Yovani Gallardo (SP - MIL): Directly after writing a post a few months back about Gallardo's value dropping he started flashing signs of his former self by posting 7 quality starts in 8 outings while posting a stellar 52:8 K:BB ratio in those 55 innings. The concern at the time when I posted about Gallardo's dropping value was a severe drop in K's that was the result of fewer swinging strikes. The swinging strike rate hasn't rebounded much, still at a career low 8.2%, but the K Rate sure has rebounded. On Thursday he struck out 8 in 4 1/3 innings of work, further that K Rate growth. Unfortunately the high strikeout totals were also accompanied by a bunch of HR's, 4 in total; as Gallardo was knocked around for 8 ER's on 9 hits and a BB. Gallardo wasn't necessarily "due" for a start like this based on his LOB% and his HR/FB Rate which were both in line with his career averages, it just appears he ran into a Cardinals offense, and specifically Albert Pujols, that had his number. Going forward, I'm still not really sure what to expect from Gallardo. His improved K Rate of late is a good sign for his value, especially when it's coupled with a higher GB Rate (above 45%) and the drop in his BB Rate this year (sub-3.0 BB/9). At those levels he's an ace. The question for me is if the K Rate in the last month (9+ K/9) can maintain without the swinging strike rate rebounding. I'm just not sure. Gallardo's always been a guy who got a lot of looking strikes and has been able to maintain great K Rates despite just ok swinging strike rates, but this year the swinging strike rates have declined further. I tend to think Gallardo's season-long numbers are the more likely indicator here of what to expect going forward. An ERA around 3.50, WHIP around 1.25 and K/9 around 8. Making him a very solid 2, but not the ace that many hoped he'd turn into.
Jason Bay (OF - NYM): There was a good two-week span in July when Jason Bay started to hit again and it made owners wonder if there was still something left in the tank. I remember highlighting his nice split against LHP and at the time suggesting he might be able to make an impact in leagues with deep benches and daily transactions. It didn't take Bay long to erase any of those optimistic thoughts and remind owners that he's simply not a good hitter anymore. Bay finished the month of July in a terrible slump that lingered into August and he's now posted four straight months with an OPS below .700. The BB and the K Rates have shown some mild signs of life in the 2nd half, but the one thing that has remained consistent with Bay is the lack of power. Without power, Bay is useless as a real-life baseball player and as a fantasy asset. With two straight years of zero signs of power, I feel comfortable in proclaiming Bay done.
Alex Presley (OF - PIT): His return has been a quiet one as the Pirates season has spiraled out of control, but Alex Presley has been given a full compliment of playing time since being activated from the DL. With Jose Tabata, Ryan Ludwick, Garrett Jones, Andrew McCutchen and others on the roster we weren't sure how the playing time would shake out with Presley, but the early signs are the Pirates will be committed to their youth down the stretch. He hasn't hit much since his return, entering Thursday's game just 4-27, but much of that appears to be luck-driven as his LD Rate since returning (29%) is still stellar. On Thursday he got September kicked off with a big start knocking out his 2nd HR of the season in a 2-4 effort. With the playing time concerns out of the way, Presley deserves a look as a back-end OF. He showed good plate discipline his first time around the league and was posting capable totals in Avg, R, SB. A potential 3 category contributor that is likely sitting on your waiver wire right now. If you're thin at the OF position give him a look.
Vance Worley (SP - PHI): Back in a July podcast I noted that I wasn't concerned about the regression Vance Worley's numbers were likely due, because I believed there was more upside in his K Rate. Worley's rewarded my faith by turning himself into one of the more consistent starters in the NL. Worley has been able to maintain the improvements he had made in his K Rate at AAA this year at the big league level and he's paired it with excellent command to solidify himself as a strong mid-rotation starter. He's certainly had some good fortune along the way (.258 BABIP, 5.7% HR/FB Rate) that is making him look more like a #2 starter when he's really more like a #3 or #4 for fantasy owners, but his 3.68 xFIP remains solid. He picked up his 10th win of the season, allowing 4 ER's on 8 hits and a walk, while striking out 7 over 6 innings of work. He's likely to see a few more balls drop for hits and a few more balls leave the yard over the remainder of the season, but his stingy command will help limit the damage. He's lined up for a 2-start week against ATL and MIL next week.
Stephen Strasburg (SP - WAS): The final tune-up for Stephen Strasburg went as well as fantasy owners could've hoped for on Thursday night. He shut down the Portland Sea Dogs with 6 innings of 1-hit ball, striking out 4 and not walking a batter. He needed just 70 pitches to breeze through 6 innings, throwing 53 of them for strikes. This sets the stage for a return on Tuesday for Strasburg in what may be a two-start week right off the bat. What has impressed me most about Strasburg's rehab has been his command and pitch efficiency. It's rare to see someone recovering from Tommy John to be able to throw strikes consistently and it's really unusual for a strikeout pitcher to have such effectiveness in limiting his pitch counts. It speaks to his sheer dominance. A truly special talent, fans of MLB and fantasy owners will be treated to Strasburg down the stretch, starting next Tuesday.
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Sep 2, 11 at 06:55 AM
Interesting to read article. Thanks for sharing.