Jeremy Hellickson (SP - TB): I'm starting to feel like this is personal. After Hellickson made me look foolish by ramping up his strikeout rate, he goes out throws a nice complete game victory while recording just 1 K. As if to say, "look I can have success either way". I've maintained all season long that Hellickson would need to bring the strikeout rate up to have sustained success but on Sunday he racked up another strong start without K's. He allowed just 4 hits and didn't walk a batter and instead did something we're really not use to seeing from Hellickson: getting 16 ground outs. Hellickson's posted just a 32% GB Rate this year, entering Sunday's start, and hasn't topped 36% in a single month all season. Hellickson's baffling statistical season continues. He'll get BOS his next two times out which should prove to be challenging outings for Hellickson. I'd try to avoid them if I could, but at this point I'm not sure I have an informed opinion of what's going to happen with Hellickson.
Joe Mauer (C - MIN): I remember reading a blurb from our own Eric Nehs back in July that noted Mauer would be unlikely to get to FIVE HR's on the season based on his current peripherals. When I first read the blurb, I thought "that's a bold call". But then I re-read the peripherals Eric was highlighting and with a 15% FB Rate (at the time), he was right on. I kept that blurb tucked away in my memory when I was entertaining trade offers during the season for Mauer as a way to help guide my expectations. Well on Sunday Mauer homered in a 1-2 effort that included 2 BB's and it was just the 2nd HR of the season for Mauer in almost 300 PA's. Mauer's managed to improve his fly ball rate, but just modestly getting it up to 19.6% entering play yesterday. At that rate, Mauer just doesn't have the raw power to generate HR's and as a result his value is severely hampered. Kudos to Eric for the early read in what seemed like a bold call at the time, but was absolutely the right one. Mauer's value heading into next season is now not only dependent on his health, but on his ability to engineer more FB's again.
Matt Wieters (C - BAL): I tweeted earlier this week that those who aren't paying attention may be missing the breakout season that everyone hoped for from Wieters. The good news for those that are paying attention is that the totals for the 2011 season, won't look like much of a breakout but the strong 2nd half performance reassures fantasy analysts that it's already happened. Wieters had made small strides in the 1st half of the season, improving his performance against LHP and showing continued improvements in his K Rates. But in the 2nd half of the season, everything has come together. Wieters posted a .267 ISO in August and has hit .273/.347/.500 here in the 2nd half. He's shown further improvement in his K Rate and his BB Rate and now that the power is blossoming I believe the breakout is happening. I'd like to see it a bit more even in terms of production from different sides of the plate (1.099 OPS vs. LHP .656 OPS vs. RHP), but considering Wieters entered the season better against RHP, I have room for hope there as well. Hyped prospects almost always get a boost in average draft position for those betting on the come and while I balked at that price this year for Wieters, next year the inflated draft position will be warranted. There are a number of signs suggesting 2012 will be the start of a string of years that jump off the page statistically for Wieters.
Asdrubal Cabrera (SS - CLE): I remember when our 2nd half rankings came out and Asdrubal Cabrera was ranked as the #8 SS for the rest of the season, there was a bit of commotion over Cabrera's ranking. I admit, at the time I was a bit skeptical as well as it seemed Cabrera's big power surge was very legitimate, but if you look at the 2nd half performance .246/.318/.423 you see a performance line that's more in-line with Cabrera's career numbers. Earlier in the year when Cabrera was sacrificing contact for power, his erosion in plate discipline was considered an appropriate trade-off, but as the season's worn on and Cabrera's power month-by-month ISO has declined I'm wondering if the trade-off is a worthy one. Cabrera's still holding some of the ISO improvements, which have translated to a higher HR pace but the average continues to suffer. For the season everything looks in line but the last two months the K Rate has eclipsed 20% and the ISO has dropped down back towards .160 ISO. At those rates he's more like a 16-18 HR hitter with a .240-.250 average. Regardless of if the trade-off is a positive for Cabrera's value, I think there's enough concerns about the 2nd half looking more like the rest of Asdrubal's career that we have to take the 2011 season end numbers with a bit of a grain of salt. If you take out Cabrera's amazing May and his ugly August, the other 3 month intervals were OPS between .770 and .807. That's right where Cabrera's season totals are now (.804 OPS), and with the prior career history (.758 OPS), I think a projection around .775-.790 OPS next season will make some sense. Looking forward at Cabrera, I think a .265-84-17-78-15 is going to be a base-line projection for Cabrera next year. He's still likely to be a solid starting 2B for fantasy owners, but I think he's likely to be over-valued based on an inordinately strong 1st half.
David Murphy (OF - TEX): Murphy was my big pickup recommendation earlier in the year when Josh Hamilton went down, and it turned out to be a bad call as Murphy struggled mightily. Now with Nelson Cruz sidelined Murphy is showing some signs of life. Murphy's gone 17-37 since Cruz's injury with 6 XBH's and 2 SB's. Murphy's skill-set hasn't shown much decline this year as his plate discipline is right in line with past years as are his contact rates. The big problem for Murphy was a power outage through the first half of the season that sabotaged his value. A look at the batted ball data shows a 55% GB Rate behind that power outage. The last two months the ISO has started to rebound, but the GB Rate hasn't come with it. It's going to be difficult for Murphy to be the player I thought he could be (15 HR-15 SB) with so many balls on the ground, but with the power showing some mild signs of recovery and the opportunity there he deserves a pickup. I LOVED Murphy earlier in the year, now I like him for a short-term fill in. I think he's a viable pickup in all formats as a back-end OF and a guy that you can absolutely ride while red-hot.
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