CJ Wilson (SP-TEX) Wilson was a tough luck loser on Friday night against the Mariners. He allowed 4 runs (only 1 earned) on 6 hits, 1 home run and 2 walks while striking out 8 in 6.1 innings pitched. His record fell to 16-7 for the season, but he improved his ERA to 2.97. One cannot say enough about the season he has put together in 2011. His xFIP improved from 4.06 in 2010 to 3.38. In addition he has cut his walk rate from 4.10 BB/9 last season to 2.88 BB/9 and increased his strikeout rate from 7.50 K/9 to 8.20 K/9. Wilson is so tough because he throws five different above-average pitches mirroring Cliff Lee's similar repertoire. His average fastball velocity has increased from 90.5 mph last season to 91 mph in 2011, and owners should not be hesitant about his prospects next season. Wilson does not have a lot of innings built up in his arm because of his many seasons as a reliever, and he should be considered a top starter next season wherever he might end up.
Mark Reynolds (1B/3B-BAL) Reynolds went 2-for-4 with a home run, a double, 2 runs scored and 2 RBI in last night's win over the Angels. The home run was his thirty-third of the season, and he improved his slash line to .218/.318/.469. Reynolds 2011 season has been similar to his 2010 season, but he has been slightly more productive. His low batting average over the last few seasons is because of a BABIP of .257 (2010) and .262 (2011). While he has been unlucky, he has produced a line drive rate of 13.7 and 13.3 percent over those two seasons. His power numbers have remained steady, and I expect Reynolds to produce similar numbers next season with an improved batting average. He has cut down his strikeout rate to a career low 31.1 percent in addition to cutting his swinging strike rate to 16 percent, another career low.
Mike Moustakas (3B-KC) Moustakas had one of his best games last night since being called up in June. He helped lead the Royals to a victory over the White Sox by going 3-for-4 with a stolen base, a home run, a strikeout and 2 RBI. The home run was his fourth of the season, and he improved his slash line to .245/.293/.322. Moustakas has not had the kind of rookie season the Royals expected especially since the Eric Hosmer's great success. He has not hit with power as his .077 ISO and 2.9 percent HR/FB ratio indicate. Considering his .275 BABIP is average is somewhat low, and I would expect it to improve considering he has a line drive rate of 19.7 percent but his 22.5 percent infield flyball rate has been killing him. His walk rate (6.2 percent) and strikeout rate (14.2 percent) are what should be expected next season, and I expect him to take a big step next season. His tools are very evident, and he has hit two of his home runs over the last two games. Owners should remember that 300 plus plate appearances is a small sample size, and my guess is that Moustakas puts together a strong season in 2012.
Doug Fister (SP-DET) Fister improved his record to 9-13 after putting together another strong performance last night in his start against the A's. He allowed just 1 run on 3 hits (1 home run) while striking out 5 and walking anyone. He has made 9 starts since being acquired by the Tigers in late July, and he has allowed only more than 2 earned runs in 7 of them lowering his ERA to 2.98 for the season. His 3.67 xFIP indicates that he is likely to pitch to an ERA in the mid 3's next season, but 2011 has been a career season. His 5.98 K/9 is a career high, and his 1.62 BB/9 is a career low. Furthermore, his success has been helped by an increase in his average velocity to 89.9 mph and the increased usage of his offspeed pitches (slider, curveball and change-up). His .276 BABIP is a little below his career rate of .286 and his 5.3 HR/FB ratio is will increase next season. However, even if he regresses he has made himself into one of the more reliable starters in the American League this season. Dave Cameron of FanGraphs said it best saying he has turned himself into a version of Brad Radke.
Jonathan Papelbon (RP-BOS) Papelbon recorded his thirtieth save of the season after striking out the side against the Rays in the ninth inning. He did allow a hit, but he lowered his ERA to 2.56 for the season. Because of the Red Sox recent poor play and lack of close games, the save was his first since August 18. This season should be considered one of his best since assuming the role in 2006. His 2.22 xFIP and 1.64 FIP are career highs, and his 12.07 K/9 is the second best strikeout rate of his career and his highest since 2007. Furthermore, he has increased his swinging strike rate from 13 to 16.4 percent and lowered his walk rate to 1.51 BB/9 (his lowest since 2008). Whether Papelbon stays in Boston or moves on elsewhere because of free agency, he should still be considered one of the top closers in baseball.
