News, notes and analysis from spring training camps, as I celebrate my daughter's 16th birthday...
Neftali Feliz- TEX- Control is the big question about Feliz as he moves from closer to starter for the Rangers. His BB/9 rose from 2.34 in 2010 to 4.33 in 2011 while his K/9 fell from 9.22 to 7.80. In 7 fewer IP, Feliz only threw 9 fewer pitches and his ratio of balls went up significantly. Of his 1072 pitches in 2010, 375 were balls. Last year 413 of his 1063 pitches were balls. In order to be effective as a starter, Feliz will need to have better command of his pitches than he showed last season.
Alexi Ogando- TEX- Ogando's fantasy value took a dive when the Rangers signed Yu Darvish and moved Ogando back to the bullpen in a setup role. For the second straight season, much of Ogando's success was driven by a low BABIP (.265 in 2011.) His K/9 may go up in a relief role (it dropped from 8.42 in 2010 to 6.71 last year) but unless your league counts holds, Ogando will have limited value.
Alberto Callaspo- LAA- With Mark Trumbo recovering from a stress fracture to his right foot, Callaspo has a better shot at retaining his starting third base position with the Angels. Last year Callaspo had a career high .366 OBP, which led the Angels. However his 6 homers at the hot corner weren't the kind of power production expected from that slot. Callaspo signed a 1-year contract during the offseason and the Angels are likely to replace him at third base as soon as they can.
Mark Trumbo- LAA- The 2011 AL Rookie of the Year runner up saw his spot in the Angels' lineup disappear when Albert Pujols was signed. This left the young slugger without a position since the plan is for Kendry Morales to DH. A possible shift to third base for Trumbo and his 29 homers is up in the air due to continued effects from a stress fracture in his right foot. The injury is next due to be evaluated on February 28th, so a little more clarity about Trumbo's 2012 fate might appear then.
Chris Davis- BAL- Davis is currently listed at the top of the Baltimore depth chart at first base. He may finally get a chance to show what he can do with a starting major league job. Davis' power potential is high, with 44 homers in 1005 career major league at bats. However, the power comes at the cost of selectivity. Davis has a career K% of 31.5% and a Batting EYE of .21. This will leave him susceptible to prolonged slumps and also challenges to his position.
Nick Johnson- BAL- Johnson missed all of last season and most of 2010 with a wrist injury that required numerous surgeries. He says that he is finally completely healed. His presence at Orioles camp could create a competition for the first base job with Chris Davis. Whereas Davis relies on an all or nothing power swing, Johnson brings a career .401 OBP to the table with potential to hit around 20 homers. This will be a position battle to watch and the winner could be a sleeper candidate in deep leagues.
Alex Gonzalez- MIL- Gonzalez has the starting shortstop job for the Brewers, almost by default. Milwaukee doesn't have a better player to take the job. Gonzalez will do a solid job with the glove, but that won't help his fantasy value. He may be able to contribute some homers, having hit 15 with Atlanta last season and 23 between the Braves and Blue Jays in 2010. Don't expect much in the way of average or other categories, though.
Rickie Weeks- MIL- Weeks is still feeling the effects of a severely sprained ankle suffered last July. He will still probably continue to feel it but it isn't expected to have much impact on his production. Right now, Weeks is slated to hit leadoff or fifth in the Milwaukee lineup. Either slot will give him significant fantasy value. Even in an injury-shortened season Weeks slugged 20 homers last year. Fantistics' projections have him at 24 this season, with only 498 ABs, taking into account his injury track record. If he stays healthy he could surpass that.
Clayton Kershaw- LAD- Cy Young winner Kershaw felt tightness in his back and skipped his scheduled bullpen session. He won't throw a bullpen until at least tomorrow. Considering the heavy workload Kershaw carried last season, he will be watched closely this spring for signs of fatigue.
Ryan Zimmerman- WAS- Tomorrow will be the last possible day for Zimmerman to sign an extension beyond the two years left on his contract. He says that he doesn't want contract talks to be a distraction once full-squad workouts begin the next day so if it hasn't happened by then he will wait until after the 2012 season. There is no bad blood between player and team, in fact it's the opposite. Zimmerman is likely with the Nationals for the long term, whether a deal is done by tomorrow or waits until the next offseason.
Jason Isringhausen- LAA- Isringhausen signed a minor league contract and will be arriving at the Angels camp tomorrow. He will be competing for a spot in the bullpen, but even if he gets it, isn't likely to make a significant fantasy contribution. Isringhausen has 300 career saves, but probably won't be getting many more.
Edgar Renteria- The 2010 World Series MVP may be close to retirement. The Brewers and another team offered him a minor league contract with an invitation to Major League spring training, but Renteria declined those offers. If firmer offers don't surface soon, Renteria will probably file formal retirement papers.
Mariano Rivera- NYY- Rivera is teasing about what he plans to do. He has said that he has made a decision on his baseball future but has only told family about it. Long time teammate Derek Jeter apparently is like a brother to him, as Jeter said he knows but isn't going to tell. Rivera is in the final year of his contract and the speculation is that he will hang them up after the season is done. This will only impact keeper leagues and a 40+ year old closer can't be relied on too much anyway past a current year.
Josh Johnson- MIA- Johnson threw his first bullpen session of spring training. He felt no effects from the shoulder inflammation that sidelined him for much of 2011. Johnson is scheduled to throw again tomorrow.
David Aardsma- NYA- The Yankees signed Aardsma to a major league contract. He will start the season on the DL, recovering from Tommy John surgery. The earliest Aardsma could be back in the majors is July. The main perspective, though, is for 2013, as the contract includes a club option for next season.
Cristian Guzman- CLE- Guzman passed a physical and was officially signed by the Indians, reuniting him with Manny Acta, his manager with the Nationals. Guzman missed all of last season with complications from shoulder surgery. He is expected to compete for a backup infielder role, so his fantasy value isn't expected to approach what it was at times with Minnesota and Washington.
