaps the season as the team's closer, but soon enough, it's going to be the Kenley Jansen era. Among all players in baseball history with a minimum of 50 innings pitched, Jansen set a record last year with a 16.1 K/9 rate. Looking over the last month or so of the season and that rate was actually greater than 20. Pretty dominant eh? Guerra had a 2.31 ERA, so he was far from chopped liver, but his component numbers were merely average - 7.3 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9. It wouldn't be a big surprise to see Guerra open as the closer, but Jansen's potential gets him the job at some point.
Dodgers Left Fielder - Juan Rivera has been merely average for the Dodgers with a .274/.333/.406 after coming over mid-season. He seems to be the favorite to play on Opening Day, especially considering the Dodgers felt the need to give him $4.5 million for some reason. Tony Gwynn Jr. is still around, but he's unlike to be much more than a 4th outfielder, leaving Jerry Sands as Rivera's primary competition. Sands got off to a slow starter last year, but the 24 year-old rallied to bat .342/.415/.493 in September, leaving open the possibility that Sands could win the job outright this spring. I like his long-term upside.
Giants first base - It's time for the Giants to stop jerking Brandon Belt around and let him play. The big obstacle of course is Aubrey Huff and the .891 OPS he put up....back in 2010. Huff batted just .246/.306/.370 last year, with a bat that appeared significantly slower. If you saw Huff in the outfield last year, you'll know that's not an option again this year. Huff admitted he was out of shape last year, so with Belt bearing down on his job, perhaps he'll show that he's got a little left in the tank. Belt though has a real opportunity to win the job. Don't be too concerned about the .225/.306/.412 line he put up with the Giants last year, as Belt dealt with a wrist injury and then inconsistent playing time. For the Giants to win the West, they need for Belt to step up and play every day.
Padres first base - The Padres didn't deal Mat Latos to not give the guys they got in return a real chance, so it seems likely that Yonder Alonso will get a real chance at the first base job. Jesus Guzman emerged as a 27 year-old rookie to bat .312/.369/.478 in 247 at-bats, but is that something he can sustain over a full season? Guzman has posted excellent minor league numbers since 2007, so this wasn't completely flukish. Guzman though hit just five home runs, and with the Padres searching for offense (constantly), they're probably best-served going with Alonso. He's yet to show the power predicted from him out of the draft, but that could be coming. Watch this battle closely this spring, as NL first basemen are a scarce commodity with the defections of Pujols and Fielder to the AL.
Diamondbacks first base - Paul Goldschmidt owners may have some concerns around the team bringing in a guy, Lyle Overbay, who has over 4,000 big league at-bats and a .354 OBP, but fear not. Overbay's career has been going in the wrong direction as evidenced by last year's .670 OPS. Meanwhile Goldschmidt netted 35 homers in the hitter-friendly California League in 2010, but he put concerns around whether he could hit in tougher environments and against better competition to rest by slugging .306/.435/.626 in Double-A last year before reaching the big leagues and homering eight times in 156 at-bats with a .250/.333/.474 line. Goldschmidt's power is legitimate and 30 homers appears likely, but the batting average may be an issue. His contact rates in the minors were just 69% and 75%, followed by a 66% mark in Arizona in 2011. He's likely to show some progress in that area over the course of his first full big league season, but .260 is about his ceiling for 2012.
Diamondbacks rotation - It's not a lock that Josh Collmenter will be the team's fifth starter for the balance of the year, though it does seem likely he'll start as such. Collmenter allows too many flyballs and misses too few bats (5.8 K/9 last year) to maintain much in the way of consistency. Arizona traded away Jarrod Parker in the Trevor Cahill deal, but they still have a pair of elite pitching prospects in Tyler Skaggs and Trevor Bauer who will see big league time this year. It probably won't happen right away, but one of these guys is going to push Collmenter aside before long.
A.J. Burnett (NYY/PIT) - It's looking more and more like this deal gets done today. In fact, it's very possible it's already done by the time you read this. There's lots to like about this move in terms of Burnett's value - out of the AL East, facing pitchers instead of DH's, and a less-pressurized environment (to say the least). He could thrive in the NL, though the walks are likely still going to be there. Still, I could see him approaching 190 strikeouts, making Burnett a solid sleeper. Late edit: deal appears done.
Hanley Ramirez (FLA) - It was all positive from Ramirez at a charity event this week, as he's come to terms with the move to third base and let us know that his surgically-repaired shoulder is feeling great. The former MVP candidate slumped to a career-worst .243/.444/.379 in 338 at-bats last year after starting slow and being hit with a variety of injuries during the year. On the plus side, he still walked in 12% of his PA's last year while stealing 20 bases in just 92 games. It's easy to forget that Ramirez will play all season at the tender age of 27, so seeing him get back to .300-25-100 with 25+ steals is easy to envision.
Ty Wigginton (PHI) - GM Ruben Amaro said this week that the sees Wigginton getting between 200 and 400 at-bats this year. He's likely to see time at first base early in the year given Ryan Howard's foot injury, but Wigginton will apparently also spell Chase Utley at second and Placido Polanco at third base. Wigginton is just a .265 career hitter, but he'll provide some early deeper league value given he still has some pop in his bat and he swiped a surprising eight bags in 401 at-bats last year.
Johan Santana (NYM) - Santana reportedly threw 25 pitches off a mound on Friday, the first time he's thrown since September. He reported feeling "really good", but don't read too much into this. Santana of course missed all of last year with a shoulder injury, and after an excellent year one of a six-year $137.5 million deal, Santana has made just 54 starts in the following three seasons. 32 isn't old, so there's still a chance that he recaptures at least a portion of his former glory, but his Opening Day availability remains in question. ESPN also reported earlier in the day that he was told by a Mets official that 100-125 innings from Santana would be considered a "bonus". Not good.
Michael Pineda (NYY) - Yes, news is rather scarce at this point in the spring, so pardon me if you don't think this is relevant. Pineda reportedly followed the CC Sabathia training regimen this offseason, reporting to camp at a less than svelte 280 pounds, about 20 above last year's weight. The 23 year-old faded a bit over the second half, finishing with a 3.74 ERA, 9.0 K/9, and 2.9 BB/9. It's a bit too early to worry about Pineda's weight, as there is still time for him to shed the excess baggage. If has trouble with his eating habits, he can always get advice from Sabathia.
Manny Ramirez (OAK?) - It's sounding more and more like Ramirez is going to get another chance, this time in Oakland. There really isn't any other team on the Ramirez radar, so expect a signing soon. The A's won't have to worry about finding a spot for Ramirez until game 51, but assuming he lands with the A's, it's going to push someone out of a job, perhaps the likes of Brandon Allen or Chris Carter. Manny has played in just 199 games over the past three seasons, and he hasn't been relevant as a force since 2008. Realistic expectations of Manny over 112 games? Perhaps .280 with 15 homers. Not quite the Manny of old.
Trayvon Robinson (SEA) - This could be a stretch, but Robinson has reported improved vision after switching from contacts to glasses. Perhaps he gets some ribbing from his teammates, but if it helps him be a productive big league player, it will all be worth it. Robinson posted excellent numbers in the Dodgers organization, but struggled a bit last year, batting .210 in 143 at-bats with the Mariners. Of major concern is his 57% contact rate in those at-bats (61:8 K:BB), so he'll have to really fare well this spring to open as the starting left fielder. He'll be competing with the likes of Mike Carp, Casper Wells, and Michael Saunders for playing time, but Robinson's power-speed combination gives him a leg up on the competition if he shows patience and contact ability this spring.
Raul Ibanez (NYY?) - All signs point to Ibanez, and not Johnny Damon, winding up at the Yankee's left-handed DH this season. It's an ideal landing spot for Ibanez, who would platoon with Andruw Jones while perhaps filling in in left field on occasion. Ibanez was a productive hitter for the Phillies in 2009 and 2010, but fell off a cliff last year, batting just .245/.289/.419. The power was still fairly good however, as Ibanez tallied 51 XBH's and a .174 ISO that actually exceeded 2010's number. The 6% BB% is a concern, but if he can recover some of his lost BABIP (.271 in 2011), he could still have another decent year in him, especially in that lineup and ballpark.
Koji Uehara (TEX) - The Rangers and A's are reportedly discussing a deal involving Uehara. This is significant, as Uehara as an Athletic could be first in line for saves. Oakland also has Grant Balfour and Brian Fuentes among others, but are those guys more effective than Uehara? Maybe Balfour given his solid last couple years, but Uehara bears watching.
Brandon Inge (DET) - Inge has been apparently pushed aside by Miguel Cabrera at third base, but he's also reportedly being considered for the second base job. Other candidates include Ramon Santiago, Ryan Raburn, and Danny Worth. Inge batted just .197/.265/.283 last year, so we have to consider Raburn the favorite, especially considering Inge has never played second base, but those 27 homers back in 2009 should still leave you with an open mind. Watch how this situation plays out this spring.
