Max Scherzer - Max Scherzer's fantasy owners get a really nice matchup today as the Tigers' right hander draws the Athletics in Oakland. Scherzer's ERA has jumped from 3.50 in 2010 to 4.27 this season and his FIP has also climbed from 3.71 a season ago to 4.14 in 2011. The biggest culprit for Scherzer's struggles is the long ball as he's allowed 1.30 HRs per game compared to just 0.92 in 2010. His HR/FB rate has also jumped from 9.6% to 12%. Besides the HRs, Scherzer's numbers are similar to last season's, except he's striking out and walking a few less batters. This is the first time in his minor or major league career that Scherzer has really struggled with the HR, so I expect him to bounce back in 2012 by yielding fewer round-trippers. Assuming he does, he should be a solid No. 4 SP in 12 or 14 team leagues.
Mike Napoli - I realize Mike Napoli isn't a very good defensive catcher but I still can't believe the Angels decided Jeff Mathis was a better option this offseason. Good grief. While Mathis barely hits better than me, Mike Napoli is slugging the heck out of the ball for the Rangers. He went 2-for-4 Wednesday with a HR and is now hitting .310/.410/.614 with 26 HRs and 67 RBI. Napoli's ISO is over .300 and he's cut his strikeout rate by 7% while improving his walk rate by 6%. The big catcher is also posting a career-best 24% HR/FB rate. Napoli turns 30 this October but he should remain one of the top 5 hitting catchers in fantasy baseball next season.
Alexi Ogando - After a torrid start to 2011 when he posted a 2.92 ERA in the first half, Alexi Ogando has cooled quite a bit in the second half, owning a 5.20 ERA entering his start against the Indians today. Ogando has recorded a 3.74 FIP, 6.69 strikeout rate and 0.90 HR rate. Despite having an ERA and FIP that are nearly identical, Ogando has been fortunate that his BABIP is just .271 considering he has yielded a 24% LD rate. There are few offenses I'd start Ogando against right now but the Indians are definitely one of them. Get him in your lineup for today. It's also worth noting that for now it appears Ogando will continue to start and not move to the bullpen, as some reports stated earlier this week. Keep an eye on this situation moving forward.
Adrian Gonzalez - Some scary news for Adrian Gonzalez's fantasy baseball owners on Wednesday as the league's second-best hitter (behind Joey Bats) left the game against the Blue Jays in the 7th inning with tightness in his calf. However, Gonzalez said after the game he expects to be in the lineup today versus the Rays so those in daily leagues take note. Prior to leaving the game, Gonzalez was 1-for-3 with his 26th HR of the season. He now owns a .340 BA with 110 RBI and a .965 OPS. I mentioned early on in the season that Gonzalez should be drafted as a top 3 fantasy baseball player this season and he's lived up to that high expectation. Next year, he'll once again be a top 3 choice along with Jose Bautista and Albert Pujols.
B.J. Upton - The Rays' outfielder went 0-for-2 with 2 walks Wednesday against the Orioles and is now hitting .234/.322/.411 for the season. Upton is generally overrated in fantasy baseball, but he's putting together a heckuva month here in September. Entering yesterday's game, Upton owned a .1.128. OPS and a .366 BA. He's already driven in 10 runs and has walked 10 times. For the season, Upton's numbers are right in line with his 2010 totals which means they aren't very impressive. Upton is now 27-years old and should be improving, not flattening out. He's got decent power and steals a good number of bases, but the low BA and OBP along with so-so Run and RBI totals make Upton a No. 3 OF at best.
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