Jhoulys Chacin - In what will be his last start of the season, Jhoulys Chacin draws the Astros today looking for his 12th win in 2011. In 30 starts, Chacin hasn't been as sharp as he was in 2010 when he posted a 9.04 strikeout rate and 3.54 FIP. This season, Chacin's ERA is up from 3.28 to 3.66 and his FIP is 4.28. Worse for his fantasy owners, Chacin's strikeout rate has fallen by 2 batters per game but his walk rate his increased to 4.14. While Chacin isn't missing as many bats this season, his LD rate has dropped by 6% to 15% and he's improved his GB rate by 10%, which is especially good for a Rockies pitcher. Based off those peripheral numbers, I'd definitely target Chacin as a sleeper in 2012 and expect his strikeout rate to rebound into the high 7.00/low 8.00 range.
Josh Collmenter - To Josh Collmenter's credit, he's proven a lot of folks wrong by having such a successful season despite a 32% GB rate and sub-6.00 strikeout rate. Collmenter enters Sunday's start versus the Giants and Tim Lincecum with a 3.42 ERA and 3.69 FIP. He's been able to stay successful thanks to a 1.65 walk rate, 0.92 HR rate and .259 BABIP. It's that low BABIP that makes me doubt Collmenter can replicate his 2011 success in 2012. Collmenter's LD rate is 20% so he's giving up his fair share of well hit balls, but hasn't been hurt as much as you'd expect, especially for a guy who relies on fly outs so much. Collmenter should be on a roster in 12+ team leagues but don't expect him to have a lot of value in fantasy baseball next season.
Lance Berkman - The Cardinals first baseman entered Saturday's game hitting .301/.413/.552 with 31 HRs and 91 RBI. Berkman finished 1-for-4 versus the Cubs. Few people saw this type of season coming from Berkman in 2011, who posted just a .166 ISO, .248 BA and .414 SLG% in 2010. However, Berkman's been able to turn things around by hitting more line drives and fewer ground balls. He posted just a 16% line drive rate in 2010, but has upped that figure to 20% this season while also shaving 8% off his 2010 GB rate. Those changes in the types of balls he's putting in play have made a huge difference. Berkman's going to be 36 next season so there's risk in taking him as your starting first baseman. That said, if he can stay healthy, another 30 HRs are definitely in play in 2012.
R.A. Dickey - The Mets' knuckleballer faced the Phillies Saturday and tossed 7 innings, allowing 1 ER on 3 hits while striking out 4 and walking 1. Dickey's put together a nice season as he now carries the torch for all knuckleballers with Tim Wakefield at the end of his career. Dickey entered yesterday's start with a 3.35 ERA and 3.81 FIP for this season after recording a 2.84 ERA and 3.65 FIP in 2010. While his strikeout rate isn't going to eclipse 6.00, Dickey has proven for 2 straight seasons that he's a reliable SP in most league formats. He's a nice, cheap option to round out your rotation for next season.
Brandon Beachy - The Braves starter struggled against the Nationals on Saturday, allowing 4 ER in 6 innings. He didn't have good control with 4 walks but did rack up 9 strikeouts. Beachy entered the start with a 10.61 strikeout rate along with a 3.58 ERA and 3.23 FIP so he's been an excellent SP this season. The high strikeout totals help offset his low 32% GB rate. Beachy has given up a few more HRs than you'd like, but his 1.06 HR rate isn't terrible. He's never struggled with HRs in the minors so I expect he'll lower that rate with more experience. Considering he just turned 25, Beachy has a serious upside for next season.
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