Carlos Santana (C/1B-CLE) Santana went 2-for-5 with a home run and 2 RBI against the Twins yesterday. The home run was his twenty-fifth of the season and he improved his overall line to .239/.352/.457. Among catchers with more than 370 plate appearances, Santana is fourth in wRC+ (121), fifth in ISO (.218) and fourth in WAR (3.9). His batting average has been hurt by a below average BABIP of .264, and a jump in his strikeout rate from 15.1 percent last season to 20.3 percent despite a drop in his swinging strike rate to 8.3 percent. Another anomaly has been his walk rate. It has decreased from 19.3 to 14.9 percent despite a chase rate has dropped from 22.4 to 21.3 percent (eighth lowest among major league hitters). Santana isn't very different from what he was more than a year ago, and he should improve the numbers surrounding his strong power numbers.
Gio Gonzalez (SP-OAK) Gonzalez won his fourteenth game of the season on Saturday afternoon against the Tigers. He allowed only 1 run on 8 hits and 2 walks while striking out 4 in 7 innings of work. He lowered his ERA to 3.33 and his xFIP now stands at 3.76, an improvement over last season's 4.04 because of an improvement in his strikeout rate. His 8.73 K.9 is an improvement over his 7.67 K/9 rate in 2010, and his walk rate of 4.15 BB/9 is similar to last season's 4.13 BB/9. Gonzalez has benefited from an average fastball velocity of 92.5 mph this season, which is a career high and a significant increase from his average of 91.8 mph a year ago. According to pitch values, he has been inconsistent with his outstanding curveball this season. I maintain that if he can keep his 2011 velocity, he will improve upon his 2011 season, as he is likely to be more consistent with his curveball. His improvements in swinging strike and first pitch percentage's during each of the last three seasons are also good barometers.
Evan Longoria (3B-TB) Longoria went 1-for-3 with a walk and a RBI against the Red Sox yesterday. He has produced a nice September for himself going .315 with 4 home runs during the month. Longoria has improved his slash line to .244/.348/.492, and he has 28 home runs for the season. His batting average has been victimized by a .245 BABIP despite a line drive rate of 18.5 percent, but his run producing capabilities have not taken a hit. His 28 home runs are the second best total of his career and while his 17.3 percent HR/RB ratio is below his career average; his 45 percent fly ball rate is a career high. Furthermore, his .248 ISO is the second best of his career and his 13.1 percent walk rate and 16.9 percent strikeout rate are career bests. Look for Longoria's production to continue and his batting average to return closer to his career high once his BABIP increases next season.
Jon Lester (SP-BOS) Lester's record fell to 15-8 while his ERA increased to 3.15 after being tagged with the loss against the Rays on Saturday afternoon. He allowed 4 runs on 5 hits, 1 home run and 4 walks while striking out 5 in 7 innings of work. Despite a career best ERA, I contend that Lester has taken a step back from his 2009-2010 seasons. His xFIP of 3.59 is his highest since 2008 and he has benefited from a strand rate of 80 percent this season. His strikeout rate has declined in each of the last two seasons to 8.56 K/9, and his swinging strike rate of 8.8 percent is a drop from his 10.3 percent rate last season. Concurrently, his average fastball velocity has dropped from 93.3 to 92.7 mph, and his average cutter velocity has dropped from 89.7 mph to 88.9 mph. Lester is still a top flight fantasy option going into next season, but one should expect a season closer to 2011 than 2009-2010.
Neftali Feliz (RP-TEX) Feliz earned his twenty-seventh save of the season after pitching a 1-2-3 inning with 2 strikeouts against the Mariners on Saturday. He lowered his ERA to 2.98, and he as straightened himself out over the last two months since blowing he last save on August 6. He has allowed only 2 runs in 14.1 innings of work and his xFIP of 1.76 during September is his lowest of any month. Noticeably Feliz's velocity has gotten better over his last 10 appearances and he averaged 98.4 mph with his fastball last night and now he averaged 96.2 mph for the season. His declining peripherals have been something discussed at length this year, but now it looks like Feliz is getting things together. His xFIP of 4.36 is higher this year, but his swinging strike rate of 11.2 percent suggests his strikeout rate of 7.38 K/9 should be higher. Additionally, his 4.40 BB/9 should improve considering his first pitch strike rate (53.5 percent) and zone percentage (45.3 percent) are within his career rates. However, these points may be mute if the Rangers decide to move him into the rotation next year.
